Anonymous
03/10/2022 09:46
Subject: Military observations on Ukraine invasion
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is such a $hit show that so can’t help but wonder if it is all some kind of elaborate trap to make the West think they are incompetent and do the most horrible things to draw us into it thinking we could easily wipe it up and then bring out the big guns. Then they could claim that WE attacked them. However I have no experience in military things at all.
We might not need to invade. We could just sit back and watch Russia implode. I heard that Putin fired 8 of his generals because of the disaster in Ukraine. Major flagship Russian brands like Lada cars are crashing badly. Many Russians are panicking and trying to leave the country because they fear it's heading for economic doom. All this as Russia sees hundreds of millions of dollars of military hardware getting destroyed every day, hundreds and hundreds of its troops getting killed every day...
Low number of casualties by Russian standards.
This. Keep in mind they are known for sending troops in battle without a gun. Literally told their soldiers to pick one up during their assault from someone injured or already dead.
Russians value life about as much as we value our house plants.
Anonymous
03/10/2022 09:39
Subject: Military observations on Ukraine invasion
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is such a $hit show that so can’t help but wonder if it is all some kind of elaborate trap to make the West think they are incompetent and do the most horrible things to draw us into it thinking we could easily wipe it up and then bring out the big guns. Then they could claim that WE attacked them. However I have no experience in military things at all.
We might not need to invade. We could just sit back and watch Russia implode. I heard that Putin fired 8 of his generals because of the disaster in Ukraine. Major flagship Russian brands like Lada cars are crashing badly. Many Russians are panicking and trying to leave the country because they fear it's heading for economic doom. All this as Russia sees hundreds of millions of dollars of military hardware getting destroyed every day, hundreds and hundreds of its troops getting killed every day...
Low number of casualties by Russian standards.
Anonymous
03/10/2022 09:34
Subject: Military observations on Ukraine invasion
Anonymous wrote:
The Russian military can be as incompetent as described by PPs. Yet it can still inflict MAJOR casualties on civilians in Ukraine, as seen in recent days. To witness the deaths of pregnant mothers and infants in a maternity hospital is horrific.
So while we can all agree that Putin signed his own political (if not physical) demise by engaging in this conflict, ultimately the victims are still the Ukrainians, and they need our help NOW.
Amid all these public denials of fighter jet transfer, I really hope fighter jets are going to magically appear in the very near future in Ukraine skies. Provenance unknown.
+1. I think Poland wanted to look good and got out ahead of itself. Much better to park some fully stocked planes on the border for “defense” and then claim the Ukrainian fighter pilots came and stole them. Plausible deniability.
Anonymous
03/09/2022 23:46
Subject: Military observations on Ukraine invasion
The Russian military can be as incompetent as described by PPs. Yet it can still inflict MAJOR casualties on civilians in Ukraine, as seen in recent days. To witness the deaths of pregnant mothers and infants in a maternity hospital is horrific.
So while we can all agree that Putin signed his own political (if not physical) demise by engaging in this conflict, ultimately the victims are still the Ukrainians, and they need our help NOW.
Amid all these public denials of fighter jet transfer, I really hope fighter jets are going to magically appear in the very near future in Ukraine skies. Provenance unknown.
Anonymous
03/09/2022 23:20
Subject: Military observations on Ukraine invasion
Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is such a $hit show that so can’t help but wonder if it is all some kind of elaborate trap to make the West think they are incompetent and do the most horrible things to draw us into it thinking we could easily wipe it up and then bring out the big guns. Then they could claim that WE attacked them. However I have no experience in military things at all.
What the f are you smoking? You think this is a tv show? You think they are just playing games? They are dying. If nato gets involved the Russians are done. These long columns of vehicles, Russian ships in the Black Sea, etc are all gone. Russians would not be able to move or resupply. Google The Highway of Death and that was 30 years ago.
Anonymous
03/09/2022 23:16
Subject: Military observations on Ukraine invasion
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is such a $hit show that so can’t help but wonder if it is all some kind of elaborate trap to make the West think they are incompetent and do the most horrible things to draw us into it thinking we could easily wipe it up and then bring out the big guns. Then they could claim that WE attacked them. However I have no experience in military things at all.
We might not need to invade. We could just sit back and watch Russia implode. I heard that Putin fired 8 of his generals because of the disaster in Ukraine. Major flagship Russian brands like Lada cars are crashing badly. Many Russians are panicking and trying to leave the country because they fear it's heading for economic doom. All this as Russia sees hundreds of millions of dollars of military hardware getting destroyed every day, hundreds and hundreds of its troops getting killed every day...
Anonymous
03/09/2022 23:16
Subject: Military observations on Ukraine invasion
I think the conscripts is what will bring Putin down.
There was a video posted on this site where they were talking about having to sign papers to be “professional” military converts.
By law, conscripts do not serve in combat in Russia.
Ukraine has been smart in letting the captured conscripts call home and tell their families where they are and that they are ok.
I do not see any master plan here of sucking anyone in…I think Putin really thinks he has a military on par with the US and is learning he is more like #20 on military power. Maybe 10% of his nukes actually work.
There was a video posted on this site where they were talking about having to sign papers to be “professional” military converts.
By law, conscripts do not serve in combat in Russia.
Ukraine has been smart in letting the captured conscripts call home and tell their families where they are and that they are ok.
I do not see any master plan here of sucking anyone in…I think Putin really thinks he has a military on par with the US and is learning he is more like #20 on military power. Maybe 10% of his nukes actually work.
Anonymous
03/09/2022 23:04
Subject: Military observations on Ukraine invasion
Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is such a $hit show that so can’t help but wonder if it is all some kind of elaborate trap to make the West think they are incompetent and do the most horrible things to draw us into it thinking we could easily wipe it up and then bring out the big guns. Then they could claim that WE attacked them. However I have no experience in military things at all.
We might not need to invade. We could just sit back and watch Russia implode. I heard that Putin fired 8 of his generals because of the disaster in Ukraine. Major flagship Russian brands like Lada cars are crashing badly. Many Russians are panicking and trying to leave the country because they fear it's heading for economic doom. All this as Russia sees hundreds of millions of dollars of military hardware getting destroyed every day, hundreds and hundreds of its troops getting killed every day...
Anonymous
03/09/2022 22:32
Subject: Military observations on Ukraine invasion
This whole thing is such a $hit show that so can’t help but wonder if it is all some kind of elaborate trap to make the West think they are incompetent and do the most horrible things to draw us into it thinking we could easily wipe it up and then bring out the big guns. Then they could claim that WE attacked them. However I have no experience in military things at all.
Anonymous
03/09/2022 21:36
Subject: Military observations on Ukraine invasion
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I think Ukraine has about 45, so 98 is a huge addition.
Wow, that's a huge infusion at the same time Russia is transporting in plumbing repair vans for reinforcement.
It’s about two squadrons worth of MiGs (9.12 and a couple of UBs) that were due to be replaced anyway with F-16V. It’s a great gesture for sure and I love how the Poles are leading NATOs response but let’s keep things in perspective.
Poland put Biden in a tough spot. Poland basically is saying step up America and do the deal out of Germany so we are all in this together.
OK. So conduct the transfer in Moldova.
But get this done extremely quickly. The Migs are desperately needed today!
No way Moldova would agree. Moldova is, constitutionally a neutral country, although they are a member of the North Atlantice Coordinating Council but not NATO. They have a breakaway zone on the border with Ukraine that has Russian troops. In Putin’s speeches it is clear that he would like to take all of southern Ukraine until the Moldovan border and if he chose not to stop, there is no way the Moldovans could protect themselves. Plus the Russian troops already in Transnistria could cause even bigger problems within Moldova even if Putin chose not to invade.
Anonymous
03/09/2022 16:59
Subject: Military observations on Ukraine invasion
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I think Ukraine has about 45, so 98 is a huge addition.
Wow, that's a huge infusion at the same time Russia is transporting in plumbing repair vans for reinforcement.
It’s about two squadrons worth of MiGs (9.12 and a couple of UBs) that were due to be replaced anyway with F-16V. It’s a great gesture for sure and I love how the Poles are leading NATOs response but let’s keep things in perspective.
Poland put Biden in a tough spot. Poland basically is saying step up America and do the deal out of Germany so we are all in this together.
OK. So conduct the transfer in Moldova.
But get this done extremely quickly. The Migs are desperately needed today!
The Poles are scared to do this and they have NATO backing. Moldova would be nuts to agree to this.
I really don't understand the reluctance for NATO countries though. They are opening providing billions in weapons to Ukraine. I don't see how fighter jets crosses some line that they haven't already crossed. I suspect the issue is more about whether the US can really replace the Polish MiGs in any timely fashion. I doubt the US has a couple dozen F-16s just sitting around ready to send to Poland.
I left Lockheed Martin a few years ago but f16s would roll off multiple daily from the line. They are easy planes to build after 30 years of doing it.
The JSF was nearing one a day when I left so I am sure there are plenty of f16s.
It is more a matter of the customization of block Poland wants.
Is that something they could work on themselves, post delivery?
Sometimes - really depends on what is going into the airplane. The UAE version of the f16 is one of the coolest ones (it has spine on it for all the stuff they wanted) and some was done in US and some there by Lockheed Martin in country employees.
Typically when the US sells planes abroad Lockheed Martin gets paid for the aircraft, spare parts and some level of in country maintenance support.
The training of the pilots starts here in the US years before delivery is done by the US military.
I have no idea if polands planes are done and they are training on them yet (here) or on US training aircraft still.
Thanks. I love how informed some DC-area posters are. It makes DCUM really special
Anonymous
03/09/2022 16:23
Subject: Military observations on Ukraine invasion
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I think Ukraine has about 45, so 98 is a huge addition.
Wow, that's a huge infusion at the same time Russia is transporting in plumbing repair vans for reinforcement.
It’s about two squadrons worth of MiGs (9.12 and a couple of UBs) that were due to be replaced anyway with F-16V. It’s a great gesture for sure and I love how the Poles are leading NATOs response but let’s keep things in perspective.
Poland put Biden in a tough spot. Poland basically is saying step up America and do the deal out of Germany so we are all in this together.
OK. So conduct the transfer in Moldova.
But get this done extremely quickly. The Migs are desperately needed today!
The Poles are scared to do this and they have NATO backing. Moldova would be nuts to agree to this.
I really don't understand the reluctance for NATO countries though. They are opening providing billions in weapons to Ukraine. I don't see how fighter jets crosses some line that they haven't already crossed. I suspect the issue is more about whether the US can really replace the Polish MiGs in any timely fashion. I doubt the US has a couple dozen F-16s just sitting around ready to send to Poland.
I left Lockheed Martin a few years ago but f16s would roll off multiple daily from the line. They are easy planes to build after 30 years of doing it.
The JSF was nearing one a day when I left so I am sure there are plenty of f16s.
It is more a matter of the customization of block Poland wants.
Is that something they could work on themselves, post delivery?
Sometimes - really depends on what is going into the airplane. The UAE version of the f16 is one of the coolest ones (it has spine on it for all the stuff they wanted) and some was done in US and some there by Lockheed Martin in country employees.
Typically when the US sells planes abroad Lockheed Martin gets paid for the aircraft, spare parts and some level of in country maintenance support.
The training of the pilots starts here in the US years before delivery is done by the US military.
I have no idea if polands planes are done and they are training on them yet (here) or on US training aircraft still.
Anonymous
03/09/2022 15:42
Subject: Military observations on Ukraine invasion
Anonymous wrote:I hope that tank column will freeze now that the temperatures will drop to -10C.
And then I hope it melts and they get stuck in mud.
Something I read described the convoy as a 40-mile long POW camp that the Ukrainians don’t have to feed. 😬
Anonymous
03/09/2022 15:42
Subject: Military observations on Ukraine invasion
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:At what point does China look at the mess Russia is mired in, with fully half their army ground forces committed and suffering 8-10% casualties, and decide that right NOW is the best time to take Siberia?
They’ve had plans of doing this for decades. They even call Siberia the “northern resource area” in internal discussions.
If I were Xi Jinping, I’d go for it right now. Start with a decapitating nuclear strike, accept some losses to a Russian retaliatory strike, and send my entire army into Siberia.
Seems unlikely. I think it's more likely they leverage Russia's economic mess to get lots of favorable terms on buying oil, gas and other commodities from Russia. Russia has little choice. China is the only major buyer left for them. Unfortunately, I think that's the weak part of the western strategy. We're likely to drive Russia into China's arms and make them a vassal state of China.
If this were to keep up, we would sanction anyone dealing in Russian oil which would mean China would have to give up its international trade with the US. If forced to choose they would choose the US.
We are not going to sanction China. It would be way too disruptive. The sanctions against Russia are going to be massively disruptive. Adding China to that mix would multiply that times 100.
We would not sanction China directly but we would put sanctions on anyone buying Russian oil. This will come after Russia destroyes the capital city.
I would assume the next step is to move from their central bank's reserves moving from frozen to being used to rebuild Ukraine