Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's obvious none of the people here work in CPG. Any increases you see before July 1st will not be related to tarrifs. Companies stockpiled inventory in preparation to get through the quarter.

So why is UPS laying off 20,000 workers and planning to close 73 facilities if this is just business as usual?

They were quoted as saying Amazon is not a good customer and it's been in their plan to reduce their business with Amazon. They've also been aiming to replace people with automation to apply labels and sort packages. They said they had been planning this long before the tariff situation.

I fact checked this and you are correct but the tariffs were also cited as an additional factor in this decision.

“Economic uncertainty, partly driven by new U.S. tariffs under President Trump, particularly a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, is also reducing shipping volumes, especially for small and medium-sized businesses reliant on Chinese goods.”

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a bit doomsday. But I have some concerns about how people will act when the shelves are empty this time. During peak Covid shortages, most people were holed up in their houses and limiting contact with individuals. This time, that wont be the case.

It the shelves are that empty I imagine an uptick in theft especially if the prices go up with the shortage.

Stealing air? You don’t seem to get it. Do you remember the bread lines in the USSR in the 80s? Where people will line up for the chance to buy one of a couple dozen loaves of bread? We are heading to an American version of that. Low stock is easier to police for theft. More likely than theft will be large scale protests and Trump’s retaliation to those protests.

People will also smuggle good across the boarder from Mexico and Canada, whose governments are not imposing tariffs.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where does Heinz procure their ketchup bottles from?

All of the little plastic lids of every little piece of food we buy are made somewhere, not the US.

Most of our produce comes from central and south America.

Truckers won't deadhead their runs, so if there is nothing coming back, they won't go.


UPS is already seeing enough of a suspension of demand from retailers that they are laying off 20,000 drivers. What does that mean Amazon and Walmart are seeing?

So Heinz ketchup could go up a whole 5 cents. Wow. I remember when the left was fine with the price increases the last few years and now they are freaking out about pennies. So funny.

Are you unable to comprehend who makes the lids on the ketchup bottles and all the other food we receive in jars? Those lids are not made in the United States.

How will your food be sealed?

I think we'll really see the hit take it's toll and visible impacts to our daily lifestyle in mainstream US starting from summer (June/July).

In terms of how much impact, it's hard to say really, I do think on the whole inflation will be nasty - there will be rising prices everywhere. In terms of specific items, I don't know. I think it's not a good time to be in construction and real estate that's for sure. While supply chains are interdependent for almost all products, it still matters what the costs to deliver for final product is - so if you take a bottle of ketchup - you have to look at the cost of the ketchup, the container and products used to make and package, the freight/shipping costs, etc. You have to break down the ratio of how much that product is impacted by the tariff new prices to figure out what it really means to the cost of that product. The scary thing is there's so much leverage for companies to price where they want - we all assume it'll be higher so they can price however high they want in theory until nobody buys but you know, people will still buy what they want in life

I think that the worse econ is still to come, we haven't actually hit the tip of the iceberg yet. Looking at prob Q3 to really see where it's going. It'll be bad for sure but how bad, I don't know that anyone knows. Remember that with Trump, everything is constantly in flux!!! He changes directions on a whim and who knows what big global events may happen and what good luck also may befall - it's just so hard to predict these things.

I don't know that I'd hoard per se. How much can you really hoard?! You really want to eat canned goods for like 2 years? LOL How do you hoard produce like eggs and milk you know? I think you just get a lot of stuff when it's on sale when it's practical commodities but I think for the most part, it's going to impact no matter what and it can be bad for almost all of it.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's obvious none of the people here work in CPG. Any increases you see before July 1st will not be related to tarrifs. Companies stockpiled inventory in preparation to get through the quarter.

So why is UPS laying off 20,000 workers and planning to close 73 facilities if this is just business as usual?

They were quoted as saying Amazon is not a good customer and it's been in their plan to reduce their business with Amazon. They've also been aiming to replace people with automation to apply labels and sort packages. They said they had been planning this long before the tariff situation.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I hate Trump and am trying not to overreact about how he is tanking our economy, but I see a lot of “threads” about people who think we should start to stockpile supplies. And that in 6 weeks our stores will be empty. Does anyone think that’s true?

Container cargo ports are emptying out and truck traffic is way down. The people who track this say in 2-3 weeks we will see empty shelves and reduced choices. It’s a large system and there is still water in the hose. Once that is through the system there is nothing or very little behind it. This will cause layoff in manufacturing in the US.

Another point nobody is talking about is the US does not have a system for tracking and charging tariffs. Right now it is an honor system with spot checks. Trump has fires most of the people who were responsible for this. The other day the computer system crashed and the US did not collect tariffs that day. There are ways to game the system, lie or pay off people. In other words smuggling. We could see the Trump administration just looked the other way and allows large scale smuggling.

Even more reason to buy less. I don't want to pay the tariffs through higher prices when people are just smuggling them.

Anonymous wrote:I hate Trump and am trying not to overreact about how he is tanking our economy, but I see a lot of “threads” about people who think we should start to stockpile supplies. And that in 6 weeks our stores will be empty. Does anyone think that’s true?

You can view port cameras and see how few ships there are for yourself.

The 32 ounce bag of coffee I bought for $17 a couple months ago is now $22. I think we can expect a lot of that.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where does Heinz procure their ketchup bottles from?

All of the little plastic lids of every little piece of food we buy are made somewhere, not the US.

Most of our produce comes from central and south America.

Truckers won't deadhead their runs, so if there is nothing coming back, they won't go.


UPS is already seeing enough of a suspension of demand from retailers that they are laying off 20,000 drivers. What does that mean Amazon and Walmart are seeing?

So Heinz ketchup could go up a whole 5 cents. Wow. I remember when the left was fine with the price increases the last few years and now they are freaking out about pennies. So funny.

??? Are you genuinely this stupid? Or is your post intended to be satire?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a bit doomsday. But I have some concerns about how people will act when the shelves are empty this time. During peak Covid shortages, most people were holed up in their houses and limiting contact with individuals. This time, that wont be the case.

It the shelves are that empty I imagine an uptick in theft especially if the prices go up with the shortage.

Stealing air? You don’t seem to get it. Do you remember the bread lines in the USSR in the 80s? Where people will line up for the chance to buy one of a couple dozen loaves of bread? We are heading to an American version of that. Low stock is easier to police for theft. More likely than theft will be large scale protests and Trump’s retaliation to those protests.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where does Heinz procure their ketchup bottles from?

All of the little plastic lids of every little piece of food we buy are made somewhere, not the US.

Most of our produce comes from central and south America.

Truckers won't deadhead their runs, so if there is nothing coming back, they won't go.


UPS is already seeing enough of a suspension of demand from retailers that they are laying off 20,000 drivers. What does that mean Amazon and Walmart are seeing?

So Heinz ketchup could go up a whole 5 cents. Wow. I remember when the left was fine with the price increases the last few years and now they are freaking out about pennies. So funny.

I love how MAGA just parades their ignorance around.

Anonymous wrote:Where does Heinz procure their ketchup bottles from?

All of the little plastic lids of every little piece of food we buy are made somewhere, not the US.

Most of our produce comes from central and south America.

Truckers won't deadhead their runs, so if there is nothing coming back, they won't go.


UPS is already seeing enough of a suspension of demand from retailers that they are laying off 20,000 drivers. What does that mean Amazon and Walmart are seeing?

So Heinz ketchup could go up a whole 5 cents. Wow. I remember when the left was fine with the price increases the last few years and now they are freaking out about pennies. So funny.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's obvious none of the people here work in CPG. Any increases you see before July 1st will not be related to tarrifs. Companies stockpiled inventory in preparation to get through the quarter.

So why is UPS laying off 20,000 workers and planning to close 73 facilities if this is just business as usual?

I don't know about timing, but this idea has been bandied about by UPS for a while. Their goal is to become less dependent upon Amazon.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Americans need to buy less crap from China.

That's true. But it's also true that the tariffs will cripple our economy. Both things can be true at the same time.

Well surprise, no one will be buying much of anything from anywhere!

Anonymous wrote:This is a bit doomsday. But I have some concerns about how people will act when the shelves are empty this time. During peak Covid shortages, most people were holed up in their houses and limiting contact with individuals. This time, that wont be the case.

It the shelves are that empty I imagine an uptick in theft especially if the prices go up with the shortage.