You can go to the PVS site and look up the top 10&u times from 6, 8, 10 years ago and track how those same names fared over time. I scanned the 2014-2015 list of top 10&u times and noted a lot of the familiar names; kids who stayed at the top of the pack locally as they aged up and were highly ranked college recruits (e.g., Katherine Helms, Sophie Duncan, Erin Gemmell, J. T. Ewing, Aiken Do, Andrew Bolz, Landon Gentry). People don't like to admit it, but sometimes the fastest kids at 10&u are the fastest 18 year olds too.

Anonymous wrote:On the flip side, what happens to the kids who are fast but tiny?

Really depends on their growth trajectory. If they hit puberty and become reasonably tall and newly able to gain lots of muscle, they usually overtake the previously fastest but big boned kids. Since they have always had to work harder and perfect technique, they are ahead of the game. However, if they are genetically going to be tiny adults, it is generally much harder for them to keep up as others gain the height and strength. I will say though that hugeness is really not necessary for swimming. So many of the boys at our club heading to top D1 programs are under 6 feet (like 5’10-5’11, not 5’7). I agree it is hardest for the girls who become very curvy.

Anonymous wrote:On the flip side, what happens to the kids who are fast but tiny?

It depends what puberty does to them. There are a lot of small young swimmers that are fast. They tend to be very lean and usually they have mastered the efficiency in the water and that is amazing.

If they end up eventually getting height they will be the swimmers that will make Nationals, etc. If they end up being short and stocky (boys) or shorter and curvier (boobs are not good) then they usually cannot dominate because the kids that are still perfecting technique (which speeds them up) and getting the physical height will end up overtaking them.

On the flip side, what happens to the kids who are fast but tiny?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here, my kid is huge for his age so in this situation but not likely to be a huge adult. Trying to manage expectations.

My kid won't be big either but was actually better at 12 even though others passed her in size. I think her technique really improved. My hunch is she will continue to be "good" at 13/14 and then peter out in HS when she realizes she can't swim the college programs she is dreaming of. My hope is she now loves it enough to enjoy her HS seasons ahead.

I have a kid who is small and just a fierce racer. She oftentimes beats out the bigger girls because of grit. Turns out her technique has a lot of room for improvement. So she is focusing on that now and dropping more time. She has a chance for height and wants to swim in college. But, as long as she just loves it like she does now, I will be happy

Anonymous wrote:OP here, my kid is huge for his age so in this situation but not likely to be a huge adult. Trying to manage expectations.

My kid won't be big either but was actually better at 12 even though others passed her in size. I think her technique really improved. My hunch is she will continue to be "good" at 13/14 and then peter out in HS when she realizes she can't swim the college programs she is dreaming of. My hope is she now loves it enough to enjoy her HS seasons ahead.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many times the kids who are big (not just tall) and powerful at the younger ages end up being too big/heavy for swimming long term. Swimming is a sport that favors the naturally long and lean body type.

Yep, football player build is not a good swimmer’s build (plus many of these kids end up overweight).

Depends. DH has this build and was a D1 sprinter who still holds school records.

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Anonymous wrote:Many times the kids who are big (not just tall) and powerful at the younger ages end up being too big/heavy for swimming long term. Swimming is a sport that favors the naturally long and lean body type.

Yep, football player build is not a good swimmer’s build (plus many of these kids end up overweight).

Actually, a lot of that is controllable. A football player works out differently to a swimmer and their body looks different. A lot of kids, if they stuck to swimming would look different.

Yeah, no. You can't engineer your body type. Just ask a whole generation of women who dreamed of being ballerinas as young girls.

How many young girls do you know who play football?

DP. I know one.

But i am troubled by the analogies we are making in this thread about dancers and football players vs swimmers. There are many beautiful dancers that don’t have the perfect ballerina “look”. The issues with body type and ballet are the last thing I’d want to see mirrored in swimming culture. And there are lots of highly athletic football players that could be great swimmers!

If you work at maximizing your own body’s potential, it usually means you’re going to be pretty darn good at whatever you train for.

I’m the PP. This is definitely what I was getting at. You just wrote it much better.

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many times the kids who are big (not just tall) and powerful at the younger ages end up being too big/heavy for swimming long term. Swimming is a sport that favors the naturally long and lean body type.

Yep, football player build is not a good swimmer’s build (plus many of these kids end up overweight).

Actually, a lot of that is controllable. A football player works out differently to a swimmer and their body looks different. A lot of kids, if they stuck to swimming would look different.

Yeah, no. You can't engineer your body type. Just ask a whole generation of women who dreamed of being ballerinas as young girls.

How many young girls do you know who play football?

DP. I know one.

But i am troubled by the analogies we are making in this thread about dancers and football players vs swimmers. There are many beautiful dancers that don’t have the perfect ballerina “look”. The issues with body type and ballet are the last thing I’d want to see mirrored in swimming culture. And there are lots of highly athletic football players that could be great swimmers!

If you work at maximizing your own body’s potential, it usually means you’re going to be pretty darn good at whatever you train for.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many times the kids who are big (not just tall) and powerful at the younger ages end up being too big/heavy for swimming long term. Swimming is a sport that favors the naturally long and lean body type.

Yep, football player build is not a good swimmer’s build (plus many of these kids end up overweight).

Actually, a lot of that is controllable. A football player works out differently to a swimmer and their body looks different. A lot of kids, if they stuck to swimming would look different.

Yeah, no. You can't engineer your body type. Just ask a whole generation of women who dreamed of being ballerinas as young girls.

How many young girls do you know who play football?

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many times the kids who are big (not just tall) and powerful at the younger ages end up being too big/heavy for swimming long term. Swimming is a sport that favors the naturally long and lean body type.

Yep, football player build is not a good swimmer’s build (plus many of these kids end up overweight).

Actually, a lot of that is controllable. A football player works out differently to a swimmer and their body looks different. A lot of kids, if they stuck to swimming would look different.

Yeah, no. You can't engineer your body type. Just ask a whole generation of women who dreamed of being ballerinas as young girls.

+1 I was an amazing 10 and under with the medals to prove it, then I got boobs and never got taller than 5’3”.

This was the scenario I saw the most as a female swimmer. I remember wanting to gain weight to be "big" like the girls who were beating me at 12 and under. Then as we got to 13-14 those girls became curvy and their height topped out at 5'7" max. They were nationally ranked (top 16?) in the younger ages but then barely improved in the teen years. Meanwhile I grew to be very tall and eventually "filled out" but even after puberty I was lean and not curvy. I had also developed a great work ethic and technique because I wasn't naturally the fastest. Those other girls hated practice and didn't like that it was starting to require hard work.

I think it's less predictable for boys. But for girls with short and curvy moms and dads who aren't taller than average, odds are puberty will not be helpful for their swimming.

On the boys side, here is how it breaks down as someone with two boys who have gone through swimming ages 8-18 in a few different clubs: The early maturers dominate 12& under. Then there are two paths those swimmers take. 1. The boys who matured early who were crazy fast stay crazy fast but other kids do catch up so that cohort of kids remains fast enough for D1 but plenty of kids who matured late catch up. 2. The early maturers quit. I would say the breakdown is 30/70. Meaning, most early maturers do not stay fast relative to the competition, but roughly 30% do. The good news for those of us with late maturers is they do catch up with the right training and work ethic.

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Anonymous wrote:There are also some really big 10y/olds who swim at a snails pace. Chalking early success up to size is really oversimplifying things. Some kids are just better at swimming than others. If your kid is good now, they’ll likely want to continue swimming. Every swim kid has to deal with a slump at some point.

There are 10 yo girls who are well into puberty and 5'6" and 115 lbs. My 10 yo is 50" and 53 lbs. Based on a conversation with her pediatrician she's likely going to hit puberty at 13 yo--well on the late side. It does matter. It's not everything, but it absolutely matters.

Some 10 yo girls are built like teens and others are still built like little kids. (The same split happens for boys, but a bit later.)

I have a 13 year old swimmer whose doctor told me I have another 2 years before puberty. She has just started growing and at 5 feet and some change is well below the height of all of her friends who have had their periods and have stopped growing. Her dad if 6’5” and I am 5’8” so she has a chance at some height but probably won’t hit it until 15-16. Three years is a long time to be fighting to keep up with the 5’5” and 5’6” girls. So she has to keep loving it.

Both of these cases are very rare.

There isn't a single 5'4" 10 year old girl on our team, and it's a pretty big team. The fastest girls are around 5' or 5'1" with one or two who are much shorter.

And very few 13 year olds who are about 5 feet tall are going to grow so much taller that they can catch up with the taller girls on the team.

We had a 5'5" 10 year girl on our team. She is now a 6'1" 14 year old. She has mostly switched to other sports but still does school swim.

I also have a 13 year old with slow puberty. She's almost 5'0 but is still in the part of puberty prior to the big growth spurt.

I know a 14 year old who is around 5'4" with AAAA times. As an 11 year old in her best event she had A times. I know several swimmers shorter than her with AAA times. One of them had A times in the best events as a 10 year old. I didn't check the other girls.

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Anonymous wrote:There are also some really big 10y/olds who swim at a snails pace. Chalking early success up to size is really oversimplifying things. Some kids are just better at swimming than others. If your kid is good now, they’ll likely want to continue swimming. Every swim kid has to deal with a slump at some point.

There are 10 yo girls who are well into puberty and 5'6" and 115 lbs. My 10 yo is 50" and 53 lbs. Based on a conversation with her pediatrician she's likely going to hit puberty at 13 yo--well on the late side. It does matter. It's not everything, but it absolutely matters.

Some 10 yo girls are built like teens and others are still built like little kids. (The same split happens for boys, but a bit later.)

I have a 13 year old swimmer whose doctor told me I have another 2 years before puberty. She has just started growing and at 5 feet and some change is well below the height of all of her friends who have had their periods and have stopped growing. Her dad if 6’5” and I am 5’8” so she has a chance at some height but probably won’t hit it until 15-16. Three years is a long time to be fighting to keep up with the 5’5” and 5’6” girls. So she has to keep loving it.

Both of these cases are very rare.

There isn't a single 5'4" 10 year old girl on our team, and it's a pretty big team. The fastest girls are around 5' or 5'1" with one or two who are much shorter.

And very few 13 year olds who are about 5 feet tall are going to grow so much taller that they can catch up with the taller girls on the team.

It's really not rare. You can look at any group of 10-13 yo girls and see the divide between those who are looking like teens and those who still look like kids. One group is noticably bigger and stronger than the other.

Yeah, the 13 year olds are noticeably bigger and stronger than the 10 year olds...

Not always. I have seen 10 year olds at meets that look 22. Huge.

+1, my DD is in this age range and has several teammates who appear much older than they are because they are tall and physically mature. She has also competed against girls on other clubs who are similarly tall and mature looking.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many times the kids who are big (not just tall) and powerful at the younger ages end up being too big/heavy for swimming long term. Swimming is a sport that favors the naturally long and lean body type.

Yep, football player build is not a good swimmer’s build (plus many of these kids end up overweight).

Actually, a lot of that is controllable. A football player works out differently to a swimmer and their body looks different. A lot of kids, if they stuck to swimming would look different.

Yeah, no. You can't engineer your body type. Just ask a whole generation of women who dreamed of being ballerinas as young girls.

+1 I was an amazing 10 and under with the medals to prove it, then I got boobs and never got taller than 5’3”.