Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Strangely I think it will not have as much effect as one would expect. Changes in the Russian military (which won’t affect the outcome too much) and further decrease in tourism (anyone with half a brain already knows not to go there).
But it won’t lead to using nukes or anything that drastic.
Also, doesn’t really matter who and how.

You're either cognitively challenged or a Russian propagandist who knows the impact of that single bridge to the Russian military (or both).

Russian troops stationed in Sevastopl and Simeropl will live or die (literally, not figuratively) based on whether that bridge is operational since it's one of the few rail transports available to Russian forces in Ukraine. Once that bridge is shut down for good, Russian military forces in Crimea will totally collapse, imho.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#/map/0

Russian troops near Kherson are having trouble keeping themselves supplied with ammunition, fuel, food as it is now. Most of it is being funneled through from Simeropl and Dzhankov, so there is zero chance of the Russian military logistics being able to reroute supplies through other locations. Sure, they could try using ships or planes, but we've seen how effective that's been in the past. They could also shift to trucks, but in general, a single train carries about 300 truckloads of cargo. The Russian military also lost too many supply trucks as it is, plus it burns up fuel to transport the extra distance, maintenance, etc.

"Russia's Energy Ministry said Crimea has enough fuel for 15 days."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/crimea-bridge-russia-war-in-ukraine-damaged-key-supply-route-putin-birthday/

"A Russian tourist association estimated that 50,000 tourists were in Crimea on vacation on Saturday."
"On Saturday, a Kremlin-backed official in Ukraine's Kherson region announced a partial evacuation of civilians from the southern province, one of four illegally annexed by Moscow last week. Kirill Stremousov told Russia's state-run RIA Novosti agency that young children and the elderly could be relocated because Kherson was getting "ready for a difficult period.""

Any panicked Russian civilian minority in Sevastopl or Kherson can still retreat back to Russia, just via road instead of the bridge - which will make it even more difficult to Russia to supply their troops in Ukraine.

My guess is that the Russian Army is frantically and actively suppressing any information about the bridge damage. Any Russian military forces not panicked by this new development, should be when they eventually get wind of this - especially with winter coming up.

Before you get even more excited at discovering how smart you are - you do realize it wasn’t huge damage and it was already apparent at the time of my post?
I was wrong though.
There are explosions damaging critical infrastructure right now all over Ukraine
I just didn’t want to face the fact that there will be escalation
I am now thinking that maybe the bridge affair was an FSB false flag thing? A pretext to bomb all the cities that weren’t bombed before?
I don’t know

DP, and mechanical engineer

No, we certainly DON’T know there wasn’t “huge damage”. In fact I’d say just the opposite. Two entire sections of roadbed were knocked off the bridge piles. That’s pretty darn huge in my book. Plus the degradation of concrete and rebar from the heat of the fire from the burning tanker cars on the railroad span. And that’s only what’s discernible in low-rez photos. I’d definitely suspect there’s shock-damage to other structure in the bridge as well.

To suggest this wasn’t anything BUT major damage is lunacy.

Thank you! It actually makes me feel better - at least Ukraine wasn’t bombed for nothing today, they managed to do damage as well, good for them
I wonder what the next steps will be

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Strangely I think it will not have as much effect as one would expect. Changes in the Russian military (which won’t affect the outcome too much) and further decrease in tourism (anyone with half a brain already knows not to go there).
But it won’t lead to using nukes or anything that drastic.
Also, doesn’t really matter who and how.

You're either cognitively challenged or a Russian propagandist who knows the impact of that single bridge to the Russian military (or both).

Russian troops stationed in Sevastopl and Simeropl will live or die (literally, not figuratively) based on whether that bridge is operational since it's one of the few rail transports available to Russian forces in Ukraine. Once that bridge is shut down for good, Russian military forces in Crimea will totally collapse, imho.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#/map/0

Russian troops near Kherson are having trouble keeping themselves supplied with ammunition, fuel, food as it is now. Most of it is being funneled through from Simeropl and Dzhankov, so there is zero chance of the Russian military logistics being able to reroute supplies through other locations. Sure, they could try using ships or planes, but we've seen how effective that's been in the past. They could also shift to trucks, but in general, a single train carries about 300 truckloads of cargo. The Russian military also lost too many supply trucks as it is, plus it burns up fuel to transport the extra distance, maintenance, etc.

"Russia's Energy Ministry said Crimea has enough fuel for 15 days."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/crimea-bridge-russia-war-in-ukraine-damaged-key-supply-route-putin-birthday/

"A Russian tourist association estimated that 50,000 tourists were in Crimea on vacation on Saturday."
"On Saturday, a Kremlin-backed official in Ukraine's Kherson region announced a partial evacuation of civilians from the southern province, one of four illegally annexed by Moscow last week. Kirill Stremousov told Russia's state-run RIA Novosti agency that young children and the elderly could be relocated because Kherson was getting "ready for a difficult period.""

Any panicked Russian civilian minority in Sevastopl or Kherson can still retreat back to Russia, just via road instead of the bridge - which will make it even more difficult to Russia to supply their troops in Ukraine.

My guess is that the Russian Army is frantically and actively suppressing any information about the bridge damage. Any Russian military forces not panicked by this new development, should be when they eventually get wind of this - especially with winter coming up.

Before you get even more excited at discovering how smart you are - you do realize it wasn’t huge damage and it was already apparent at the time of my post?
I was wrong though.
There are explosions damaging critical infrastructure right now all over Ukraine
I just didn’t want to face the fact that there will be escalation
I am now thinking that maybe the bridge affair was an FSB false flag thing? A pretext to bomb all the cities that weren’t bombed before?
I don’t know

Utter nonsense.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Strangely I think it will not have as much effect as one would expect. Changes in the Russian military (which won’t affect the outcome too much) and further decrease in tourism (anyone with half a brain already knows not to go there).
But it won’t lead to using nukes or anything that drastic.
Also, doesn’t really matter who and how.

You're either cognitively challenged or a Russian propagandist who knows the impact of that single bridge to the Russian military (or both).

Russian troops stationed in Sevastopl and Simeropl will live or die (literally, not figuratively) based on whether that bridge is operational since it's one of the few rail transports available to Russian forces in Ukraine. Once that bridge is shut down for good, Russian military forces in Crimea will totally collapse, imho.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#/map/0

Russian troops near Kherson are having trouble keeping themselves supplied with ammunition, fuel, food as it is now. Most of it is being funneled through from Simeropl and Dzhankov, so there is zero chance of the Russian military logistics being able to reroute supplies through other locations. Sure, they could try using ships or planes, but we've seen how effective that's been in the past. They could also shift to trucks, but in general, a single train carries about 300 truckloads of cargo. The Russian military also lost too many supply trucks as it is, plus it burns up fuel to transport the extra distance, maintenance, etc.

"Russia's Energy Ministry said Crimea has enough fuel for 15 days."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/crimea-bridge-russia-war-in-ukraine-damaged-key-supply-route-putin-birthday/

"A Russian tourist association estimated that 50,000 tourists were in Crimea on vacation on Saturday."
"On Saturday, a Kremlin-backed official in Ukraine's Kherson region announced a partial evacuation of civilians from the southern province, one of four illegally annexed by Moscow last week. Kirill Stremousov told Russia's state-run RIA Novosti agency that young children and the elderly could be relocated because Kherson was getting "ready for a difficult period.""

Any panicked Russian civilian minority in Sevastopl or Kherson can still retreat back to Russia, just via road instead of the bridge - which will make it even more difficult to Russia to supply their troops in Ukraine.

My guess is that the Russian Army is frantically and actively suppressing any information about the bridge damage. Any Russian military forces not panicked by this new development, should be when they eventually get wind of this - especially with winter coming up.

Before you get even more excited at discovering how smart you are - you do realize it wasn’t huge damage and it was already apparent at the time of my post?
I was wrong though.
There are explosions damaging critical infrastructure right now all over Ukraine
I just didn’t want to face the fact that there will be escalation
I am now thinking that maybe the bridge affair was an FSB false flag thing? A pretext to bomb all the cities that weren’t bombed before?
I don’t know

DP, and mechanical engineer

No, we certainly DON’T know there wasn’t “huge damage”. In fact I’d say just the opposite. Two entire sections of roadbed were knocked off the bridge piles. That’s pretty darn huge in my book. Plus the degradation of concrete and rebar from the heat of the fire from the burning tanker cars on the railroad span. And that’s only what’s discernible in low-rez photos. I’d definitely suspect there’s shock-damage to other structure in the bridge as well.

To suggest this wasn’t anything BUT major damage is lunacy.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Strangely I think it will not have as much effect as one would expect. Changes in the Russian military (which won’t affect the outcome too much) and further decrease in tourism (anyone with half a brain already knows not to go there).
But it won’t lead to using nukes or anything that drastic.
Also, doesn’t really matter who and how.

You're either cognitively challenged or a Russian propagandist who knows the impact of that single bridge to the Russian military (or both).

Russian troops stationed in Sevastopl and Simeropl will live or die (literally, not figuratively) based on whether that bridge is operational since it's one of the few rail transports available to Russian forces in Ukraine. Once that bridge is shut down for good, Russian military forces in Crimea will totally collapse, imho.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#/map/0

Russian troops near Kherson are having trouble keeping themselves supplied with ammunition, fuel, food as it is now. Most of it is being funneled through from Simeropl and Dzhankov, so there is zero chance of the Russian military logistics being able to reroute supplies through other locations. Sure, they could try using ships or planes, but we've seen how effective that's been in the past. They could also shift to trucks, but in general, a single train carries about 300 truckloads of cargo. The Russian military also lost too many supply trucks as it is, plus it burns up fuel to transport the extra distance, maintenance, etc.

"Russia's Energy Ministry said Crimea has enough fuel for 15 days."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/crimea-bridge-russia-war-in-ukraine-damaged-key-supply-route-putin-birthday/

"A Russian tourist association estimated that 50,000 tourists were in Crimea on vacation on Saturday."
"On Saturday, a Kremlin-backed official in Ukraine's Kherson region announced a partial evacuation of civilians from the southern province, one of four illegally annexed by Moscow last week. Kirill Stremousov told Russia's state-run RIA Novosti agency that young children and the elderly could be relocated because Kherson was getting "ready for a difficult period.""

Any panicked Russian civilian minority in Sevastopl or Kherson can still retreat back to Russia, just via road instead of the bridge - which will make it even more difficult to Russia to supply their troops in Ukraine.

My guess is that the Russian Army is frantically and actively suppressing any information about the bridge damage. Any Russian military forces not panicked by this new development, should be when they eventually get wind of this - especially with winter coming up.

Before you get even more excited at discovering how smart you are - you do realize it wasn’t huge damage and it was already apparent at the time of my post?
I was wrong though.
There are explosions damaging critical infrastructure right now all over Ukraine
I just didn’t want to face the fact that there will be escalation
I am now thinking that maybe the bridge affair was an FSB false flag thing? A pretext to bomb all the cities that weren’t bombed before?
I don’t know

It also could be a Lone Wolf from one of the many many prior Russian wars. We tend to forget that there are a lot of families who will never forgive Russia.

If you look at this video, it appears that the explosion could have occurred from under the bridge. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PNTifo2SJ8

For all we know, it was a Russian submarine or maybe Belarusian's that blew it up, since it looks like this single incident will also help destabilize Belarus?

The Belarusian leader said: "It will be more than one thousand people." He added that he instructed the KGB to carry out "anti-terrorist measures".
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1680585/putin-lukashenko-joint-troops-ukraine-war

On the surface, Moscow would like the world to believe that Belarus is supporting Ukraine, but listen to the video where Lukashenko is talking about pulling out Middle Schoolers from classes to harvest apples and potatoes to prevent prices from rising. That means that they don't have the manual labor to do this. That could also mean that these 1,000 troops are more symbolic (to help get rid of troublemakers) than an actual fighting force, if 12-year-olds need to be "mobilized" into the fields so that the people in Belarus don't starve this winter.

https://en.unesco.org/courier/october-2000/belarus-facing-disaster-alone
"The soil of Belarus alone absorbed two-thirds of the fall-out and some of the nuclides, such as caesium-137, stay radioactive for more than 30 years. Food accounts for 80 per cent of the long-term contamination of the population. Since the disaster, my institute has been systematically monitoring children with special spectrometers."

"After doing thousands of autopsies, Bandazhevsky and his team showed that caesium-137 had accumulated in muscle tissue, beginning with the heart. Two-thirds of the 2,000 children monitored in the highly-contaminated area of Gomel have heart problems. The concentration of caesium inthe kidneys has also caused serious mal-functions from an early age. Caesium in the eye muscles leads to cataracts. For example, a 1997 study in Svetlovisy, near Gomel, found that a quarter of children between 13 and 15 had cataracts."

"During pregnancy, the placenta in mothers-to-be stores caesium which irra-diates the foetus and after the birth, the mother breastfeeds the baby with conta-minated milk. This leads to several diseases, such as “Chernobyl AIDS,” which is an immunity disorder. The radio-active particles also combine with lead (which was used in 1986 to put out the fire and was then absorbed into the ground) to cause mental retardation and stomach ailments. We are heading towards a national disaster."

"They’ve lied to tens of thousands of Russians who have come from “hot spots” or crisis areas in the former Soviet Union to live in the contaminated region.¹"

"¹After the collapse of the Soviet Union, 25 million Russians found themselves living outside the new borders of Russia, mainly in Central Asia and the Caucasus where there was and still is war. The Belarusian government encouraged them to settle in the contaminated areas by giving them housing, jobs and resident status."

Anonymous wrote:Completely untethered from reality. You’ve been watching too many Jason Bourne movies. Photographic evidence doesn’t lie. And nobody constructed and dispatched a “semi-submersible” full of several tons of explosives from Odessa.

If narcos can build semisubmersibles in a jungle in Panama, I’m fairly certain the Ukrainians can build them too

Do you even realize how stupid you sound to the rest of us here who actually understand this stuff?


But please, keep going! It’s awesome.

Completely untethered from reality. You’ve been watching too many Jason Bourne movies. Photographic evidence doesn’t lie. And nobody constructed and dispatched a “semi-submersible” full of several tons of explosives from Odessa.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I seriously doubt it was a truck bomb. Explosion on the surface don’t do that.

So what was it?

boat underneath

This. Unmanned seacraft underneath, timed to coincide with the rail tanker cars crossing the same spot on the rail bridge right next to it. So the original detonation took down two spans of one of the road crossings and cause the tanker cars on the train above to explode, damaging the rail crossing as well. Nice work, Ukraine!

Your elaborate theory hasn’t accounted for the grassy knoll or magic bullet.

Your attempt at snark just highlights your complete ignorance about explosives. Water is incompressible. It makes a perfect medium for a explosive tamper (look it up).


A truck bomb exploding on the bridge deck would direct most of the explosive force upwards into the air, imparting very little force into the deck. An explosive going off on the surface of the water would direct most of the energy upwards, since water cannot be compressed. The entire shock front of the blast would hit the span of the bridge from below, heaving it off the piers holding the spans in place. The spans would then fall down exactly as we see in the pics. The train on fire was just a convenient added bonus, and the burning fuel from the train tanker cars likely severely compromised the concrete and steel in the railway spans as well.

A drone semisubmersible is probably what was used. The same type craft that is used to smuggle drugs in the Caribbean and coastal pacific. Very hard to detect with surface radar, very hard to see, and no IR signature to give away it’s presence.

So a semisubmersible with several tons of explosive is likely what was used.


Take your childish snark someplace else. Adults are talking here.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Strangely I think it will not have as much effect as one would expect. Changes in the Russian military (which won’t affect the outcome too much) and further decrease in tourism (anyone with half a brain already knows not to go there).
But it won’t lead to using nukes or anything that drastic.
Also, doesn’t really matter who and how.

You're either cognitively challenged or a Russian propagandist who knows the impact of that single bridge to the Russian military (or both).

Russian troops stationed in Sevastopl and Simeropl will live or die (literally, not figuratively) based on whether that bridge is operational since it's one of the few rail transports available to Russian forces in Ukraine. Once that bridge is shut down for good, Russian military forces in Crimea will totally collapse, imho.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#/map/0

Russian troops near Kherson are having trouble keeping themselves supplied with ammunition, fuel, food as it is now. Most of it is being funneled through from Simeropl and Dzhankov, so there is zero chance of the Russian military logistics being able to reroute supplies through other locations. Sure, they could try using ships or planes, but we've seen how effective that's been in the past. They could also shift to trucks, but in general, a single train carries about 300 truckloads of cargo. The Russian military also lost too many supply trucks as it is, plus it burns up fuel to transport the extra distance, maintenance, etc.

"Russia's Energy Ministry said Crimea has enough fuel for 15 days."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/crimea-bridge-russia-war-in-ukraine-damaged-key-supply-route-putin-birthday/

"A Russian tourist association estimated that 50,000 tourists were in Crimea on vacation on Saturday."
"On Saturday, a Kremlin-backed official in Ukraine's Kherson region announced a partial evacuation of civilians from the southern province, one of four illegally annexed by Moscow last week. Kirill Stremousov told Russia's state-run RIA Novosti agency that young children and the elderly could be relocated because Kherson was getting "ready for a difficult period.""

Any panicked Russian civilian minority in Sevastopl or Kherson can still retreat back to Russia, just via road instead of the bridge - which will make it even more difficult to Russia to supply their troops in Ukraine.

My guess is that the Russian Army is frantically and actively suppressing any information about the bridge damage. Any Russian military forces not panicked by this new development, should be when they eventually get wind of this - especially with winter coming up.

Before you get even more excited at discovering how smart you are - you do realize it wasn’t huge damage and it was already apparent at the time of my post?
I was wrong though.
There are explosions damaging critical infrastructure right now all over Ukraine
I just didn’t want to face the fact that there will be escalation
I am now thinking that maybe the bridge affair was an FSB false flag thing? A pretext to bomb all the cities that weren’t bombed before?
I don’t know

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I seriously doubt it was a truck bomb. Explosion on the surface don’t do that.

So what was it?

boat underneath

There is video of something traveling under the bridge before the explosion.

Anonymous wrote:But the ramifications to the Russian Army in Ukraine of losing this one bridge is clear. And it's not just the Russian military freaking, if Putin is calling it a Terrorist Act. A bit of irony given what Russians have done in Syria and Africa lately.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-9f6099f7ab937d4e6563aa0aaa4a3184
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/09/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

in a sense it is an act of sheer "terror" - only to the Russian Army, though. Their offensive would collapse in the south, so I'm sure that Russian Generals and front line soldiers would be terrified if that bridge went completely down.

The emaining span was on fire from fuel and burned for a while. It could be structural compromised. Trains actually shake bridges as they pass over them. So it could fail.

Just a flesh wound.

But the ramifications to the Russian Army in Ukraine of losing this one bridge is clear. And it's not just the Russian military freaking, if Putin is calling it a Terrorist Act. A bit of irony given what Russians have done in Syria and Africa lately.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-9f6099f7ab937d4e6563aa0aaa4a3184
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/09/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

in a sense it is an act of sheer "terror" - only to the Russian Army, though. Their offensive would collapse in the south, so I'm sure that Russian Generals and front line soldiers would be terrified if that bridge went completely down.

Anonymous wrote:Yes, but is it true, or propaganda?

Ukraine has to hit the bridge again. And it will.

Yes, but is it true, or propaganda?

This part was disappointing.

Russia's Ministry of Transport said on Sunday that all freight and long-distance passenger trains were running according to schedule, and that ferries would help transport additional freight and passengers across the Kerch strait, the Wall Street Journal reported.
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/09/russia-crimea-kerch-bridge-supply-lines