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Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?

I don’t think you understand betting markets. Taking a position is not a vote, it’s a way to make money by making a prediction of what is going to happen. That the users are not representative, doesn’t mean anything unless users are consciously throwing away their own money. If betting markets are efficient, they will represent the consensus forecast because people wanting to make money - and everyone wants to make money - will take positions when the odds do not align with their own expectations. They are thus as good an indication as anything of the likelihood of either candidate being elected.

As PP at 18:11 pointed out, they're not. Arbitrage opportunities abound!

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Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?

I don’t think you understand betting markets. Taking a position is not a vote, it’s a way to make money by making a prediction of what is going to happen. That the users are not representative, doesn’t mean anything unless users are consciously throwing away their own money. If betting markets are efficient, they will represent the consensus forecast because people wanting to make money - and everyone wants to make money - will take positions when the odds do not align with their own expectations. They are thus as good an indication as anything of the likelihood of either candidate being elected.

As PP at 18:11 pointed out, they're not. Arbitrage opportunities abound!

Anonymous wrote:How does one place a bet? I'm hearing 60-40.
So I can bet 200 on Harris and make a quick 300.

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Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?

I don’t think you understand betting markets. Taking a position is not a vote, it’s a way to make money by making a prediction of what is going to happen. That the users are not representative, doesn’t mean anything unless users are consciously throwing away their own money. If betting markets are efficient, they will represent the consensus forecast because people wanting to make money - and everyone wants to make money - will take positions when the odds do not align with their own expectations. They are thus as good an indication as anything of the likelihood of either candidate being elected.

Anonymous wrote:Trump’s odds rebounded today.

PredictIt now has Trump and Harris even at 54c.

Polymarket has Trump at 59.7% vs Harris at 40.5%.

Kalshi has Trump at 56% vs Harris at 44%.

DJT stock rose 12% today, but TSLA and Bitcoin both fell.

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?

I don’t think you understand betting markets. Taking a position is not a vote, it’s a way to make money by making a prediction of what is going to happen. That the users are not representative, doesn’t mean anything unless users are consciously throwing away their own money. If betting markets are efficient, they will represent the consensus forecast because people wanting to make money - and everyone wants to make money - will take positions when the odds do not align with their own expectations. They are thus as good an indication as anything of the likelihood of either candidate being elected.

Maybe. I'm not saying it's not interesting to look at them, but it's very possible there's a bias among the people that are placing the bets. They might not even realize it.

ya think?

They aren't even legal in the US, so it isn't Americans putting this money down and in many cases, it is billionaires tossing money around as a manipulation scheme. the fact that people posting here took it seriously enough as a barameter or metric is the tell.

Incorrect.

US citizens/residents may place money legally on both Predictit and Kalshi.

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Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?

I don’t think you understand betting markets. Taking a position is not a vote, it’s a way to make money by making a prediction of what is going to happen. That the users are not representative, doesn’t mean anything unless users are consciously throwing away their own money. If betting markets are efficient, they will represent the consensus forecast because people wanting to make money - and everyone wants to make money - will take positions when the odds do not align with their own expectations. They are thus as good an indication as anything of the likelihood of either candidate being elected.

Maybe. I'm not saying it's not interesting to look at them, but it's very possible there's a bias among the people that are placing the bets. They might not even realize it.

ya think?

They aren't even legal in the US, so it isn't Americans putting this money down and in many cases, it is billionaires tossing money around as a manipulation scheme. the fact that people posting here took it seriously enough as a barameter or metric is the tell.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?

I don’t think you understand betting markets. Taking a position is not a vote, it’s a way to make money by making a prediction of what is going to happen. That the users are not representative, doesn’t mean anything unless users are consciously throwing away their own money. If betting markets are efficient, they will represent the consensus forecast because people wanting to make money - and everyone wants to make money - will take positions when the odds do not align with their own expectations. They are thus as good an indication as anything of the likelihood of either candidate being elected.

Maybe. I'm not saying it's not interesting to look at them, but it's very possible there's a bias among the people that are placing the bets. They might not even realize it.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?

I don’t think you understand betting markets. Taking a position is not a vote, it’s a way to make money by making a prediction of what is going to happen. That the users are not representative, doesn’t mean anything unless users are consciously throwing away their own money. If betting markets are efficient, they will represent the consensus forecast because people wanting to make money - and everyone wants to make money - will take positions when the odds do not align with their own expectations. They are thus as good an indication as anything of the likelihood of either candidate being elected.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?