Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.

Yeah, but your kid is only in sixth grade for one year. If you know every single classmate of their's going elsewhere you don't get excited knowing that it is 10 percent fewer than five years ago.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

What is really concerning are some of the racial undertones in some of the other PPs. There is no way of knowing the SES or educational achievement of any of the new kids in 5th grade unless you're just making assumptions...

Sure there is. It’s well discussed in our school that the upper grade lottery admits have “higher needs.” Lotterying into (or boundary frauding into) an elementary school with a bad MS doesn’t result suggest a family with ample means. I’m happy to have them in our school; I just feel bad that Ward 7 and 8 are so terrible that our MS is an improvement to them.

Being Pollyanish about this stuff helps nobody.

I find it funny that families who live IB for Brent talk about people that don't have "ample means" as if they are paying 60k/yr for private school. If it makes you feel better to pretend like by living IB for Brent you are rich then go on with your bad self. Also, love the assumption that someone who doesn't look like you or belong to your book club surely must be committing boundary fraud to be attending school with Molly and Dylan.

You must be one of those Tucker viewers who thinks that racism isn't racism if you claim you are just being real.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.

Sure there’s some increase, but every 4th grade family tries the lottery. Even the most self-righteous moms end up trying it.

One, not "every 4th grade family" does. You simply don't know that to be true. You know that you and your friends do and that's great for you. But when you say things like that you prove my point for me. Not everyone is like you - you present a pretty self centered world view to assume everyone is. Two, whether people try the lottery and whether they return are two totally different things. You have introduced a completely separate concept of "desire" versus "outcome". The issue is which kids ultimately return, not which ones would go to GDS or Latin if they had the means or lottery luck. Whatever the reason kids return for 5th or SH for 6th the result is an increase in white, UMC IB kids. We know from experience that more people will consider sticking around if more people who look like them and are academically similarly situated are in the school.

mmm pretty sure it’s just about every 4th grade family - or if not they will be lotterying and exploring moving after 5th. some will stay, and there do seem to be an increasing # trying EH and SH because they have no other options. And obviously nobody stays for HS.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.

Sure there’s some increase, but every 4th grade family tries the lottery. Even the most self-righteous moms end up trying it.

+1, and I'd also argue that it's actually hard to assess trends either way at the moment because of Covid. It's thrown things up the air. People who were never really considering private wound up discovering during Covid that they can scrounge the money up for it (and saw that privates in DC actually opened in the 2020-21 school year). People considering MS at their DCPS IB but figured they'd move or go private for HS moved up their timelines in some cases. I think Covid made some people more apt to stay put (less change during a tumultuous time for a kid at a critical juncture in school) and made others more likely to lottery into a charter if they could, because of frustration with how their school handled Covid.

MS is a tough time for behavior and social issues, even at the best possible school. Covid has exacerbated that. I don't think you can assume that trends will continue to move in the same direction because so many parents shifted focus and priorities during Covid.

And while prior trends moved in favor of more families staying at Hill elementaries for 5th, and more trying their IB MS, it's not like these trends were overwhelming. We're talking about a very small trickle in that direction. Compare that to the shift we saw at L-T towards more IB families overall. Now THAT was a trend, that pushed L-T out of Title 1 status really fast.

I am skeptical of anyone who thinks they know with any certainty how this is all going to shake out in a few years. I know people who told me with absolutely certaining 5 years ago that SH would be over 50% IB kids by now. Well, it's not. And Eastern is still considered a non-option for most Hill families. So when you talk trends, you need to talk all of them, not just the ones that support your hypothesis.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.

Sure there’s some increase, but every 4th grade family tries the lottery. Even the most self-righteous moms end up trying it.

One, not "every 4th grade family" does. You simply don't know that to be true. You know that you and your friends do and that's great for you. But when you say things like that you prove my point for me. Not everyone is like you - you present a pretty self centered world view to assume everyone is. Two, whether people try the lottery and whether they return are two totally different things. You have introduced a completely separate concept of "desire" versus "outcome". The issue is which kids ultimately return, not which ones would go to GDS or Latin if they had the means or lottery luck. Whatever the reason kids return for 5th or SH for 6th the result is an increase in white, UMC IB kids. We know from experience that more people will consider sticking around if more people who look like them and are academically similarly situated are in the school.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.

Sure there’s some increase, but every 4th grade family tries the lottery. Even the most self-righteous moms end up trying it.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

What is really concerning are some of the racial undertones in some of the other PPs. There is no way of knowing the SES or educational achievement of any of the new kids in 5th grade unless you're just making assumptions...

Sure there is. It’s well discussed in our school that the upper grade lottery admits have “higher needs.” Lotterying into (or boundary frauding into) an elementary school with a bad MS doesn’t result suggest a family with ample means. I’m happy to have them in our school; I just feel bad that Ward 7 and 8 are so terrible that our MS is an improvement to them.

Being Pollyanish about this stuff helps nobody.

Anonymous wrote:For the uneducated in other parts of the city, some elementary schools on the Hill have 40-60 4th graders and they have been in class together since k or before. You have seen the same families over and over for years. And if they have older siblings that got into charters, you know they have sibling preference and will apply to that same charter. And if they have an older sibling and went private for MS, it is very likely they will do the same for the younger child at whatever entry year that private has, expenses be damned.

All you have to do is count - many many 4th graders in Ward 6 leave at 5th grade. This is not confirmations bias. It is reality and has been the reality since 2013 or so.

There are more IB kids in SH than there were 9 years ago (your random date choice) - this is a fact. There are more IB 4th and 5th graders in CH ES than there were 9 years ago - this is a fact. You seem to want a dramatic change overnight. That's not how these things work.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

What is really concerning are some of the racial undertones in some of the other PPs. There is no way of knowing the SES or educational achievement of any of the new kids in 5th grade unless you're just making assumptions...

Those aren't undertones. More like tsunamis.

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

What is really concerning are some of the racial undertones in some of the other PPs. There is no way of knowing the SES or educational achievement of any of the new kids in 5th grade unless you're just making assumptions...

What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

For the uneducated in other parts of the city, some elementary schools on the Hill have 40-60 4th graders and they have been in class together since k or before. You have seen the same families over and over for years. And if they have older siblings that got into charters, you know they have sibling preference and will apply to that same charter. And if they have an older sibling and went private for MS, it is very likely they will do the same for the younger child at whatever entry year that private has, expenses be damned.

All you have to do is count - many many 4th graders in Ward 6 leave at 5th grade. This is not confirmations bias. It is reality and has been the reality since 2013 or so.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:dude, you can disagree, but if you don't have the patience to read that's on you. I'm not PP, but the pointless insults are a drag.

The insults aren't necessary (NP here). It is silly to argue that people who have kids in these elementary schools have "confirmation bias" about kids leaving the schools at 5th for charter middle schools. This might be true for people observing the 5th grade class from a distance (say PK parents trying to figure out what is happening, or a neighborhood family trying to eyeball what they think are 5th graders outside the school) and drawing conclusions from what they think they see. In that case, sure, I think you could argue that an observer might expect to see fewer white families or fewer high SES families because they expect them to leave for charters, and then simply see what they expect to see regardless of what is actually happening.

But you can't tell a family who has a 4th or 5th grader at these schools that they have "confirmation bias" on this issue when 7 of their kid's 10 closest friends at school are now at BASIS, Latin or CMI. At that close up, it's really not a question of seeing what you expect to see, because honestly, parents who stick around these schools for 5th are actively hoping for the opposite. If you are sending your kid to Ludlow or Brent for 5th grade, you dream ideal is that most of the class comes back for 5th with your kid, keeping the cohort together. There's no confirmation bias -- it is what it is, and both you and your kid can see what is happening.

I do not agree with you that confirmation bias isn't possible if you are actually in 5th grade but I respect that you have a different opinion and took the time to express it.

It’s now abundantly clear that you don’t understand confirmation bias.

Anonymous wrote:dude, you can disagree, but if you don't have the patience to read that's on you. I'm not PP, but the pointless insults are a drag.

He does that not infrequently around these parts. He falls back on "word salad" when anyone disagrees with him.