Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:the politics on this thread belongs in the politics forum.

meanwhile, the collapse of SVB and silvergate is happening right now, and the risk of contagion seems real.

Anything is possible, but it seems unlikely. As someone who was intimately involved in the stuff at the heart of the financial crisis, at least so far I don’t see the kinds of unrecognized systemic interconnections that were at play there. Banking is much more highly regulated now than it was then. Guess we’ll see.

Anonymous wrote:the politics on this thread belongs in the politics forum.

meanwhile, the collapse of SVB and silvergate is happening right now, and the risk of contagion seems real.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

Well it’s a west coast startup focused thing, so it’s crisis seems contained. But the root problem with the mark to market drop of long date treasuries is a wider potential problem.

It’s not just some small west coast startup bank. It’s like the 14th biggest bank in the US. FDIC got involved with it this morning and shut them down.

This is a huge deal.

+1
I don't know what all the implications are, but it's definitely a big deal.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

Well it’s a west coast startup focused thing, so it’s crisis seems contained. But the root problem with the mark to market drop of long date treasuries is a wider potential problem.

It’s not just some small west coast startup bank. It’s like the 14th biggest bank in the US. FDIC got involved with it this morning and shut them down.

This is a huge deal.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

Well it’s a west coast startup focused thing, so it’s crisis seems contained. But the root problem with the mark to market drop of long date treasuries is a wider potential problem.

It’s not just some small west coast startup bank. It’s like the 14th biggest bank in the US. FDIC got involved with it this morning and shut them down.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

Well it’s a west coast startup focused thing, so it’s crisis seems contained. But the root problem with the mark to market drop of long date treasuries is a wider potential problem.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

Well it’s a west coast startup focused thing, so it’s crisis seems contained. But the root problem with the mark to market drop of long date treasuries is a wider potential problem.

This looks like a total over reaction. SVB looks solid. This is a minor not major issue for other banks.

FDIC disagrees.

https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

DP. Same here. And I’m not even surprised, as someone who worked at SVB for a year. That place was ran so terribly bad, it’s no real surprise it’s falling apart.

Considering how inept so many VC firms can be (see Sequoia love letter to SBF https://web.archive.org/web/20221027180943/https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/sam-bankman-fried-spotlight/), and all the copycat startups funded by every VC firm, there is a certain amount of emperor has no clothes in tech….

Google and FB were legit money makers, basically inventing online advertising and draining from TV. Since them, what companies have managed to actually make money on that scale?

I've seen some arguments thrown out that SVB is so systemically necessary for the tech sector that there is going to be a "too big to fail" bailout. Guess the gov is going to need to prop up crypto in order to save the economy.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

DP. Same here. And I’m not even surprised, as someone who worked at SVB for a year. That place was ran so terribly bad, it’s no real surprise it’s falling apart.

Considering how inept so many VC firms can be (see Sequoia love letter to SBF https://web.archive.org/web/20221027180943/https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/sam-bankman-fried-spotlight/), and all the copycat startups funded by every VC firm, there is a certain amount of emperor has no clothes in tech….

Google and FB were legit money makers, basically inventing online advertising and draining from TV. Since them, what companies have managed to actually make money on that scale?

I've seen some arguments thrown out that SVB is so systemically necessary for the tech sector that there is going to be a "too big to fail" bailout. Guess the gov is going to need to prop up crypto in order to save the economy.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

Well it’s a west coast startup focused thing, so it’s crisis seems contained. But the root problem with the mark to market drop of long date treasuries is a wider potential problem.

This looks like a total over reaction. SVB looks solid. This is a minor not major issue for other banks.

FDIC disagrees.

https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

DP. Same here. And I’m not even surprised, as someone who worked at SVB for a year. That place was ran so terribly bad, it’s no real surprise it’s falling apart.

Considering how inept so many VC firms can be (see Sequoia love letter to SBF https://web.archive.org/web/20221027180943/https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/sam-bankman-fried-spotlight/), and all the copycat startups funded by every VC firm, there is a certain amount of emperor has no clothes in tech….

Google and FB were legit money makers, basically inventing online advertising and draining from TV. Since them, what companies have managed to actually make money on that scale?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

Well it’s a west coast startup focused thing, so it’s crisis seems contained. But the root problem with the mark to market drop of long date treasuries is a wider potential problem.

This looks like a total over reaction. SVB looks solid. This is a minor not major issue for other banks.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

DP. Same here. And I’m not even surprised, as someone who worked at SVB for a year. That place was ran so terribly bad, it’s no real surprise it’s falling apart.