Anonymous
03/15/2020 12:40
Subject: Re:VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:This is what exponential growth means.
One week ago there were 0 cases.
3 then 5 then 9 then 17 then 30 now 41.
And this is with the bare minimum of testing. Please explain this to all the people who you know that refuse to stay home and flatten the curve.
Math is not your strong suit.
+1
200 cases today (safe to eat out)
6 days - 400 cases (safe to eat out)
12 days - 800 cases (safe to eat out$
18 days - 1600 cases (safe to eat out)
24 days - 3200 cases (safe to eat out)
30 days - 6400 cases (safe to eat out)
36 days - 12800 cases (safe to eat out)
42 days - 25600 cases (safe to eat out but not go to Costco)
48 days - 51200 cases (safe for carry out only go to stores for necessities)
54 days - 102400 cases (safe to get food delivered and left on porch)
60 days - 204800 cases (make all food at home)
We are good to get food out for at least two more months. Even if you want to be conservative and stop early, we have at least six weeks before there is much chance of running into sick individuals. I’m not worried at all right now.
I’d agree with you more if we had more testing.
We can probably assume 5x to 10x as many infected as we have tested. So 40 confirmed would be 200-400 total infected. We are at the early stages. By May we will be in trouble. I think mid April people need to start being careful but right now most people should be fine. That doesn’t mean we should all go to giant conventions but going about your daily life normally for a few more weeks seems fine.
Anonymous
03/15/2020 12:35
Subject: Re:VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:This is what exponential growth means.
One week ago there were 0 cases.
3 then 5 then 9 then 17 then 30 now 41.
And this is with the bare minimum of testing. Please explain this to all the people who you know that refuse to stay home and flatten the curve.
Math is not your strong suit.
+1
200 cases today (safe to eat out)
6 days - 400 cases (safe to eat out)
12 days - 800 cases (safe to eat out$
18 days - 1600 cases (safe to eat out)
24 days - 3200 cases (safe to eat out)
30 days - 6400 cases (safe to eat out)
36 days - 12800 cases (safe to eat out)
42 days - 25600 cases (safe to eat out but not go to Costco)
48 days - 51200 cases (safe for carry out only go to stores for necessities)
54 days - 102400 cases (safe to get food delivered and left on porch)
60 days - 204800 cases (make all food at home)
We are good to get food out for at least two more months. Even if you want to be conservative and stop early, we have at least six weeks before there is much chance of running into sick individuals. I’m not worried at all right now.
I’d agree with you more if we had more testing.
Anonymous
03/15/2020 12:09
Subject: VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:New Virginia case in Alexandria. Sounds like from the description the person was overseas when he became sick and still flew home anyway. WTF!!!!
https://www.alexandriava.gov/news_display.aspx?id=114177
I've lost track of dates. Was this the CPAC conference?
Could be, but not sure. Article says the conference attended by the person was on 2/25. CPAC was 2/26-2/29.
Anonymous
03/15/2020 11:58
Subject: VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed
# of cases reported by VDH, Fairfax, even the entire country is meaningless because people aren’t getting tested. I know of people who are very sick in the hospital and not tested. I assume we have 5,000+ cases in Fairfax county which will increase exponentially by next weekend
Anonymous
03/15/2020 11:52
Subject: Re:VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:This is what exponential growth means.
One week ago there were 0 cases.
3 then 5 then 9 then 17 then 30 now 41.
And this is with the bare minimum of testing. Please explain this to all the people who you know that refuse to stay home and flatten the curve.
Math is not your strong suit.
+1
200 cases today (safe to eat out)
6 days - 400 cases (safe to eat out)
12 days - 800 cases (safe to eat out$
18 days - 1600 cases (safe to eat out)
24 days - 3200 cases (safe to eat out)
30 days - 6400 cases (safe to eat out)
36 days - 12800 cases (safe to eat out)
42 days - 25600 cases (safe to eat out but not go to Costco)
48 days - 51200 cases (safe for carry out only go to stores for necessities)
54 days - 102400 cases (safe to get food delivered and left on porch)
60 days - 204800 cases (make all food at home)
We are good to get food out for at least two more months. Even if you want to be conservative and stop early, we have at least six weeks before there is much chance of running into sick individuals. I’m not worried at all right now.
Anonymous
03/15/2020 11:47
Subject: VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed
Anonymous wrote:New Virginia case in Alexandria. Sounds like from the description the person was overseas when he became sick and still flew home anyway. WTF!!!!
https://www.alexandriava.gov/news_display.aspx?id=114177
I've lost track of dates. Was this the CPAC conference?
Anonymous
03/15/2020 11:45
Subject: VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed
New Virginia case in Alexandria. Sounds like from the description the person was overseas when he became sick and still flew home anyway. WTF!!!!
https://www.alexandriava.gov/news_display.aspx?id=114177
https://www.alexandriava.gov/news_display.aspx?id=114177
Anonymous
03/15/2020 08:45
Subject: VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed
They are not testing people in the hospital. People are wandering around thinking only 10 people in Fairfax have it. When it’s probably more like 10k
Anonymous
03/15/2020 00:13
Subject: Re:VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:This is what exponential growth means.
One week ago there were 0 cases.
3 then 5 then 9 then 17 then 30 now 41.
And this is with the bare minimum of testing. Please explain this to all the people who you know that refuse to stay home and flatten the curve.
Math is not your strong suit.
And empathy isn’t yours. So now what?
Anonymous
03/14/2020 20:23
Subject: Re:VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed
First death reported in James City County on Saturday.
Anonymous
03/14/2020 17:54
Subject: Re:VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed
Anonymous wrote:This is what exponential growth means.
One week ago there were 0 cases.
3 then 5 then 9 then 17 then 30 now 41.
And this is with the bare minimum of testing. Please explain this to all the people who you know that refuse to stay home and flatten the curve.
Math is not your strong suit.
Anonymous
03/14/2020 17:50
Subject: VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed
Anonymous
03/14/2020 17:50
Subject: VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed
Someone has died. From Piedmont area so must be James City County.
Anonymous
03/14/2020 17:41
Subject: Re:VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:This is what exponential growth means.
One week ago there were 0 cases.
3 then 5 then 9 then 17 then 30 now 41.
And this is with the bare minimum of testing. Please explain this to all the people who you know that refuse to stay home and flatten the curve.
I thought we were at 31. I guess they are no longer reporting where the cases are from.
I feel like we will be at 50 by Monday and in the hundreds by the end of next week. Scary.
They tell where the cases are from but not other details.
http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/surveillance-and-investigation/novel-coronavirus/
I wish they would contact trace where they had gone while infected. Everyone has their phone so this is easy info to find
They say that they have been. They say that they are not publishing where the people were because they've already contacted/are contacting everyone the infected person came in contact with.
Anonymous
03/14/2020 17:39
Subject: Re:VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:This is what exponential growth means.
One week ago there were 0 cases.
3 then 5 then 9 then 17 then 30 now 41.
And this is with the bare minimum of testing. Please explain this to all the people who you know that refuse to stay home and flatten the curve.
I thought we were at 31. I guess they are no longer reporting where the cases are from.
I feel like we will be at 50 by Monday and in the hundreds by the end of next week. Scary.
They tell where the cases are from but not other details.
http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/surveillance-and-investigation/novel-coronavirus/
I wish they would contact trace where they had gone while infected. Everyone has their phone so this is easy info to find