It feels like people are a little delusional on the magnitude / impact of rate cuts. The fed may indeed cut rates a few times in the next year or so, which might mean short term rates end up somewhere near 4.5% (from 5.25% currently). The ten-year, which mortgages are based off of, is around 4.2% right now. Even if the ten year didn't budge, we'd still have a slightly inverted yield curve, which is abnormal. No reason to expect, necessarily, that the ten-year will drop in parallel, and hence that mortgage rates will drop significantly, particularly if inflation sticks around.

That means, as usual, that you should buy now if you find something you like and can afford. But don't pretend you know the future and can say with any kind of certainty that short term rate cuts mean long-term / mortgage rate drops mean prices go up more.

If you see a house you like then BUY NOW. My neighbor just secured a 6.0% on a 30 year mortgage today and plans on refinancing in the Fall when rates go down again. The house they found received multiple offers, which will be even more common once the Fed starts to lower rates in (most likely) September.

Anonymous wrote:I thought almost everyone in this area is “all cash”? If so, rate cuts make no difference.

Why do you think almost everyone offers all cash?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When do we think rates will drop below 5%?

M
Every night in your dreams.

Well, of course! Any other guesses?

Anonymous wrote:When do we think rates will drop below 5%?

Every night in your dreams.

When do we think rates will drop below 5%?

Anonymous wrote:As interest rates drop there will be more buyers, so it's better to buy now if you can afford it. Historically, prices will go up when rates drop, especially since supply is still pretty low.

+1 THIS ^^^

As interest rates drop there will be more buyers, so it's better to buy now if you can afford it. Historically, prices will go up when rates drop, especially since supply is still pretty low.

Anonymous wrote:I thought almost everyone in this area is “all cash”? If so, rate cuts make no difference.

If by "almost everyone" you mean "around 30%", then yes, almost everyone in this area is all cash.

The market feels very soft right now in sought after location (CC MD). I would try to buy now and perhaps even negotiate down. Houses in my neighborhood are sitting. Although, sitting at higher price point, $2.6+

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prices are already up now from January when we first started looking. There’s no reason to think they’ll go down in the immediate future.

There are lots of reasons — the election, inflation, a stock market bubble, commercial real estate perhaps taking down banks, a black swan event etc. You might not find the reasons to be compelling but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist.

Those are highly unlikely scenarios. It is FAR more likely that our economy will stay strong, inflation will continue to fall, and the Fed will have multiple rate cuts, the first of which should be in Sept.

Sure, something totally unexpected could happen but decisions should be based on facts, data, and likely scenarios. The most likely scenario is that housing prices will rise when rates start to drop.

I didn’t know market crashes could be predicted with such certainty. You must be a billionaire based on your ability to predict them.

I see we've found one of the hordes who have been certain there would be crash "any day now" for the past 15 years so that they can finally pounce on the market. The evidence for it to happen is always, of course, "because I want it to".

+1 They're not serious buyers. They spend lots of time looking and maybe even make lowball offers that don't stand a chance. Even if the market does one day crash, it's not clear that they would be better off waiting and living in rentals for over a decade.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prices are already up now from January when we first started looking. There’s no reason to think they’ll go down in the immediate future.

There are lots of reasons — the election, inflation, a stock market bubble, commercial real estate perhaps taking down banks, a black swan event etc. You might not find the reasons to be compelling but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist.

Those are highly unlikely scenarios. It is FAR more likely that our economy will stay strong, inflation will continue to fall, and the Fed will have multiple rate cuts, the first of which should be in Sept.

Sure, something totally unexpected could happen but decisions should be based on facts, data, and likely scenarios. The most likely scenario is that housing prices will rise when rates start to drop.

I didn’t know market crashes could be predicted with such certainty. You must be a billionaire based on your ability to predict them.

I see we've found one of the hordes who have been certain there would be crash "any day now" for the past 15 years so that they can finally pounce on the market. The evidence for it to happen is always, of course, "because I want it to".

If you find a house you like then you should definitely buy now.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prices are already up now from January when we first started looking. There’s no reason to think they’ll go down in the immediate future.

There are lots of reasons — the election, inflation, a stock market bubble, commercial real estate perhaps taking down banks, a black swan event etc. You might not find the reasons to be compelling but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist.

Those are highly unlikely scenarios. It is FAR more likely that our economy will stay strong, inflation will continue to fall, and the Fed will have multiple rate cuts, the first of which should be in Sept.

Sure, something totally unexpected could happen but decisions should be based on facts, data, and likely scenarios. The most likely scenario is that housing prices will rise when rates start to drop.

I didn’t know market crashes could be predicted with such certainty. You must be a billionaire based on your ability to predict them.

I thought almost everyone in this area is “all cash”? If so, rate cuts make no difference.