Colby, Grinnell, Tulane, Carleton can be considered as safety

We're in CA and my kid has more or less exactly the profile described by OP, at a top private.
In addition to the UCs, which are hard to predict--hard to say whether any of the mid-to-upper tier UCs are safeties, probably not -- Madison is most or less a safety (based on school data we've seen).

Seems some are conflating "overqualified" and "better than" than a school given the person's stats, versus high likelihood of admission.

GWU is a safety. American is a safety. SMU is a safety.

Villanova is most likely a safety unless they yield protect.

BC will not be.

The OP has top 10 stats, but that doesn't mean he's guaranteed admission to BC, BU, NEU, NYU, etc.

He likely will go to a better school than BC, BU, NEU, NYU. NEU might just offer first semester study abroad to him, or NYU looks at his financial profile and passes, or BC might pass because while the stats are special, maybe someone from his county is more appealing for whatever reason.

If I was advising this kid, I would flat out tell him to plan on applying/attending an Columbia, UPenn, Brown, or Stanford, UChicago but also apply to 5-7 BC, BU-quality schools just in case.

State flagship for your true safety and then go on with your life.

Anonymous wrote:The problem is that most of the private schools in the T-20-50 take very few kids RD and may yield protect. Look for private schools with EA. Otherwise I’d look for state schools that admit based on stats.

My kid cleaned up RD in T-10s and T-20s after a GU EA deferral. Headed to an Ivy next year. We were shocked at the number of reach (only due to single digit acceptance rates) schools kid was accepted to.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those Stats are really good - I would think Chicago, NorthEastern and Cornell would be likely but not necessarily safeties....also UVA

Nope. My kid with these stats, ECs, also Calc BC in 10th etc was waitlisted at NEU (EA) and Cornell (RD). Also as Case. So none of those are likely. CS major though, which made things tougher.

From your criteria some possibilities: GWU, Drexel, Fordham? Would help to know major.

NE yield protects.

Anonymous wrote:Let’s say you have the stats to qualify for an Ivy - 4.0 UW, 1550 or greater SAT, 10 plus APS w all 5s, several years post BC calc math. national recognition in more than one area, lots of leadership, NMSF, etc

What are targets / safeties (not in state for MD or UVA)

Not a recruited athlete or URM

Want both STEM and humanities
Prefer midsize but open to larger
Like city / city adjacent
Prefer a campus, but would consider a more open campus
Not super Greek
Like Boston , DC, NY, Chicago but open to Philly , SF, NC

Not sure what is a safety/ target nowadays ? Everywhere seems harder to get in and some places yield protect

Based on your description, I would
Target: UChicago, Boston University
Safety: Your state schools

Anonymous wrote:The problem is that most of the private schools in the T-20-50 take very few kids RD and may yield protect. Look for private schools with EA. Otherwise I’d look for state schools that admit based on stats.

Was going to suggest this too. UMD is close to DC. Its a big school though but your kid might get some good scholarship money

Anonymous wrote:Those Stats are really good - I would think Chicago, NorthEastern and Cornell would be likely but not necessarily safeties....also UVA

Nope. My kid with these stats, ECs, also Calc BC in 10th etc was waitlisted at NEU (EA) and Cornell (RD). Also as Case. So none of those are likely. CS major though, which made things tougher.

From your criteria some possibilities: GWU, Drexel, Fordham? Would help to know major.

The problem is that most of the private schools in the T-20-50 take very few kids RD and may yield protect. Look for private schools with EA. Otherwise I’d look for state schools that admit based on stats.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:CMU - other than CS

Ha yes, my CS major DC had higher stats than that and was rejected, including Cal, Stanford, UCLA, and even GA Tech.

How can these stats be higher?

4.0, 1600, 12 APs with all 5s.

Anything below a 20-25% acceptance rate is a reach for all, regardless of stats. People might disagree, and your results might disagree in the end, but IMO this is a safe way to approach targets and safeties. Your student being at the top level of stats for most schools should look for any school of interest with a high acceptance rate - like above 60%, for a safety. IMO that would be a true safety for your student. Anything lower would be a target until you hit 25%ish - and reach zone. Good luck and congrats on the great stats.

I think PPs are not acknowledging how much colleges protect their yield. If it is obvious to you all that the student is above the school's level, then it is obvious to the admissions office and the school will waitlist the student.

This is why kids feel pressured to apply to twenty schools. This kid will get into a bunch of schools but the reaches are all unpredictable and a lot of the so-called targets will waitlist.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wash U
Richmond
Tufts
Northeastern
Villanova
Lehigh
Michigan

WashU, Tufts, Northeastern and Michigan are NOT targets or Safeties for anyone, even "ivy qualified"
Anything with less than 20% acceptance rate is a Reach for everyone

Not true. Three of those are targets and one is a safety for a non-big 3 but well known private school in Virginia, for a kid at the top of the class rank-wise with the stats OP listed, as long as the kid can write well and has great recs / not an a$$hole

Not for very many private schools. For vast majority of private and Public HS kids, those are NOT targets or safeties. Simple math. Single digit acceptance rates Make it a reach for everyone.

Anonymous wrote:Those Stats are really good - I would think Chicago, NorthEastern and Cornell would be likely but not necessarily safeties....also UVA

here's the thing, when acceptance rates are single digits, those stats do NOT put anyone into "likely" categories. NEU has 96K+ applications for 3-4K Boston spots and another 4-5K offers for non-boston spots. Even with ED, it's not a likely

Anonymous wrote:Case, U Rochester, Wake, Davidson

+1

I can attest that Case and U Rochester are filled with Ivy stats kids, who didn't get in/got WL/Got sophomore or spring freshman year admissions.