Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler when everybody thought that they were finished and retreating. Never underestimate Russia.
The country on-track towards anarchy is Ukraine. Have you been there? I have. The level of destruction is unimaginable. It will take 50 years to rebuild that country once the war is over.
Ukraine's counteroffensive is failing badly. Zelensky would be wise to negotiate a settlement to end the war and preserve the territories they currently have under control, but more importantly to preserve the life of ten of thousands of Ukrainian people.

Napoleon, WTF are you talking about? How is that relevant at all? If anything, Russia and its crappy supply lines are playing the role of Napoleon in this war. Ukraine's counteroffensive is already far more successful than Russia's winter offensive. How many bodies did they throw away to level a town they've already lost?

It is relevant because Russia has now moved into a defensive position. Ukraine took the bait and started a counteroffensive that will prove to be a fatal mistake. Russia is stronger when they play defense. That's why Napoleon's war is relevant, so is Hitler's. Russia can't lose in defensive positions. It never has. Napoleon and Hitler know it too well. Zelensky will regret starting this counteroffensive. They will be crushed like many other that have tried.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler when everybody thought that they were finished and retreating. Never underestimate Russia.
The country on-track towards anarchy is Ukraine. Have you been there? I have. The level of destruction is unimaginable. It will take 50 years to rebuild that country once the war is over.
Ukraine's counteroffensive is failing badly. Zelensky would be wise to negotiate a settlement to end the war and preserve the territories they currently have under control, but more importantly to preserve the life of ten of thousands of Ukrainian people.

Napoleon, WTF are you talking about? How is that relevant at all? If anything, Russia and its crappy supply lines are playing the role of Napoleon in this war. Ukraine's counteroffensive is already far more successful than Russia's winter offensive. How many bodies did they throw away to level a town they've already lost?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What about a "post Stalin map?"

Here's one pre-Stalin, 1914-1919.



Do you have some point to make?

Mmm. Besides the fact you're posting Russian-version-of-history maps claiming to be from 1914, and not post October 24–25, 1917, Bolshevik Revolution and WWI which didn't end until November 11, 1918? Sure.

This is much closer to what people at the time saw as a map of the Austro-Hungarian empire:



You can read about it here (helps fill in the gaps of communist education..).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austria-Hungary

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

You don't? Then you must have been deaf and blind. I don't have time to look up the links but practically every single member of the commentariat was beside themselves churning out stories that made it sound like Russia is tottering on the brink of collapse and Putin must be shivering the corner in a bunker somewhere.

I called my sister in Moscow on that day. I wasn't even mildly worried but I wanted to get a real scoop. She said - "dunno what the deal is and don't care. My husband is at the country house tending the veg and I stayed behind to get a manicure. " That was pretty typical of the level of excitement these news caused locally.

This doesn't surprise me. The coverage of Russia and Russian affairs here is so incredibly incompetent, I read in place of funny pages.

Well, since 70 year olds are eligible for conscription now, maybe the veg will need a new caretaker? Maybe plant a few sunflowers? But probably she wouldn't tell you if she did have an opinion anyway - with the lines tapped and all.

Solovyev talking to Igor Markov [0:48 / 3:43] "I understand how hard this is for you. You're from Odesa. You love Odesa. It's your hometown. Right now, you're being hounded. A clip was cut from this program where you argued with me and were against striking Odesa."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mv-zSUBP6zA
NOTE: Solovyev's whistle at the mention of Wagnerites cutting off Poland.

"Video shows a fireball erupting next to Moscow's glitzy skyscrapers as the capital's finance district is struck by drone attacks"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/video-shows-fireball-erupting-next-070222300.html

"During the first stage, the Russian National Guard simulated “countering mass civil disobedience among mobilized individuals and their families during the implementation of full-scale population mobilization measures in Russia.” In the second stage, Rosgvardiya was tasked with conducting an “operation on Belarusian territory to restore ‘order’ after the ‘military forces of Ukraine and Poland launched missile strikes on Russian Wagner mercenary company camps.’”"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-national-guard-trains-suppress-014300428.html

"United Russia party sources in the Urals region told Verstka website they had shredded pro-war campaign leaflets."
“There is not a single person here who supports the war. There are no Z-machines here,” the source in Putin’s party said. “If you support the war, you will not be elected.”
"overworked doctors in regional hospitals were resigning because of the stress of having to treat so many mentally and physically broken soldiers."
“There are almost no doctors left, and now the last ones are leaving because of unrealistic requirements on them,”
"warning of inflation linked to a sharp drop in Russia’s labour force. Ozon, a Russian online retailer, has said it will follow car manufacturer AvtoVAZ and hire convicts to plug shortages. The 500 convicts will pack boxes in its warehouses but, Ozon insisted, will not courier products to customers."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-election-candidates-avoid-mentioning-171513736.html

Dmitry Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation and former President of Russia: "we would have to resort to the use of nuclear weapons in accordance with the rules of the decree of the President of Russia, dated 2 June 2020. There is simply no other way out. Therefore, our enemies should pray for our warriors. They prevent a global nuclear conflagration."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/medvedev-threatens-nuclear-weapons-case-151905156.html

Anonymous wrote:How inconvenient that there were maps of a "country that didn't exist until it was created by Stalin" all the way back in 1660.



When the propaganda is so easily destroyed, it's time to stop using it.

Anonymous wrote:The funniest part is that Russia didn't exist, but Ukraine did! lol

Anonymous wrote:What about a "post Stalin map?"

Here's one pre-Stalin, 1914-1919.



Do you have some point to make?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

You don't? Then you must have been deaf and blind. I don't have time to look up the links but practically every single member of the commentariat was beside themselves churning out stories that made it sound like Russia is tottering on the brink of collapse and Putin must be shivering the corner in a bunker somewhere.

I called my sister in Moscow on that day. I wasn't even mildly worried but I wanted to get a real scoop. She said - "dunno what the deal is and don't care. My husband is at the country house tending the veg and I stayed behind to get a manicure. " That was pretty typical of the level of excitement these news caused locally.

This doesn't surprise me. The coverage of Russia and Russian affairs here is so incredibly incompetent, I read in place of funny pages.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

At the Minsk Agreements Putin once said: “Нравится, не нравится — терпи, моя красавица.” Надо исполнять. По-другому не получится (“Like it or not — put up with it, my beauty.” You have to follow the terms. There’s no other way”).
The Moscow Times

Tactically, this is what Putin seems to believe and what most Russians see on a day-to-day basis. Putin's thinking is that if he loses militarily in Ukraine, that he's finished politically. He believes that once he "wins" in Ukraine, that all will be forgiven and Russia will be all better. He also believes that if those loyal to him are gathered around his island, they will be his buffer to keep everyone else at bay. His chips seem to be all-in on this theory.

On one hand, Russia has switched mostly to bitcoin which helps to stabilize their economic system and offset disruptions, but the question is still where income will come from or is the Russian Government just printing as many Rubles as it needs on any given day (leading to hyperinflation-based collapse of the Ruble and Russian economy). Generally there are two primary methods to maintain the Russian Rouble; by maintaining mostly internal circulation (ex. the Stalinist State system) or externally (via imports / exports) or some combination of the two. As an exporter, Russian economic expenditures are offset selling oil to obtain income from other countries. As an importer, Russian imports are still heavily dependent upon (Black Sea) shipping and rail. If Ukraine can conduct military action against these two transportation methods (quite possible), Russia's already rising inflation could go much further.

But how will the Russian rouble fare internally? Can Russia produce most of the goods it needs to sustain the civilian economy and the war?

"The age for men with the highest ranks in the reserves can be called up "remains" at 70. For other senior ranks it has risen to up to 65, while for junior officers, it is now up until the age of 60. Meanwhile, general reservists can be brought back into service until the age of 55, 10 years older than previously."
"At the other end of the scale, head of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, said that the lower limit of the military age of 18 for Russian men will remain the same, reversing a proposal by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to increase it to 21."
"Legislation amendments due to come into force by October 2023 will increase the fines for those who do not heed a call up without a valid reason to up to 50,000 rubles (about $550) more than 16 times the current fine of 3,000 rubles ($33"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-raises-elderly-army-serviceman-70-deemed-eligible-russia-ukraine-1814670

Within a year, the impact of this decision upon internal productivity should become apparent to outside observers. If you look at Russian population demographics, the able-bodied 30 to 50-somethings are the most economically productive workforce group. They are the ones with the most current education and experience driving the Russian economy. Russia already has consumed much of its labor pipeline in the 18 to 30 range through either military service or maintaining the security apparatus. By now tapping the age group currently running the economy, this should create a cascading domino effect on maintaining current productivity. Fewer hands means fewer products.

Militarily, although there may be 30 or 40-somethings that have military skills, I would expect the Russian military to have difficulty re-integrating older soldiers. Although they may be individually trained, their readiness and motivation will require months of adjustment. An army runs on it's stomach and pay, so will become a massive economic drain, which is fine if you have sufficient productivity; but this will become a shortening cycle of need vs strained production.

External Russian initiatives are TBD, but early indications seem the global enthusiasm for involvement in Russia is tepid, at best.

"A video shared online shows Putin awkwardly standing around for over 20 seconds as he waits to meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi during the second annual Russia-Africa summit. In the clip, Putin strolls around the room in silence with his hands behind his back and idly straightens items on a table before continuing to pace."
https://www.newsweek.com/video-putin-waiting-awkwardly-egypt-president-video-1815838
7/27/23

"Putin has grabbed hold of his respected African partner and won't let him go. The Ethiopian prime minister felt a little embarrassed,"
"the most awkward handshake ever"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-awkward-handshake-mocked-abiy-ahmed-russia-africa-summit-1815578

But I didn't address why Prigozhin's mutiny is not a 'nothingburger' from a strategic sense. The main sign that Russia has approaching a Prigozhin-inspired inflection point is this:

"Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country. The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html

Prior to Prigozhin's mutiny, this was not on the radar, so why would Putin form new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country when conscription is so difficult Russia has to draft 70-year-olds? I believe the answer is it's the proxy for Full-Mobilization as well as keeping potential troublemakers within a Russian chain-of-command, but without calling it Full-Mobilization.

Do you think Russia currently has the supplies, currency reserves, training capacity to do this? My bet is no, and the country is still on-track towards anarchy within two years.

Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler when everybody thought that they were finished and retreating. Never underestimate Russia.
The country on-track towards anarchy is Ukraine. Have you been there? I have. The level of destruction is unimaginable. It will take 50 years to rebuild that country once the war is over.
Ukraine's counteroffensive is failing badly. Zelensky would be wise to negotiate a settlement to end the war and preserve the territories they currently have under control, but more importantly to preserve the life of ten of thousands of Ukrainian people.

Russia would have lost to Hitler if the west was not in the war. You would be speaking German now instead of your weekends in Ukraine of taking pictures of their air defenses or busy restaurants to target.

Your time will come when russia finally burns to ashes.

Let's not even talk about what would have happened to Ukraine if Hitler won. Actually we do know. Most of their young was sent to tend the pigs and work at factories in Germany. We all know what happened to the local Jewry, with able and enthusiastic assistance from the locals.

You are aware that at the ends of WW2 it was america that stopped the Allie’s from killing Stalin- they thought it would look “bad for our image” if we attacked an “ally”. Everyone in the world was all for it; including the Germans. Russia has been, and always will be hated that much.

Again with your "everyone in the world" nonsense, are you?

You must also be aware that at the end of WW2 most of Ukraine was Hungary, Romania or Poland, right?

I feel bad, though, even arguing with someone who thinks it was called "Allie". It's like...taking candy from a baby.

Ukraine, 1941



Post-Stalin map? Seriously? Talk about sad.

Pretty much 1991 borders, with exception of Crimea.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

You don't? Then you must have been deaf and blind. I don't have time to look up the links but practically every single member of the commentariat was beside themselves churning out stories that made it sound like Russia is tottering on the brink of collapse and Putin must be shivering the corner in a bunker somewhere.

I called my sister in Moscow on that day. I wasn't even mildly worried but I wanted to get a real scoop. She said - "dunno what the deal is and don't care. My husband is at the country house tending the veg and I stayed behind to get a manicure. " That was pretty typical of the level of excitement these news caused locally.

This doesn't surprise me. The coverage of Russia and Russian affairs here is so incredibly incompetent, I read in place of funny pages.

You're not surprised that local Russians don't get real news and/or assessments of the war? None of us are.

There are no real news here, only handwringing and wishful thinking. And her assessment turned out to be 100% spot on. Certainly more accurate than NYT that made it sound like world is about to burst into flames. Lol where’s Mark Ames when you need him.

Her assessment? Her blissful ignorance is not an assessment. As a direct result of Prigozhin's play, Wagner is in Belarus (to do what is unclear), Putin is reportedly building up private armies around Russia, and Prigozhin is somehow still sharing a stage with Putin. Just because your sister didn't get her manicure interrupted, doesn't mean nothing became of it. The furthest thing from that. You've reached a the point where you're obviously just pushing the Russian narrative here.

Her narrative "nothing important happened" is just as good as "something happened but I don't have the slightest idea what, so I'm going to just wring my hands and cry doomsday some more."

Nothing has burst into flames, Putin's power is unaffected, and the regime is not collapsing - despite multiple pronouncements to the contrary.

At least the nails are done.

It's really not. Your contrarian/devil's advocate shtick isn't really working any more (if it ever did). You seem happy with the current state of Russian affairs. So (as if we have any other choice), let's see how that works out for your country (Russia) and family.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

You don't? Then you must have been deaf and blind. I don't have time to look up the links but practically every single member of the commentariat was beside themselves churning out stories that made it sound like Russia is tottering on the brink of collapse and Putin must be shivering the corner in a bunker somewhere.

I called my sister in Moscow on that day. I wasn't even mildly worried but I wanted to get a real scoop. She said - "dunno what the deal is and don't care. My husband is at the country house tending the veg and I stayed behind to get a manicure. " That was pretty typical of the level of excitement these news caused locally.

This doesn't surprise me. The coverage of Russia and Russian affairs here is so incredibly incompetent, I read in place of funny pages.

You're not surprised that local Russians don't get real news and/or assessments of the war? None of us are.

There are no real news here, only handwringing and wishful thinking. And her assessment turned out to be 100% spot on. Certainly more accurate than NYT that made it sound like world is about to burst into flames. Lol where’s Mark Ames when you need him.

Her assessment? Her blissful ignorance is not an assessment. As a direct result of Prigozhin's play, Wagner is in Belarus (to do what is unclear), Putin is reportedly building up private armies around Russia, and Prigozhin is somehow still sharing a stage with Putin. Just because your sister didn't get her manicure interrupted, doesn't mean nothing became of it. The furthest thing from that. You've reached a the point where you're obviously just pushing the Russian narrative here.

Her narrative "nothing important happened" is just as good as "something happened but I don't have the slightest idea what, so I'm going to just wring my hands and cry doomsday some more."

Nothing has burst into flames, Putin's power is unaffected, and the regime is not collapsing - despite multiple pronouncements to the contrary.

At least the nails are done.