Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

"Major U.S. stock indexes were down in midday trading. New data showed U.S. manufacturers' supply costs jumped in February, as Trump’s tariff threats raise the specter of higher inflation."

Really taming that inflation on day 1 eh?


https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-03-03-2025?mod=hp_lead_pos3

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is this and the recalculation of GDP too high level for most people to panic? Trying to get the sense of how long we might have until the big crash.

Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

2/3 of the economy is consumer spending. That's all you need to know. The shit hasn't hit the fan yet and people are ALREADY pulling back. This is all you need to know. When their paychecks stop, from mass layoffs, then they cash in their 401Ks if they have one. For the people who lose medicaid and SNAP, which are mostly WORKING PEOPLE WHO GET 1099s or are seasonal workers, they will be on church and local food lines. And this will look like 1930. Make no mistake, DOGE, mass firings WILL cause a pretty swift recession. And potentially a massive depression. Go take a trip to Newport and tour one of the Robber Barron's mansions. Some day, in the not too distant future, you will be touring Ira Rennert's mansion. This is how it ends folks. Oh, and the USA as the beacon on the hill, will be the laughing stock as they align with Putin while the EU fills the vacuum. Trump has driven everything he has ever touched into bankruptcy. The US will be no different. I'm thrilled that I have an EU passport, I wish I had gotten it before my kids were born. They don't have it. I can leave and probably will.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So nothing happens when you take the G out of GDP?

I...my dude do you know what the G stands for?

+1

now I want to know what they think the D and the P stand for!

Look, renewing tax breaks has zero cost. There's no reason to include government spending in the calculation when it's mostly fraud and waste being taken care of by DOG.

Indeed. Those pesky $2k social security checks to grandma, which cover her rent and groceries? What a waste, definitely not contributing to anything.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So nothing happens when you take the G out of GDP?

I...my dude do you know what the G stands for?

+1

now I want to know what they think the D and the P stand for!

Look, renewing tax breaks has zero cost. There's no reason to include government spending in the calculation when it's mostly fraud and waste being taken care of by DOG.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Really, what are the predictions. Egg prices are already insane. Everyone is already cutting back expenses over fear of the future. People are being fired left and right. How long do you give it. Government programs aren't getting funded (farms, schools etc...) causing a ripple down across the country. How long till people not paying attention see it?

Democrats slaughtered most of America’s chickens. Next, please.

What other prices have skyrocketed?

Trump said he would fixed it in day 1. I lost track of what day 1 means.

It means he lied.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So nothing happens when you take the G out of GDP?

I...my dude do you know what the G stands for?

+1

now I want to know what they think the D and the P stand for!

I hope everyone knows that sh*t flows downhill. Look out little people outside the DMV. Musk is coming for your free school lunches, SNAP and WIC benefits. Also 80% of federal jobs are outside of the DMV. Get ready to be MAGAed.

Anonymous wrote:So nothing happens when you take the G out of GDP?

I...my dude do you know what the G stands for?

So nothing happens when you take the G out of GDP?

Anonymous wrote:I hope YOUR economy collapses. You all couldn’t just be content with your bureaucratic, do-nothing, $140,000 a year jobs—which the rest of us had to pay for.

No, you had to use the bureaucratic state to push left-wing ideology on the country in ways that were unquestionably illegal. Remember when you guys got military members fired for not taking the vaccine? (“No one elected Elon!” Interesting, now what about Fauci?)

So I don’t really care that you’re going to have to sell your Arlington home and go back to whatever LCOL town you’re originally from and try to start a new career at age 51. Sorry, not sorry.

You sounds bitter. A loser? We have more than enough cash to last Trump.

Anonymous wrote:Had trouble making a reservation for two for dinner yesterday (a Monday) in NW DC at somewhat high end places. I couldn't believe it! Doesn't seem like people are cutting back there yet.

We still have a lot of cash so if this down turn lasts less than 5 years we should be fine.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Really, what are the predictions. Egg prices are already insane. Everyone is already cutting back expenses over fear of the future. People are being fired left and right. How long do you give it. Government programs aren't getting funded (farms, schools etc...) causing a ripple down across the country. How long till people not paying attention see it?

Democrats slaughtered most of America’s chickens. Next, please.

What other prices have skyrocketed?

Trump said he would fixed it in day 1. I lost track of what day 1 means.