We are definitely not seeing a red curve here.. we are pumping up but at the speed of a blue line
and it is not as steep as the red. Yes, it is going up and we are FAR from the top but flattening
the curve does not mean fast and flat as you wished.

Anonymous wrote:It’s not working.

All the “social distancing”.

All the restaurants and businesses closed.

All the sporting events canceled.

All the schools closed.

All of the upheaval.

And it’s still getting worse.

There is no light at the end of the tunnel.

And it sucks.

Dude do you have a concept of a curve? Many of the people who got infected closed themselves up with the bug, another bunch still shopping and jogging and ordering, they are getting it anyway they can.
So it is still going up because it is going up but eventually the joggers and walkers and shoppers will finally settle and once they all get sick, the healthy ones who stay put will no longer will be getting sick
so we will flatten and go down. So there is nothing to get excited yet, we are still on the way up dude.

What kind of wishful thinking you present that for the whole metro area we will end up with what.. 3000 cases? Who are you kidding... we are peddling towards maybe 50 or 100K here so once we hit that
we will start going down... We are not quite New York but we are pretty well packed up here.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:June 10 for VA? Is this F#{%~^cking serious. I will not make it two more months. I live alone!

Thank you for keeping perfect on social distancing

Lolz

Anonymous wrote:So I’m reading that the task force is predicting 100-240k deaths as a best case scenario even with the measures in place. Per capita that is WAY worse than anywhere else. And it sounds like April could be the worst month- so will we literally start seeing thousands die per day? I’m just trying to figure out how we get to that number. And presumably other places besides NYC and New Orleans?

I’ve been trying to figure that out what the assumptions are for that data, as well. So the task force is looking at different models, and I’m not sure we have access to all of them. Birx did cite the University if Washington IHME report, which estimates 82,000.
* But if you look on the ranges in this IHME study, they are really ranges of the best-case scenarios.
* The assumption is the all states have strict social-distancing actions akin to a China and that they work. And we know not all states have adopted strong measures.
* it assumed the measures are in place through May.
* the 82,000 is by early August, so there is a cutoff there.

Another study by the Imperial College estimated 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. but with no controls.

Note that May will also be a bad month for many states, as peaks in hospital demand will vary for several reasons. Also, a later peak is not a bad thing, in my mind, if the curve is flatter.

Anonymous wrote:I guess DC is locked down now.

The Mayor’s Order specifies that residents may only leave their residences to:
engage in essential activities, including obtaining medical care that cannot be provided through telehealth and obtaining food and essential household goods;
perform or access essential governmental functions;
work at essential businesses;
engage in essential travel; or
engage in allowable recreational activities, as defined by the Mayor’ s Order.
Any individual who willfully violates the stay-at-home order may be guilty of a misdemeanor and, upon conviction, subject to a fine not exceeding $5,000, imprisonment for not more than 90 days, or both.

Going out for food whenever you feel like it, is NOT "lockdown". Don't be silly, PP.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So I’m reading that the task force is predicting 100-240k deaths as a best case scenario even with the measures in place. Per capita that is WAY worse than anywhere else. And it sounds like April could be the worst month- so will we literally start seeing thousands die per day? I’m just trying to figure out how we get to that number. And presumably other places besides NYC and New Orleans?

The infection rate is doubling every 4 days (800K today... 1.6M, 4.2M, 8.8M, 17.6M, 35.2M, 70.4M, 140.8M in the next weeks), so w/ the mortality rate around 1.8%, those numbers add up pretty quick. Again, hoping social distancing flattens the curve.

Sorry, those numbers figures were worldwide, US will be 200K by tmro (give it 8 more days..)

Anonymous wrote:So I’m reading that the task force is predicting 100-240k deaths as a best case scenario even with the measures in place. Per capita that is WAY worse than anywhere else. And it sounds like April could be the worst month- so will we literally start seeing thousands die per day? I’m just trying to figure out how we get to that number. And presumably other places besides NYC and New Orleans?

The infection rate is doubling every 4 days (800K today... 1.6M, 4.2M, 8.8M, 17.6M, 35.2M, 70.4M, 140.8M in the next weeks), so w/ the mortality rate around 1.8%, those numbers add up pretty quick. Again, hoping social distancing flattens the curve.

So I’m reading that the task force is predicting 100-240k deaths as a best case scenario even with the measures in place. Per capita that is WAY worse than anywhere else. And it sounds like April could be the worst month- so will we literally start seeing thousands die per day? I’m just trying to figure out how we get to that number. And presumably other places besides NYC and New Orleans?

Anonymous wrote:June 10 for VA? Is this F#{%~^cking serious. I will not make it two more months. I live alone!

Thank you for keeping perfect on social distancing

Anonymous wrote: Apturing bats for any reason is dangerous. The Chinese have had SARS and COVID-19 both from bats. The Egyptians had MERS from bats. The “way of life” where you capture and interact with bats is highly dangerous. THREE very dangerous Coronavirus - ALL from bats - in the last 18 years. That’s a dangerous and fatal zoological Coronavirus from bats every six years. That’s horrible no matter if it’s China, Egypt, or another country. We need to stay away from bats.

Why did the Chinese Communists now REOPEN their "WET MARKETS"....

selling live bats, dogs, cats to eat??

They're called WET because the places are swimming in a bloody mess, as the animals get freshly slaughtered before your eyes.

Anonymous wrote:While possible, it is more likely those allegedly self-quarantining at home really went to a grocery store near others, touched something, or even got it from their mail carrier than to have had it incubate 28 days. Or possibly from a spouse who was still working. IMO.

Possibly. I don’t know what standards others hold for self quarantine. I do feel relieved that transmission is more likely to be droplet infection rather than merely breathing air where infected asymptomatic people were a couple hours ago (see link several posts back in answer to my q).

I appreciate the thoughtful replies. Stay safe everyone!!

Anonymous wrote:I guess DC is locked down now.

The Mayor’s Order specifies that residents may only leave their residences to:
engage in essential activities, including obtaining medical care that cannot be provided through telehealth and obtaining food and essential household goods;
perform or access essential governmental functions;
work at essential businesses;
engage in essential travel; or
engage in allowable recreational activities, as defined by the Mayor’ s Order.
Any individual who willfully violates the stay-at-home order may be guilty of a misdemeanor and, upon conviction, subject to a fine not exceeding $5,000, imprisonment for not more than 90 days, or both.

Ok now a trifecta for DMVA!

And DC version allows for grocery shopping or buying medicine right?

I guess DC is locked down now.

The Mayor’s Order specifies that residents may only leave their residences to:
engage in essential activities, including obtaining medical care that cannot be provided through telehealth and obtaining food and essential household goods;
perform or access essential governmental functions;
work at essential businesses;
engage in essential travel; or
engage in allowable recreational activities, as defined by the Mayor’ s Order.
Any individual who willfully violates the stay-at-home order may be guilty of a misdemeanor and, upon conviction, subject to a fine not exceeding $5,000, imprisonment for not more than 90 days, or both.

While possible, it is more likely those allegedly self-quarantining at home really went to a grocery store near others, touched something, or even got it from their mail carrier than to have had it incubate 28 days. Or possibly from a spouse who was still working. IMO.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Does anyone know of research showing how long virus survives in air without a host after infected person coughs or sneezes? At least one local person who has been home quarantining for more than two weeks except for walks outside has been confirmed as having corona virus.

This is a good summary: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesnt-mean-doomed/

The bottom line is, if you are maintaining appropriate social distancing, it is unlikely to would catch covid from simply walking into the space where someone sick had preciously sneezed or coughed. It’s not impossible, of course, but for many reasons this just doesn’t seem to be a common scenario.

I would guess it’s more likely the individual you’re referring to had some sort of contact s/he is misremembering, or perhaps there was a longer than average incubation period.

Thanks!