Anonymous
05/26/2020 20:43
Subject: So is MOCO just never opening?
If MoCo is supposedly coordinating with DC and NOVA, why do they use such different metrics. DC uses 80% capacity in acute care bed utilization, while MoCo uses 70% as the level to beat. If MoCo used the same standard as DC, we would already have surpassed 14 consecutive days of compliance with that standard, but instead we are stuck at 1 day out of the last 14. It seems MoCo Health Dept and Elrich have created a formula intended to make us fail and stay shut in our homes forever until all hope of having jobs and having schools be able to open in the fall are crushed forever. Elrich and the entire MoCo Council that is in his pocket should resign immediately.
Anonymous
05/26/2020 14:56
Subject: So is MOCO just never opening?
Anonymous wrote:
Are you serious? We're talking about criteria for moving into phase 1 of a 3-phase reopening plan. We can't use acute care utilization being 5 percentage points above normal (which is what it is right now) as a reason to stay closed. We won't get to "normal" pre-pandemic acute care utilization until after this is over.
I don't see any evidence that they're planning to use it, all by itself, as a reason to continue the stay-at-home orders.
They have a group of measures. That's appropriate. This is one of them. That's also appropriate.
Anonymous
05/26/2020 14:34
Subject: So is MOCO just never opening?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
If you use a few well accepted metrics backed by a committee of medical / science professionals to interpret the results, then yes looking at it holistically makes sense.
But if you throw up a whole lot of metrics, some that don't even make sense or are not used elsewhere (hospital beds below pre-pandemic levels), you use unsophisticated data science (3 day averages - rather than real data scientists interpreting) - oh - and your committee is you the politician and one public health officer rather than real scientists, than no it doesn't make sense. What it does is allow you any answer at any time. Oh, and don't forget, you conveniently forget to disclose to the public the data on nursing homes which accounts for 74% of the deaths in Moco. . . . just to add in lack of transparency.
The metrics make sense. There's nothing wrong with 3-day averages. And I'm 99% certain that decision-making in Montgomery County involves more than 2 people.
You haven't been paying attention. Elrich said he is consulting with Gayles. That's it.
Also, the metrics do not all make sense. Some of them are fine, but others--like the 70% acute care bed utilization target, which is equivalent to pre-pandemic levels--do not make sense.
Typically, when executives make a decision, they don't make it completely on their own, or with one other person. It's "the buck stops here", it's not "I am the only one who handles the buck."
I think it makes total sense to include the acute care bed utilization rate. When it's above normal, that's a concern.
Are you serious? We're talking about criteria for moving into phase 1 of a 3-phase reopening plan. We can't use acute care utilization being 5 percentage points above normal (which is what it is right now) as a reason to stay closed. We won't get to "normal" pre-pandemic acute care utilization until after this is over.
Anonymous
05/26/2020 14:33
Subject: So is MOCO just never opening?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
If you use a few well accepted metrics backed by a committee of medical / science professionals to interpret the results, then yes looking at it holistically makes sense.
But if you throw up a whole lot of metrics, some that don't even make sense or are not used elsewhere (hospital beds below pre-pandemic levels), you use unsophisticated data science (3 day averages - rather than real data scientists interpreting) - oh - and your committee is you the politician and one public health officer rather than real scientists, than no it doesn't make sense. What it does is allow you any answer at any time. Oh, and don't forget, you conveniently forget to disclose to the public the data on nursing homes which accounts for 74% of the deaths in Moco. . . . just to add in lack of transparency.
The metrics make sense. There's nothing wrong with 3-day averages. And I'm 99% certain that decision-making in Montgomery County involves more than 2 people.
You haven't been paying attention. Elrich said he is consulting with Gayles. That's it.
Also, the metrics do not all make sense. Some of them are fine, but others--like the 70% acute care bed utilization target, which is equivalent to pre-pandemic levels--do not make sense.
Typically, when executives make a decision, they don't make it completely on their own, or with one other person. It's "the buck stops here", it's not "I am the only one who handles the buck."
I think it makes total sense to include the acute care bed utilization rate. When it's above normal, that's a concern.
Anonymous
05/26/2020 14:30
Subject: So is MOCO just never opening?
Anonymous wrote:
Sure, but what it means in practice is they're giving themselves wiggle room, so they can ignore certain metrics in the face of public pressure.
There are glaring inconsistencies. Elrich and Gayles say they are coordinating with NoVA and the District, but the plans, stay at home order expiration dates, etc. aren't consistent across all three jurisdictions, so how can they be coordinating?
You don't think that's appropriate?
At some point, if there's widespread non-compliance with the county closure policies/orders, and the county isn't willing to enforce them, then there's no point in continuing the county closure policies/orders. That's just realism.
Do you want the county police out citing and arresting people who aren't complying with the county closure policies/orders?
Anonymous
05/26/2020 14:22
Subject: So is MOCO just never opening?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
If you use a few well accepted metrics backed by a committee of medical / science professionals to interpret the results, then yes looking at it holistically makes sense.
But if you throw up a whole lot of metrics, some that don't even make sense or are not used elsewhere (hospital beds below pre-pandemic levels), you use unsophisticated data science (3 day averages - rather than real data scientists interpreting) - oh - and your committee is you the politician and one public health officer rather than real scientists, than no it doesn't make sense. What it does is allow you any answer at any time. Oh, and don't forget, you conveniently forget to disclose to the public the data on nursing homes which accounts for 74% of the deaths in Moco. . . . just to add in lack of transparency.
The metrics make sense. There's nothing wrong with 3-day averages. And I'm 99% certain that decision-making in Montgomery County involves more than 2 people.
You haven't been paying attention. Elrich said he is consulting with Gayles. That's it.
Also, the metrics do not all make sense. Some of them are fine, but others--like the 70% acute care bed utilization target, which is equivalent to pre-pandemic levels--do not make sense.
Anonymous
05/26/2020 14:20
Subject: So is MOCO just never opening?
Anonymous wrote:
If you use a few well accepted metrics backed by a committee of medical / science professionals to interpret the results, then yes looking at it holistically makes sense.
But if you throw up a whole lot of metrics, some that don't even make sense or are not used elsewhere (hospital beds below pre-pandemic levels), you use unsophisticated data science (3 day averages - rather than real data scientists interpreting) - oh - and your committee is you the politician and one public health officer rather than real scientists, than no it doesn't make sense. What it does is allow you any answer at any time. Oh, and don't forget, you conveniently forget to disclose to the public the data on nursing homes which accounts for 74% of the deaths in Moco. . . . just to add in lack of transparency.
The metrics make sense. There's nothing wrong with 3-day averages. And I'm 99% certain that decision-making in Montgomery County involves more than 2 people.
Anonymous
05/26/2020 14:10
Subject: So is MOCO just never opening?
Have you guys been out today? Memorial Day sparked something. Many more cars, people eating outside, etc. It's ending.
Anonymous
05/26/2020 14:05
Subject: So is MOCO just never opening?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Howard County is reopening more starting on Friday. I think Hogan is and did a good job. Montgomery and PG county's needs are far different than Garret's or Worchester's.
What I don't like is that lack of communication from Montgomery County.
Lack of communication? I'm getting multiple daily e-mails. This councilmember, that councilmember, this department, that department, this spokesperson, that newsletter... Not to mention everything all over social media.
I don't get the emails (lucky me?). I just checked the Montgomery County Government facebook page and saw information- thanks for pointing me in that direction. I suppose I want them to communicate with us how much closer we are to opening, not opening and to compare daily number to their reopening criteria. Honestly the Moco show guy does a million times better job at communicating this information to us.
I suppose I want to know when we will see light at the end of the tunnel, or even where the tunnel ends.
PP, everyone wants to know that, but unfortunately nobody has yet invented crystal ball that actually works.
In terms of a tunnel I mean what are the clear metrics Montgomery county will be using to go into phase 1 (not when covid is completely done). If there are concrete numbers, or concrete data they will be looking at I don't know about it. It's clear it's not just me either, many people seem to have the same questions I do.
Here are the metrics: https://montgomerycountymd.gov/HHS/RightNav/Coronavirus-data.html
If you read and listen to what Elrich says and even the website - its a bit they will look at these holistically , “consider together” along with their press statements that create grey areas as to what they mean. That’s the complaint.
I think it's completely appropriate for them to look at the metrics holistically. Don't you?
I understand that people want certainty. I do too. It's not Elrich's fault or failing that there isn't certainty, though. The lack of certainty is because the situation is uncertain.
If you use a few well accepted metrics backed by a committee of medical / science professionals to interpret the results, then yes looking at it holistically makes sense.
But if you throw up a whole lot of metrics, some that don't even make sense or are not used elsewhere (hospital beds below pre-pandemic levels), you use unsophisticated data science (3 day averages - rather than real data scientists interpreting) - oh - and your committee is you the politician and one public health officer rather than real scientists, than no it doesn't make sense. What it does is allow you any answer at any time. Oh, and don't forget, you conveniently forget to disclose to the public the data on nursing homes which accounts for 74% of the deaths in Moco. . . . just to add in lack of transparency.
Anonymous
05/26/2020 13:58
Subject: So is MOCO just never opening?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Howard County is reopening more starting on Friday. I think Hogan is and did a good job. Montgomery and PG county's needs are far different than Garret's or Worchester's.
What I don't like is that lack of communication from Montgomery County.
Lack of communication? I'm getting multiple daily e-mails. This councilmember, that councilmember, this department, that department, this spokesperson, that newsletter... Not to mention everything all over social media.
I don't get the emails (lucky me?). I just checked the Montgomery County Government facebook page and saw information- thanks for pointing me in that direction. I suppose I want them to communicate with us how much closer we are to opening, not opening and to compare daily number to their reopening criteria. Honestly the Moco show guy does a million times better job at communicating this information to us.
I suppose I want to know when we will see light at the end of the tunnel, or even where the tunnel ends.
PP, everyone wants to know that, but unfortunately nobody has yet invented crystal ball that actually works.
In terms of a tunnel I mean what are the clear metrics Montgomery county will be using to go into phase 1 (not when covid is completely done). If there are concrete numbers, or concrete data they will be looking at I don't know about it. It's clear it's not just me either, many people seem to have the same questions I do.
Here are the metrics: https://montgomerycountymd.gov/HHS/RightNav/Coronavirus-data.html
If you read and listen to what Elrich says and even the website - its a bit they will look at these holistically , “consider together” along with their press statements that create grey areas as to what they mean. That’s the complaint.
I think it's completely appropriate for them to look at the metrics holistically. Don't you?
I understand that people want certainty. I do too. It's not Elrich's fault or failing that there isn't certainty, though. The lack of certainty is because the situation is uncertain.
Sure, but what it means in practice is they're giving themselves wiggle room, so they can ignore certain metrics in the face of public pressure.
There are glaring inconsistencies. Elrich and Gayles say they are coordinating with NoVA and the District, but the plans, stay at home order expiration dates, etc. aren't consistent across all three jurisdictions, so how can they be coordinating?
Anonymous
05/26/2020 13:56
Subject: So is MOCO just never opening?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Howard County is reopening more starting on Friday. I think Hogan is and did a good job. Montgomery and PG county's needs are far different than Garret's or Worchester's.
What I don't like is that lack of communication from Montgomery County.
Lack of communication? I'm getting multiple daily e-mails. This councilmember, that councilmember, this department, that department, this spokesperson, that newsletter... Not to mention everything all over social media.
I don't get the emails (lucky me?). I just checked the Montgomery County Government facebook page and saw information- thanks for pointing me in that direction. I suppose I want them to communicate with us how much closer we are to opening, not opening and to compare daily number to their reopening criteria. Honestly the Moco show guy does a million times better job at communicating this information to us.
I suppose I want to know when we will see light at the end of the tunnel, or even where the tunnel ends.
PP, everyone wants to know that, but unfortunately nobody has yet invented crystal ball that actually works.
In terms of a tunnel I mean what are the clear metrics Montgomery county will be using to go into phase 1 (not when covid is completely done). If there are concrete numbers, or concrete data they will be looking at I don't know about it. It's clear it's not just me either, many people seem to have the same questions I do.
Here are the metrics: https://montgomerycountymd.gov/HHS/RightNav/Coronavirus-data.html
If you read and listen to what Elrich says and even the website - its a bit they will look at these holistically , “consider together” along with their press statements that create grey areas as to what they mean. That’s the complaint.
I think it's completely appropriate for them to look at the metrics holistically. Don't you?
I understand that people want certainty. I do too. It's not Elrich's fault or failing that there isn't certainty, though. The lack of certainty is because the situation is uncertain.
Anonymous
05/26/2020 13:37
Subject: So is MOCO just never opening?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Howard County is reopening more starting on Friday. I think Hogan is and did a good job. Montgomery and PG county's needs are far different than Garret's or Worchester's.
What I don't like is that lack of communication from Montgomery County.
Lack of communication? I'm getting multiple daily e-mails. This councilmember, that councilmember, this department, that department, this spokesperson, that newsletter... Not to mention everything all over social media.
I don't get the emails (lucky me?). I just checked the Montgomery County Government facebook page and saw information- thanks for pointing me in that direction. I suppose I want them to communicate with us how much closer we are to opening, not opening and to compare daily number to their reopening criteria. Honestly the Moco show guy does a million times better job at communicating this information to us.
I suppose I want to know when we will see light at the end of the tunnel, or even where the tunnel ends.
PP, everyone wants to know that, but unfortunately nobody has yet invented crystal ball that actually works.
In terms of a tunnel I mean what are the clear metrics Montgomery county will be using to go into phase 1 (not when covid is completely done). If there are concrete numbers, or concrete data they will be looking at I don't know about it. It's clear it's not just me either, many people seem to have the same questions I do.
Here are the metrics: https://montgomerycountymd.gov/HHS/RightNav/Coronavirus-data.html
If you read and listen to what Elrich says and even the website - its a bit they will look at these holistically , “consider together” along with their press statements that create grey areas as to what they mean. That’s the complaint.
Anonymous
05/26/2020 12:41
Subject: So is MOCO just never opening?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Howard County is reopening more starting on Friday. I think Hogan is and did a good job. Montgomery and PG county's needs are far different than Garret's or Worchester's.
What I don't like is that lack of communication from Montgomery County.
Lack of communication? I'm getting multiple daily e-mails. This councilmember, that councilmember, this department, that department, this spokesperson, that newsletter... Not to mention everything all over social media.
I don't get the emails (lucky me?). I just checked the Montgomery County Government facebook page and saw information- thanks for pointing me in that direction. I suppose I want them to communicate with us how much closer we are to opening, not opening and to compare daily number to their reopening criteria. Honestly the Moco show guy does a million times better job at communicating this information to us.
I suppose I want to know when we will see light at the end of the tunnel, or even where the tunnel ends.
PP, everyone wants to know that, but unfortunately nobody has yet invented crystal ball that actually works.
In terms of a tunnel I mean what are the clear metrics Montgomery county will be using to go into phase 1 (not when covid is completely done). If there are concrete numbers, or concrete data they will be looking at I don't know about it. It's clear it's not just me either, many people seem to have the same questions I do.
Here are the metrics: https://montgomerycountymd.gov/HHS/RightNav/Coronavirus-data.html
Anonymous
05/26/2020 12:32
Subject: So is MOCO just never opening?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Howard County is reopening more starting on Friday. I think Hogan is and did a good job. Montgomery and PG county's needs are far different than Garret's or Worchester's.
What I don't like is that lack of communication from Montgomery County.
Lack of communication? I'm getting multiple daily e-mails. This councilmember, that councilmember, this department, that department, this spokesperson, that newsletter... Not to mention everything all over social media.
I don't get the emails (lucky me?). I just checked the Montgomery County Government facebook page and saw information- thanks for pointing me in that direction. I suppose I want them to communicate with us how much closer we are to opening, not opening and to compare daily number to their reopening criteria. Honestly the Moco show guy does a million times better job at communicating this information to us.
I suppose I want to know when we will see light at the end of the tunnel, or even where the tunnel ends.
PP, everyone wants to know that, but unfortunately nobody has yet invented crystal ball that actually works.
In terms of a tunnel I mean what are the clear metrics Montgomery county will be using to go into phase 1 (not when covid is completely done). If there are concrete numbers, or concrete data they will be looking at I don't know about it. It's clear it's not just me either, many people seem to have the same questions I do.
Anonymous
05/26/2020 12:26
Subject: So is MOCO just never opening?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Howard County is reopening more starting on Friday. I think Hogan is and did a good job. Montgomery and PG county's needs are far different than Garret's or Worchester's.
What I don't like is that lack of communication from Montgomery County.
Lack of communication? I'm getting multiple daily e-mails. This councilmember, that councilmember, this department, that department, this spokesperson, that newsletter... Not to mention everything all over social media.
NP - I get the comms too. What I don’t get are clear guidance on what metrics they are really using to make a decision. Maybe that is purposeful as you can go either direction
There is also no transparency on the nursing home data even though published at state level
So it’s a lot of communicate to communicate, but not giving the real information on decisions
Here's the data dashboard: https://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/HHS/RightNav/Coronavirus-data.html
Here's yesterday's Bethesda Beat piece about the data in the dashboard: https://bethesdamagazine.com/bethesda-beat/coronavirus/covid-19-hospitalizations-falling-consistently-in-montgomery-county-this-month/
Yes, but is isn't clear how strict they're being on those metrics. Do we need to wait for all of them to get to 14 days? Unclear because Gayles also said we're coordinating with NoVA and the District, both of which appear to be on track to start reopening fairly soon. My NoVA friends say they think they're going to Phase 1 on Friday.