i actually think there might be a split ga senate result.

i think warnock will win (the loeffler seat) but purdue will keep his seat (the one ossoff is going for).

I think it's gonna end up 51-50 dems

az is not a toss-up.

mark kelly is going to win

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Colorado - Dems should win
Maine - Collins is toast
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year?
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale
Texas - return of Beto?
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there?
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there?

Seems like a pretty solid map to me. Can’t imagine republicans feel safe in any of those states. [/quote]

Please, please, please tell me that Collins is toast. I’m SO sick of her hypocrisy and the dumb media coverage that we are supposed to give two shits about what she thinks. She is a hack. I can deal with hacks. I can’t stand her hypocrisy. She needs her old-ass booted out. [/quote]

yall really live in lala land

Colorado - Dems should win (Agree)
Maine - Collins is toast (Agree)
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater (Nope NYT has him up 6 over polls this year)
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs (Tossup)
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year? (Tossup slight lean D)
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale (Nope)
Texas - return of Beto? (nope)
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force (nope)
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there? (nope)
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell (nope)
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there? (nope)

you are forgetting Alabama

The only real change for me is Colllins

Yall will pick up CO, ME
we will pick up AL

Tossups AZ, NC
everything else is status quo

assuming tossups split
its still an R senate
and trump has a 50/50 chance of winning again[/quote]

Way to argue with a post that’s from November 2018. Try reading the whole thread. The facts on the ground have changed.[/quote]

um go to any politics site the consensus is D+1 with 2 tossups[/quote]
So surely you’ll have no trouble finding those links and adding them to the thread? Because reports from the nonpartisan election analysts at Inside Elections and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball confirmed that the Senate majority is increasingly in play.
http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/rating-changes-electoral-college-and-senate/
https://insideelections.com/ratings/senate
[/quote]

omg can you people read that's exactly what the posts say D+1 with 2 tossups. Really you guys are a bunch of morons

12:13. Oh, I forgot about Bullock in Montana. Yes, pretty good shot of that one flipping.

Anonymous wrote:I'm about to type something but I won't.

Like when a pitcher is throwing a no-hitter and you're not supposed to say anything.

agree. keep focus on election day, not the day after.

Anonymous wrote:My predictions—
Doug Jones loses regardless of who the GOP nominee is. With Trump (who is VERY popular in AL) at the top of the ballot, there is really no question.

McSally loses in AZ — Mark Kelly is a fantastic candidate and has a war chest.

Susan Collins loses in Maine. She’s unpopular, Gideon is good.

Both GA seats go Republican, although it will be close. I think GA is still just not ready to flip at this point — very possible in 2022 or 2024 if Dems keep investing there, though.

Cory Gardner loses in CO. CO has just gotten SO blue in the past 6 years I don’t see how he wins, especially considering he’s unpopular and Hickenlooper is well-liked.

Not sure about NC??? I think it depends who the Dem presidential is. If it’s Biden, Dems have a shot. Bernie? Forget about it.

Cornyn wins. The combination of him being much more liked than Ted Cruz and the Dems not having a superstar candidate like Beto like they did in ‘18 makes this one a pretty easy guess for me.

In KS, if Kobach gets the nom and Dems put someone good up I can *maybe* see it flipping, but otherwise no way.

McConnell- no way is he losing. I know people are excited about Amy McGrath but she’s just not a good candidate, especially up against the McConnell warchest.

Joni Ernst wins. Iowa has all but shifted completely red, IMO, and Ernst doesn’t really have any huge negatives that would cause people to mobilize against her.

The rest have no chance of flipping, IMO.

Thoughts?

I am the author of this post and I am now thinking that NC is ripe for a flip, and with all the BS going on in Georgia and Kelly Loeffler dumping her stocks that there is a higher chance that GA flips. Otherwise I maintain my other predictions.

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Colorado - Dems should win
Maine - Collins is toast
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year?
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale
Texas - return of Beto?
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there?
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there?

Seems like a pretty solid map to me. Can’t imagine republicans feel safe in any of those states. [/quote]

Please, please, please tell me that Collins is toast. I’m SO sick of her hypocrisy and the dumb media coverage that we are supposed to give two shits about what she thinks. She is a hack. I can deal with hacks. I can’t stand her hypocrisy. She needs her old-ass booted out. [/quote]

yall really live in lala land

Colorado - Dems should win (Agree)
Maine - Collins is toast (Agree)
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater (Nope NYT has him up 6 over polls this year)
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs (Tossup)
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year? (Tossup slight lean D)
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale (Nope)
Texas - return of Beto? (nope)
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force (nope)
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there? (nope)
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell (nope)
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there? (nope)

you are forgetting Alabama

The only real change for me is Colllins

Yall will pick up CO, ME
we will pick up AL

Tossups AZ, NC
everything else is status quo

assuming tossups split
its still an R senate
and trump has a 50/50 chance of winning again[/quote]

Way to argue with a post that’s from November 2018. Try reading the whole thread. The facts on the ground have changed.[/quote]

um go to any politics site the consensus is D+1 with 2 tossups[/quote]
So surely you’ll have no trouble finding those links and adding them to the thread? Because reports from the nonpartisan election analysts at Inside Elections and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball confirmed that the Senate majority is increasingly in play.
http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/rating-changes-electoral-college-and-senate/
https://insideelections.com/ratings/senate

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Colorado - Dems should win
Maine - Collins is toast
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year?
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale
Texas - return of Beto?
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there?
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there?

Seems like a pretty solid map to me. Can’t imagine republicans feel safe in any of those states.

Please, please, please tell me that Collins is toast. I’m SO sick of her hypocrisy and the dumb media coverage that we are supposed to give two shits about what she thinks. She is a hack. I can deal with hacks. I can’t stand her hypocrisy. She needs her old-ass booted out.

yall really live in lala land

Colorado - Dems should win (Agree)
Maine - Collins is toast (Agree)
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater (Nope NYT has him up 6 over polls this year)
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs (Tossup)
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year? (Tossup slight lean D)
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale (Nope)
Texas - return of Beto? (nope)
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force (nope)
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there? (nope)
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell (nope)
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there? (nope)

you are forgetting Alabama

The only real change for me is Colllins

Yall will pick up CO, ME
we will pick up AL

Tossups AZ, NC
everything else is status quo

assuming tossups split
its still an R senate
and trump has a 50/50 chance of winning again

Way to argue with a post that’s from November 2018. Try reading the whole thread. The facts on the ground have changed.

um go to any politics site the consensus is D+1 with 2 tossups

Let’s not get complacent. Republicans have the cash advantage. And $50 mn in super pac ads have been booked in North Carolina to defend Thom Tillis’s seat.


https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/13/senate-republicans-campaign-majority-184136

Anonymous wrote:Thought that arizona would pick Mark Kelly... the astronaut over the other idiot.

He is polling way ahead. I don't know why the prognosticator above didn't value that.

Thought that arizona would pick Mark Kelly... the astronaut over the other idiot.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Colorado - Dems should win
Maine - Collins is toast
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year?
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale
Texas - return of Beto?
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there?
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there?

Seems like a pretty solid map to me. Can’t imagine republicans feel safe in any of those states.

Please, please, please tell me that Collins is toast. I’m SO sick of her hypocrisy and the dumb media coverage that we are supposed to give two shits about what she thinks. She is a hack. I can deal with hacks. I can’t stand her hypocrisy. She needs her old-ass booted out.

yall really live in lala land

Colorado - Dems should win (Agree)
Maine - Collins is toast (Agree)
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater (Nope NYT has him up 6 over polls this year)
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs (Tossup)
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year? (Tossup slight lean D)
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale (Nope)
Texas - return of Beto? (nope)
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force (nope)
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there? (nope)
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell (nope)
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there? (nope)

you are forgetting Alabama

The only real change for me is Colllins

Yall will pick up CO, ME
we will pick up AL

Tossups AZ, NC
everything else is status quo

assuming tossups split
its still an R senate
and trump has a 50/50 chance of winning again

Way to argue with a post that’s from November 2018. Try reading the whole thread. The facts on the ground have changed.

Bolluck is likely to win Montana.

Kelly will win AZ.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Colorado - Dems should win
Maine - Collins is toast
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year?
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale
Texas - return of Beto?
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there?
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there?

Seems like a pretty solid map to me. Can’t imagine republicans feel safe in any of those states.

Please, please, please tell me that Collins is toast. I’m SO sick of her hypocrisy and the dumb media coverage that we are supposed to give two shits about what she thinks. She is a hack. I can deal with hacks. I can’t stand her hypocrisy. She needs her old-ass booted out.

yall really live in lala land

Colorado - Dems should win (Agree)
Maine - Collins is toast (Agree)
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater (Nope NYT has him up 6 over polls this year)
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs (Tossup)
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year? (Tossup slight lean D)
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale (Nope)
Texas - return of Beto? (nope)
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force (nope)
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there? (nope)
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell (nope)
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there? (nope)

you are forgetting Alabama

The only real change for me is Colllins

Yall will pick up CO, ME
we will pick up AL

Tossups AZ, NC
everything else is status quo

assuming tossups split
its still an R senate
and trump has a 50/50 chance of winning again

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dr. Barbara Bollier (D) has a real chance of winning KS, especially if Krazy Kris Kobach is the GOP candidate. Bollier is a highly-respected state senator and was a Republican until last year. Donating to her campaign would help keep Kobach out of the US Senate, which everybody who’s paying attention will tell you is important.

You post this a lot.

It’s all true every time, though.
- DP

Go North Carolina!

Recent polls show a very close race between Tillis and Cunningham. An East Carolina University survey conducted in February showed Tillis with a 2-point lead over Cunningham. An NBC News/Marist poll had Cunningham ahead by 5 percentage points. The Cook Political Report recently deemed the race a "toss-up" after it had been "leaning Republican