Anonymous wrote:It hurts the current administration and in this case Harris.

Unfortunately. The treasury yield inverted curve has been going on for 5 years now. Empirical data indicates that we have been overdue for a recession. The trillion dollar question is when. Could be anytime under anybody.

Any talk of a recession -- it all comes down to this...is there any instability in the world?

Let's see....war in the Middle East, riots across all of UK, politics in US, Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina flees w/ army as interim gov't....

Instability = Market Crashes = Recession

It's the economy stoopid!

The stock market is not going affect my vote. I’m in for Harris.

While nobody likes to see their net worth take a hit, our portfolio is balanced accordingly for our age range. The stock market is cyclical and it will eventually rebound.

Really, there is nothing that would change my vote to Trump. He represents the worst of humanity.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Futures are down less than 4%. Certainly not great, but not a crash by any means.

NASDAQ futures are down almost 6%. Google is down almost 10%, apple 10%, Microsoft 10%...these are all the heaviest hitters in the market and in everyone's portfolios.. Trillions in wealth about to go up in smoke..

Further confirmation that it’s not a stock market crash, and instead a correction in the tech sector. Now that market is open, S&P is down less than 3%. Nothing to get freaked out about.

Anyone that thinks the stock market's performance has anything to do with the president should not be investing in the stock market.

I think the market is in correction mode. It's been so high for so long - there's a lot of daily life that's not as nice but the markets have ignored this. This inflation feels a bit different than the rest. Food prices are extremely high - if you eat out at all you know what I'm talking about. Everything is more $$$ now across the board and I think some of it is related to climate change.

Regardless the reasons, I think people are somewhat in a panic psychologically over the state of the world as a whole. America is not a happy place other than stock market. The market has been kinda insulated - trading is a kind of gambling and so far, people have been able to to do that because the markets have been so healthy for so long. So - everything has not been rosy except for the stock market and it's the market's turn to to get a taste of real life now.

I don't know how long this correction will last but history would assume it won't last too long. Once the market corrects, people go back to using it as what it always will be - a platform by which to make more money and that does take risk so people will just do it no matter what. We're far from a recession - people have too much money these days. We're flying all over the place, we have money from stocks and people do have jobs still. There's definitely money it's a matter of where people want to be spending. So for that reason I think markets will be fine before November for sure. How fine I can't say but we're not going to go into a recession or crash. We will however be correcting which is always a hard place for people.

This benefits Trump of course but I don't see it helping him as much. Psychologically, Kamala still has an edge.

Anonymous wrote:

Area man who thinks the President controls the stock market line going up or down

And this is why I come to DCUM.

Thanks for the explainer

A “crash”? The U.S. stock market is the highest it has ever been, ever: https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

Biden’s time in office has coincided with an incredible run for stock valuations. A small dip is not necessarily a bad thing.

Anonymous wrote:This is the result of the unwinding of the yen carry trade (where traders borrow cheap yen at 0% interest rate and invest in US equities and bonds at a risk free rate of 5.25%+). The BoJ raised rates last week and the Fed is definitely starting the rate cuts in September. The JPY and USD are starting to get back to parity; Japanese goods and tourism won't be as cheap anymore for US buyers.

Those traders engaged in the yen carry trade are closing out their positions before they get destroyed. So they sell their US assets (read: stocks) in order to pay back their borrowed money from Japanese banks before the yen gets even more expensive.

Good discussion here:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/your-stocks-now-trade-at-the-mercy-of-the-japanese-yen-be5852f9

In short, it's oversold. Some hedge funds will go belly up, but the market chugs along.

Anonymous wrote:This is the result of the unwinding of the yen carry trade (where traders borrow cheap yen at 0% interest rate and invest in US equities and bonds at a risk free rate of 5.25%+). The BoJ raised rates last week and the Fed is definitely starting the rate cuts in September. The JPY and USD are starting to get back to parity; Japanese goods and tourism won't be as cheap anymore for US buyers.

Those traders engaged in the yen carry trade are closing out their positions before they get destroyed. So they sell their US assets (read: stocks) in order to pay back their borrowed money from Japanese banks before the yen gets even more expensive.

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