Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sequence if returns risk is why I will probably never feel comfortable retiring. I have enough to retire but not enough to retire into a prolonged down market..

My advisor has me keep two years worth of liquid funds outside of the market, so I would not have to tap in if there was a downturn.

They have not historically lasted that long.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sequence if returns risk is why I will probably never feel comfortable retiring. I have enough to retire but not enough to retire into a prolonged down market..

My advisor has me keep two years worth of liquid funds outside of the market, so I would not have to tap in if there was a downturn.

They have not historically lasted that long.

There are a couple of issues with that advice. The future is unknown. If you think the future will be like the past, then a downturn can easily last 10 yrs. And your performance is almost guaranteed to take a hit by having money tied up in bonds or cash.

I'm not saying that you shouldn't invest in bonds (you probably should), but their is a downside to pretty much every strategy. Reducing your withdrawal rate to 3% or doing one of the variable strategies is what I'll probably end up doing.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sequence if returns risk is why I will probably never feel comfortable retiring. I have enough to retire but not enough to retire into a prolonged down market..

My advisor has me keep two years worth of liquid funds outside of the market, so I would not have to tap in if there was a downturn.

They have not historically lasted that long.

Anonymous wrote:I think the average person near retirement has way more money than they think they have.

I have no money. But I started adding up my none money and it adds up.

I have a few 401Ks some from old companies They are 2 million. My wife has not worked in years but she has an old 401k worth one million I found, also found a old 100K cash balance pension, 400K in old stock grants, 300k in CDs that are rolling, and old brokerage account for 120k and another old brokerage account with 1.5 million, a left over 529 with 70K and some old Ibonds worth 20K. I even realized my 4 paid off cars are worth over 100k.

People should add up their lost money. Throw in home equity which is at least one million most people you should be fine even if you retire penniless.


You “found” one million dollars?

Sometime is very off with your family’s way of doing things.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I thought conventional wisdom says you need 10xs your income. So you need 2.5

No, conventional wisdom is 30x your income, or less conservative, 25x your income.

Anonymous wrote:Sequence if returns risk is why I will probably never feel comfortable retiring. I have enough to retire but not enough to retire into a prolonged down market..

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And maintain current $250K income. Well, I only have 3.2 at 53 outside of home (no mortgage). What’s the best way to manage the next 10-15 years to meet this goal?

how does one come this far in life and need to crowd source these questions?

your money will double in 10 years if you do absolutely nothing . 🤦🏻‍♀️

Ugh...it's comments like these that make me wonder when we will have the next era of horrible stock market performance.

Tell that to the folks that put their money in the stock market in 1965, only for the market to drop 70% through 1982.

yea and by 1986 it had doubled from 1982, 1995 doubled again from 86, 2 year later in 98 it doubled again.

you have good years and bad years. I’ve been investing since 1999 and my annual growth and dividends from stocks now outpace my w2 wage slave income and I’m 49yrs old.

This is dangerous thinking. If you retired in 1965 and lost 70% of your investments through 1982, AND were having to have additional losses to fund your yearly expenses, you will probably never recovered in our lifetime.

We are discussing RETIREMENT on this thread, not being 30 and living through massive corrections. Two very different scenarios.

This is my biggest concern. Sequence of Return Risk. Retiring into a downturn, correction, crash. It is well documented and a must-understand for people who invest.
Sequence of returns risk is the risk of negative market returns occurring late in your working years and/or early in retirement. At this stage of your investment life, market downturns can have a much more significant impact on your portfolio and your lifetime income strategy.

Anonymous wrote:Let's assume you save 30K a year in your 401k so subtract that since you wont be doing that, then another 10K for 529s and other savings, now subtract 10K for payroll taxes. Thats 200K so you'd need 5 million instead.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And maintain current $250K income. Well, I only have 3.2 at 53 outside of home (no mortgage). What’s the best way to manage the next 10-15 years to meet this goal?

how does one come this far in life and need to crowd source these questions?

your money will double in 10 years if you do absolutely nothing . 🤦🏻‍♀️

Ugh...it's comments like these that make me wonder when we will have the next era of horrible stock market performance.

Tell that to the folks that put their money in the stock market in 1965, only for the market to drop 70% through 1982.

yea and by 1986 it had doubled from 1982, 1995 doubled again from 86, 2 year later in 98 it doubled again.

you have good years and bad years. I’ve been investing since 1999 and my annual growth and dividends from stocks now outpace my w2 wage slave income and I’m 49yrs old.

This is dangerous thinking. If you retired in 1965 and lost 70% of your investments through 1982, AND were having to have additional losses to fund your yearly expenses, you will probably never recovered in our lifetime.

We are discussing RETIREMENT on this thread, not being 30 and living through massive corrections. Two very different scenarios.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And maintain current $250K income. Well, I only have 3.2 at 53 outside of home (no mortgage). What’s the best way to manage the next 10-15 years to meet this goal?

how does one come this far in life and need to crowd source these questions?

your money will double in 10 years if you do absolutely nothing . 🤦🏻‍♀️

Ugh...it's comments like these that make me wonder when we will have the next era of horrible stock market performance.

Tell that to the folks that put their money in the stock market in 1965, only for the market to drop 70% through 1982.

yea and by 1986 it had doubled from 1982, 1995 doubled again from 86, 2 year later in 98 it doubled again.

you have good years and bad years. I’ve been investing since 1999 and my annual growth and dividends from stocks now outpace my w2 wage slave income and I’m 49yrs old.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And maintain current $250K income. Well, I only have 3.2 at 53 outside of home (no mortgage). What’s the best way to manage the next 10-15 years to meet this goal?

how does one come this far in life and need to crowd source these questions?

your money will double in 10 years if you do absolutely nothing . 🤦🏻‍♀️

Ugh...it's comments like these that make me wonder when we will have the next era of horrible stock market performance.

Tell that to the folks that put their money in the stock market in 1965, only for the market to drop 70% through 1982.

yea and by 1986 it had doubled from 1982, 1995 doubled again from 86, 2 year later in 98 it doubled again.

you have good years and bad years. I’ve been investing since 1999 and my annual growth and dividends from stocks now outpace my w2 wage slave income and I’m 49yrs old.