Anonymous
Post 07/15/2021 11:56     Subject: Re:I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:market may stabilize with some cooling off in overheated places, but we are looking at the impact of longer term housing shortage and increased wealth in many areas, meaning we are not in same place as 2008. inflation is rising, fed will not immediately raise rates (probably taper bond purchases) but that could eventually put some downward pressure on prices and demand. the spring 21 bubble may "pop" and people who bought in 21 may not profit by selling in 23 (unlike those who bought in 19 and sold in 21) but most economic indicators do not point to a massive crash.

I guess different people look at data differently.

EVERY single economic indicator is in bubble territory and ripe for a crash. It just needs a trigger.

Look at what's happening in South Africa right now. Food inflation is leading (almost) to a civil war and the society breaking down. And we here in the US are seeing massive food inflation as well. And we have guns in private hands. A lot of guns. If people are hungry and cannot "afford" food, guess what's gonna happen?


The macroeconomics are challenging, it’s true. But the microeconomics of inside-the-beltway SFHs are still very bullish.

I have serious doubts about that as well. WFH is here to stay. And the govt (believe it or not) is a LOT more supportive of remote work than even some private companies. I'm a Beltway bandit (own a company that leeches off govt contracting dollars), and since the pandemic came to be and CDC/Fed guidance, over 90% of my workforce that were local to the DC area have moved outwards, if not across state lines. The Fed govt used to have a clause in their contracts, that the work will be performed onsite ONLY, and it applied to defense as well as civilian agencies.

No more. All civilian agencies have amended their contracts and removed that language.

"Inside the beltway" will remain, but only for high profile positions, think lobbyists and politicians. The normal working people don't necessarily will have to be close proximity anymore.


You haven’t changed my mind. You might be able to move away, but the folks bidding on good neighborhoods close-in really can’t. The microeconomics still support prices. I’m pretty sure.
Anonymous
Post 07/15/2021 11:50     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:But will inside the beltway in MD be as valuable once 270 and 495 is expanded and traffic is way way up in 20 years.

I looked at a house just inside beltway by Bradley in Bethesda and felt you were trapped in rush hour

Beltway bandit here.

My (somewhat creaky) crystal ball says...we'll see LESS traffic in the next 20 years than we have seen in the past. WFH will be a major contributor to that, but so will new communication and transportation technologies.

I honestly believe we're seeing a seismic shift in the way our country operates, and the next 20 years will look orders of magnitude different from the last 20 years.

Me? I'm buying land. Lots of land. In lots of places. May turn out to be a bad decision, but we'll see.
Anonymous
Post 07/15/2021 11:46     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Put it this way. If we are worried about a pop on the scale people are taking about (e.g. South Africa), we have a lot more to worry about than your home value. Personal safety and starvation for starters.
Anonymous
Post 07/15/2021 11:44     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:But will inside the beltway in MD be as valuable once 270 and 495 is expanded and traffic is way way up in 20 years.

I looked at a house just inside beltway by Bradley in Bethesda and felt you were trapped in rush hour


Will traffic be up? That depends on continued population growth in this area, which is far from guaranteed.
Anonymous
Post 07/15/2021 11:39     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
But will inside the beltway in MD be as valuable once 270 and 495 is expanded and traffic is way way up in 20 years.

I looked at a house just inside beltway by Bradley in Bethesda and felt you were trapped in rush hour
Anonymous
Post 07/15/2021 11:38     Subject: Re:I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:market may stabilize with some cooling off in overheated places, but we are looking at the impact of longer term housing shortage and increased wealth in many areas, meaning we are not in same place as 2008. inflation is rising, fed will not immediately raise rates (probably taper bond purchases) but that could eventually put some downward pressure on prices and demand. the spring 21 bubble may "pop" and people who bought in 21 may not profit by selling in 23 (unlike those who bought in 19 and sold in 21) but most economic indicators do not point to a massive crash.

I guess different people look at data differently.

EVERY single economic indicator is in bubble territory and ripe for a crash. It just needs a trigger.

Look at what's happening in South Africa right now. Food inflation is leading (almost) to a civil war and the society breaking down. And we here in the US are seeing massive food inflation as well. And we have guns in private hands. A lot of guns. If people are hungry and cannot "afford" food, guess what's gonna happen?


The macroeconomics are challenging, it’s true. But the microeconomics of inside-the-beltway SFHs are still very bullish.

I have serious doubts about that as well. WFH is here to stay. And the govt (believe it or not) is a LOT more supportive of remote work than even some private companies. I'm a Beltway bandit (own a company that leeches off govt contracting dollars), and since the pandemic came to be and CDC/Fed guidance, over 90% of my workforce that were local to the DC area have moved outwards, if not across state lines. The Fed govt used to have a clause in their contracts, that the work will be performed onsite ONLY, and it applied to defense as well as civilian agencies.

No more. All civilian agencies have amended their contracts and removed that language.

"Inside the beltway" will remain, but only for high profile positions, think lobbyists and politicians. The normal working people don't necessarily will have to be close proximity anymore.


Downtown DC is waaaay less crowded during business hours, happy hours, and weekends. I don't think this really is due to the pandemic anymore as we have high vax rates around here.

I work in tech. Initially our company was going to bounce back to full time in person. Staff pushed back. Now we're looking at 3 days per week in the office. That's a pretty huge shift from our normal mode of living. With a schedule like that, I see absolutely no reason to blow $1.5M on a house in McLean just to save on commute. We are looking a couple counties west.
Anonymous
Post 07/15/2021 11:25     Subject: Re:I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:market may stabilize with some cooling off in overheated places, but we are looking at the impact of longer term housing shortage and increased wealth in many areas, meaning we are not in same place as 2008. inflation is rising, fed will not immediately raise rates (probably taper bond purchases) but that could eventually put some downward pressure on prices and demand. the spring 21 bubble may "pop" and people who bought in 21 may not profit by selling in 23 (unlike those who bought in 19 and sold in 21) but most economic indicators do not point to a massive crash.

I guess different people look at data differently.

EVERY single economic indicator is in bubble territory and ripe for a crash. It just needs a trigger.

Look at what's happening in South Africa right now. Food inflation is leading (almost) to a civil war and the society breaking down. And we here in the US are seeing massive food inflation as well. And we have guns in private hands. A lot of guns. If people are hungry and cannot "afford" food, guess what's gonna happen?


The macroeconomics are challenging, it’s true. But the microeconomics of inside-the-beltway SFHs are still very bullish.

I have serious doubts about that as well. WFH is here to stay. And the govt (believe it or not) is a LOT more supportive of remote work than even some private companies. I'm a Beltway bandit (own a company that leeches off govt contracting dollars), and since the pandemic came to be and CDC/Fed guidance, over 90% of my workforce that were local to the DC area have moved outwards, if not across state lines. The Fed govt used to have a clause in their contracts, that the work will be performed onsite ONLY, and it applied to defense as well as civilian agencies.

No more. All civilian agencies have amended their contracts and removed that language.

"Inside the beltway" will remain, but only for high profile positions, think lobbyists and politicians. The normal working people don't necessarily will have to be close proximity anymore.
Anonymous
Post 07/15/2021 11:17     Subject: Re:I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:market may stabilize with some cooling off in overheated places, but we are looking at the impact of longer term housing shortage and increased wealth in many areas, meaning we are not in same place as 2008. inflation is rising, fed will not immediately raise rates (probably taper bond purchases) but that could eventually put some downward pressure on prices and demand. the spring 21 bubble may "pop" and people who bought in 21 may not profit by selling in 23 (unlike those who bought in 19 and sold in 21) but most economic indicators do not point to a massive crash.

I guess different people look at data differently.

EVERY single economic indicator is in bubble territory and ripe for a crash. It just needs a trigger.

Look at what's happening in South Africa right now. Food inflation is leading (almost) to a civil war and the society breaking down. And we here in the US are seeing massive food inflation as well. And we have guns in private hands. A lot of guns. If people are hungry and cannot "afford" food, guess what's gonna happen?


The macroeconomics are challenging, it’s true. But the microeconomics of inside-the-beltway SFHs are still very bullish.
Anonymous
Post 07/15/2021 11:13     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Popping no. But slightly more rational.

My sister sold her 1941 colonial, nice house five bedrooms, three baths, two car garage and walking to train in great school area.

BUT last update to house was 1999. So all bathrooms and kitchen 22-30 years old including roof and furnace.

It also is missing a few COs. Basement bathroom and 400 square foot finished attic space.

She got a bag of cash couple months inspection for cash so no permits needed at above full price first week.

Honestly her taxes are low as house is listed as smaller and one less bathroom but still she turned a three bedroom house into a five bedroom house by converting attic above garage into two extra bedrooms with no permit!!!

I think those days are done. She get same price today but folks would want permits
Anonymous
Post 07/15/2021 11:09     Subject: Re:I think the bubble is popping.
I agree that every indicator shows we are in a bubble, mostly driven by Fed monetary policy. Stocks are overbought, with price-to-earnings ratios looking very much like the dotcom era. Speculative investment is rampant, another sign of a bubble. There is absolutely no way the government will be able to pay off its astronomical debt.

The trick is, what will cause the bubble to pop, when will it happen, and how bad will the crash be? No one has any idea.
Anonymous
Post 07/15/2021 10:58     Subject: Re:I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:market may stabilize with some cooling off in overheated places, but we are looking at the impact of longer term housing shortage and increased wealth in many areas, meaning we are not in same place as 2008. inflation is rising, fed will not immediately raise rates (probably taper bond purchases) but that could eventually put some downward pressure on prices and demand. the spring 21 bubble may "pop" and people who bought in 21 may not profit by selling in 23 (unlike those who bought in 19 and sold in 21) but most economic indicators do not point to a massive crash.

I guess different people look at data differently.

EVERY single economic indicator is in bubble territory and ripe for a crash. It just needs a trigger.

Look at what's happening in South Africa right now. Food inflation is leading (almost) to a civil war and the society breaking down. And we here in the US are seeing massive food inflation as well. And we have guns in private hands. A lot of guns. If people are hungry and cannot "afford" food, guess what's gonna happen?
Anonymous
Post 07/15/2021 09:51     Subject: Re:I think the bubble is popping.
market may stabilize with some cooling off in overheated places, but we are looking at the impact of longer term housing shortage and increased wealth in many areas, meaning we are not in same place as 2008. inflation is rising, fed will not immediately raise rates (probably taper bond purchases) but that could eventually put some downward pressure on prices and demand. the spring 21 bubble may "pop" and people who bought in 21 may not profit by selling in 23 (unlike those who bought in 19 and sold in 21) but most economic indicators do not point to a massive crash.
Anonymous
Post 07/14/2021 20:14     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:Wait a year and reassess.


That is what they said in 2020 and 2019 and 2018 and 2017…
Anonymous
Post 07/14/2021 20:10     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Wait a year and reassess.
Anonymous
Post 07/14/2021 20:04     Subject: Re:I think the bubble is popping.
We went to 2 open houses last weekend in NW DC. Both places went pending within a day, so no contingencies. I don’t think the bubble is popping, much as we wish it was.