Anonymous wrote:Lets use NYC Stock Market Crash of 1987 as an example.

NYC was heavily dependent on Wall Street which had bulk of High Paying jobs.

Black Monday in October 1987 caused a massive amount of layoffs in a single sector over a few months. I worked in NYC at that time at my first job and my broker dealer of 18,000 fired 6,000 people by xmas.

Yet Park Avenue, Gramercy Park town homes and luxury condos, Greenwich CT, Manhasset NY and rich Westchester neighborhoods no panic selling at all.

What was being panic selling vacation homes in Hampton Bays, Poconos, Coops in Queens, dumpy investment properties. People are not selling their Townhome on Park Avenue or their water front home in Southampton they dump the crap.

I know I went house hunting then for a bargain and all I got was a one bedroom coop in Queens NY with no parking spot. No one was dumping their condo in SoHo, I know I tried.

That said, Dewey Beach, Ocean City, who knows if Feds will dump their rental properties or junky older condos. For sure they are not dumping their four bedroom house walking distance to Metro in Bethesda.

I have a nice house in DC myself. I live in with my family and an older dated two bedroom condo I rent out. Which would you sell if you had too?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Rent to whom? Too many homes, not enough jobs

There haven't been anywhere near enough homes in the DMV for years. Even if there were some "panic selling" there still wouldn't be enough -- even if the job market is terrible and less are buying.

This. I live in one of the worst school districts in MoCo and a house near us sold for 750k in one day on the market. There is huge pent up demand.

Most newer feds were priced out before they moved here.

The impact won’t be right now. I mean people just got laid off like last week.

So why are people posting lies about empty malls and a flooded real estate market? Sounds like wishful schadenfreude to me.

Anonymous wrote:https://mocoshow.com/2025/02/17/dc-metro-area-real-estate-listings-flooding-the-market-not-accurate-according-to-gcaar-president-elect-russell-brazil/

No panic selling yet

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The recent federal workforce reduction proposals, particularly targeting probationary employees, DEI-based contracts, and general federal downsizing, could lead to 64,500 - 114,400 job losses in the Washington, D.C. metro area. This includes 25,500 - 36,400 probationary federal employees who could face termination, 15,000 - 30,000 DEI-related contractor layoffs, and an additional 10,000 - 20,000 contractor losses from broader spending cuts. Reduction in Force measures could add 10,000 - 18,000 terminations, with 4,000 - 10,000 indirect job losses impacting support roles. These job losses disproportionately affect homeowners, as 50-60% of federal employees and contractors own homes. This means that between 32,000 - 68,000 homeowners in the D.C. metro area may be forced to sell if they cannot secure alternative employment.

While this suggests a potential inventory increase, the return-to-office mandate is driving demand for homes inside the Beltway and in the inner suburbs, mitigating some of the housing supply pressures. Many federal workers moved to outer suburban areas like Prince William, Loudoun, Frederick, and Stafford counties during the pandemic when remote work was dominant. Now, with agencies enforcing 3+ day-per-week office returns, 5-10% of the federal and contractor workforce (~664,000 workers) could decide to move closer to D.C., translating into 33,000 - 66,000 buyers relocating to inside-the-Beltway areas and inner suburbs.

The real estate market inside the Beltway is already experiencing price appreciation, with home values in D.C. proper and inner suburbs like Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, Silver Spring, and McLean rising by 8.7% year-over-year. Luxury real estate is particularly in demand due to political appointees, lobbyists, and high-income professionals seeking proximity to the new administration. While an increase in forced sales due to job losses may put some pressure on inventory, the demand from RTO-driven relocations and high-income buyers should offset much of this impact.

If every single affected homeowner (32,000 - 68,000) had to sell and none could secure another job, then theoretically, there could be an oversupply of homes in the inner D.C. region, leading to some downward pressure on prices. However, this is unlikely to occur at such a scale, as many job losses will be staggered over time, and a significant portion of workers will transition into other roles, either within the federal government, private sector, or contracting industry. Given that the estimated RTO-driven demand (33,000 - 66,000 buyers) nearly matches the worst-case forced-seller scenario (32,000 - 68,000 homes entering the market), prices are expected to remain stable or see moderate growth.

Historically, the Washington, D.C. housing market has always had stronger demand inside the Beltway compared to the outer suburbs. Pre-pandemic, areas such as Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, McLean, and Silver Spring were highly desirable due to proximity to federal offices, amenities, and strong school districts. However, COVID-19 caused an exodus to the exurbs as remote work became widespread, leading to an artificial surge in demand and prices in areas like Loudoun, Prince William, and Frederick counties. Home price growth in exurban areas exceeded 15% year-over-year at its peak, compared to 14% in traditional suburbs and 10% in urban centers (nowbam.com). With the shift back to in-office work, many of these outer areas are now seeing declining demand, and home values are beginning to correct.

In contrast, inner-Beltway neighborhoods with strong school systems and transit access remain resilient. The fundamental factors that made these areas desirable before COVID (proximity, infrastructure, job access, schools) are still in place. The further out you go from the Beltway, the more home prices will remain flat or decline, as demand softens for pandemic-era commuter belt expansions. Outer exurbs, which saw some of the highest appreciation during COVID, are at the greatest risk of price corrections.

This worst-case scenario assumes that every affected federal employee and contractor (32,000 - 68,000 homeowners) is unable to secure another job and must sell their home, which is highly unlikely. Many will find alternative employment within the federal government, private sector, or through new contracts, reducing the number of forced sales. However, even in this extreme case, the data shows a clear divide in how different areas of the D.C. metro housing market will be impacted.

Outside the Beltway, particularly in the exurbs (Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick, and Stafford counties), home values will likely decline. The pandemic-driven remote work boom artificially inflated demand and home prices in these areas, and with RTO mandates and federal workforce cuts, demand is shifting back toward closer-in locations. The combination of increased supply from job losses and reduced demand from relocating workers is expected to put downward pressure on home prices in these outer regions.

Conversely, inside the Beltway, the market is expected to remain stable or even improve. Demand for homes in areas with good schools, transit access, and proximity to federal offices (such as Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, Silver Spring, and McLean) remains strong, driven by RTO relocations, high-income buyers (political appointees, lobbyists, and executives), and the underlying pre-COVID market fundamentals that always made these areas desirable. With 33,000 - 66,000 buyers moving inside the Beltway due to RTO, the impact of forced home sales from job losses should be fully or mostly absorbed by new demand, keeping prices flat to positive.

Bottom line: Even in the most extreme case, the inner-Beltway market is positioned to hold or grow in value, while outer suburban and exurban markets will likely see price declines as demand corrects from its pandemic-era surge.

Finally a voice of common sense.

The topic of panic selling is being discussed because feds are being laid off. Are you still with me, because this is the part you are missing. No fed or fed contractor or anyone in a fed adjacent job is going to sell their house and rent to be closer to a job they might not have in a week. Your logic is flawed.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The recent federal workforce reduction proposals, particularly targeting probationary employees, DEI-based contracts, and general federal downsizing, could lead to 64,500 - 114,400 job losses in the Washington, D.C. metro area. This includes 25,500 - 36,400 probationary federal employees who could face termination, 15,000 - 30,000 DEI-related contractor layoffs, and an additional 10,000 - 20,000 contractor losses from broader spending cuts. Reduction in Force measures could add 10,000 - 18,000 terminations, with 4,000 - 10,000 indirect job losses impacting support roles. These job losses disproportionately affect homeowners, as 50-60% of federal employees and contractors own homes. This means that between 32,000 - 68,000 homeowners in the D.C. metro area may be forced to sell if they cannot secure alternative employment.

While this suggests a potential inventory increase, the return-to-office mandate is driving demand for homes inside the Beltway and in the inner suburbs, mitigating some of the housing supply pressures. Many federal workers moved to outer suburban areas like Prince William, Loudoun, Frederick, and Stafford counties during the pandemic when remote work was dominant. Now, with agencies enforcing 3+ day-per-week office returns, 5-10% of the federal and contractor workforce (~664,000 workers) could decide to move closer to D.C., translating into 33,000 - 66,000 buyers relocating to inside-the-Beltway areas and inner suburbs.

The real estate market inside the Beltway is already experiencing price appreciation, with home values in D.C. proper and inner suburbs like Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, Silver Spring, and McLean rising by 8.7% year-over-year. Luxury real estate is particularly in demand due to political appointees, lobbyists, and high-income professionals seeking proximity to the new administration. While an increase in forced sales due to job losses may put some pressure on inventory, the demand from RTO-driven relocations and high-income buyers should offset much of this impact.

If every single affected homeowner (32,000 - 68,000) had to sell and none could secure another job, then theoretically, there could be an oversupply of homes in the inner D.C. region, leading to some downward pressure on prices. However, this is unlikely to occur at such a scale, as many job losses will be staggered over time, and a significant portion of workers will transition into other roles, either within the federal government, private sector, or contracting industry. Given that the estimated RTO-driven demand (33,000 - 66,000 buyers) nearly matches the worst-case forced-seller scenario (32,000 - 68,000 homes entering the market), prices are expected to remain stable or see moderate growth.

Historically, the Washington, D.C. housing market has always had stronger demand inside the Beltway compared to the outer suburbs. Pre-pandemic, areas such as Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, McLean, and Silver Spring were highly desirable due to proximity to federal offices, amenities, and strong school districts. However, COVID-19 caused an exodus to the exurbs as remote work became widespread, leading to an artificial surge in demand and prices in areas like Loudoun, Prince William, and Frederick counties. Home price growth in exurban areas exceeded 15% year-over-year at its peak, compared to 14% in traditional suburbs and 10% in urban centers (nowbam.com). With the shift back to in-office work, many of these outer areas are now seeing declining demand, and home values are beginning to correct.

In contrast, inner-Beltway neighborhoods with strong school systems and transit access remain resilient. The fundamental factors that made these areas desirable before COVID (proximity, infrastructure, job access, schools) are still in place. The further out you go from the Beltway, the more home prices will remain flat or decline, as demand softens for pandemic-era commuter belt expansions. Outer exurbs, which saw some of the highest appreciation during COVID, are at the greatest risk of price corrections.

This worst-case scenario assumes that every affected federal employee and contractor (32,000 - 68,000 homeowners) is unable to secure another job and must sell their home, which is highly unlikely. Many will find alternative employment within the federal government, private sector, or through new contracts, reducing the number of forced sales. However, even in this extreme case, the data shows a clear divide in how different areas of the D.C. metro housing market will be impacted.

Outside the Beltway, particularly in the exurbs (Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick, and Stafford counties), home values will likely decline. The pandemic-driven remote work boom artificially inflated demand and home prices in these areas, and with RTO mandates and federal workforce cuts, demand is shifting back toward closer-in locations. The combination of increased supply from job losses and reduced demand from relocating workers is expected to put downward pressure on home prices in these outer regions.

Conversely, inside the Beltway, the market is expected to remain stable or even improve. Demand for homes in areas with good schools, transit access, and proximity to federal offices (such as Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, Silver Spring, and McLean) remains strong, driven by RTO relocations, high-income buyers (political appointees, lobbyists, and executives), and the underlying pre-COVID market fundamentals that always made these areas desirable. With 33,000 - 66,000 buyers moving inside the Beltway due to RTO, the impact of forced home sales from job losses should be fully or mostly absorbed by new demand, keeping prices flat to positive.

Bottom line: Even in the most extreme case, the inner-Beltway market is positioned to hold or grow in value, while outer suburban and exurban markets will likely see price declines as demand corrects from its pandemic-era surge.

Finally a voice of common sense.

The topic of panic selling is being discussed because feds are being laid off. Are you still with me, because this is the part you are missing. No fed or fed contractor or anyone in a fed adjacent job is going to sell their house and rent to be closer to a job they might not have in a week. Your logic is flawed.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The recent federal workforce reduction proposals, particularly targeting probationary employees, DEI-based contracts, and general federal downsizing, could lead to 64,500 - 114,400 job losses in the Washington, D.C. metro area. This includes 25,500 - 36,400 probationary federal employees who could face termination, 15,000 - 30,000 DEI-related contractor layoffs, and an additional 10,000 - 20,000 contractor losses from broader spending cuts. Reduction in Force measures could add 10,000 - 18,000 terminations, with 4,000 - 10,000 indirect job losses impacting support roles. These job losses disproportionately affect homeowners, as 50-60% of federal employees and contractors own homes. This means that between 32,000 - 68,000 homeowners in the D.C. metro area may be forced to sell if they cannot secure alternative employment.

While this suggests a potential inventory increase, the return-to-office mandate is driving demand for homes inside the Beltway and in the inner suburbs, mitigating some of the housing supply pressures. Many federal workers moved to outer suburban areas like Prince William, Loudoun, Frederick, and Stafford counties during the pandemic when remote work was dominant. Now, with agencies enforcing 3+ day-per-week office returns, 5-10% of the federal and contractor workforce (~664,000 workers) could decide to move closer to D.C., translating into 33,000 - 66,000 buyers relocating to inside-the-Beltway areas and inner suburbs.

The real estate market inside the Beltway is already experiencing price appreciation, with home values in D.C. proper and inner suburbs like Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, Silver Spring, and McLean rising by 8.7% year-over-year. Luxury real estate is particularly in demand due to political appointees, lobbyists, and high-income professionals seeking proximity to the new administration. While an increase in forced sales due to job losses may put some pressure on inventory, the demand from RTO-driven relocations and high-income buyers should offset much of this impact.

If every single affected homeowner (32,000 - 68,000) had to sell and none could secure another job, then theoretically, there could be an oversupply of homes in the inner D.C. region, leading to some downward pressure on prices. However, this is unlikely to occur at such a scale, as many job losses will be staggered over time, and a significant portion of workers will transition into other roles, either within the federal government, private sector, or contracting industry. Given that the estimated RTO-driven demand (33,000 - 66,000 buyers) nearly matches the worst-case forced-seller scenario (32,000 - 68,000 homes entering the market), prices are expected to remain stable or see moderate growth.

Historically, the Washington, D.C. housing market has always had stronger demand inside the Beltway compared to the outer suburbs. Pre-pandemic, areas such as Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, McLean, and Silver Spring were highly desirable due to proximity to federal offices, amenities, and strong school districts. However, COVID-19 caused an exodus to the exurbs as remote work became widespread, leading to an artificial surge in demand and prices in areas like Loudoun, Prince William, and Frederick counties. Home price growth in exurban areas exceeded 15% year-over-year at its peak, compared to 14% in traditional suburbs and 10% in urban centers (nowbam.com). With the shift back to in-office work, many of these outer areas are now seeing declining demand, and home values are beginning to correct.

In contrast, inner-Beltway neighborhoods with strong school systems and transit access remain resilient. The fundamental factors that made these areas desirable before COVID (proximity, infrastructure, job access, schools) are still in place. The further out you go from the Beltway, the more home prices will remain flat or decline, as demand softens for pandemic-era commuter belt expansions. Outer exurbs, which saw some of the highest appreciation during COVID, are at the greatest risk of price corrections.

This worst-case scenario assumes that every affected federal employee and contractor (32,000 - 68,000 homeowners) is unable to secure another job and must sell their home, which is highly unlikely. Many will find alternative employment within the federal government, private sector, or through new contracts, reducing the number of forced sales. However, even in this extreme case, the data shows a clear divide in how different areas of the D.C. metro housing market will be impacted.

Outside the Beltway, particularly in the exurbs (Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick, and Stafford counties), home values will likely decline. The pandemic-driven remote work boom artificially inflated demand and home prices in these areas, and with RTO mandates and federal workforce cuts, demand is shifting back toward closer-in locations. The combination of increased supply from job losses and reduced demand from relocating workers is expected to put downward pressure on home prices in these outer regions.

Conversely, inside the Beltway, the market is expected to remain stable or even improve. Demand for homes in areas with good schools, transit access, and proximity to federal offices (such as Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, Silver Spring, and McLean) remains strong, driven by RTO relocations, high-income buyers (political appointees, lobbyists, and executives), and the underlying pre-COVID market fundamentals that always made these areas desirable. With 33,000 - 66,000 buyers moving inside the Beltway due to RTO, the impact of forced home sales from job losses should be fully or mostly absorbed by new demand, keeping prices flat to positive.

Bottom line: Even in the most extreme case, the inner-Beltway market is positioned to hold or grow in value, while outer suburban and exurban markets will likely see price declines as demand corrects from its pandemic-era surge.

Finally a voice of common sense.

Anonymous wrote:The recent federal workforce reduction proposals, particularly targeting probationary employees, DEI-based contracts, and general federal downsizing, could lead to 64,500 - 114,400 job losses in the Washington, D.C. metro area. This includes 25,500 - 36,400 probationary federal employees who could face termination, 15,000 - 30,000 DEI-related contractor layoffs, and an additional 10,000 - 20,000 contractor losses from broader spending cuts. Reduction in Force measures could add 10,000 - 18,000 terminations, with 4,000 - 10,000 indirect job losses impacting support roles. These job losses disproportionately affect homeowners, as 50-60% of federal employees and contractors own homes. This means that between 32,000 - 68,000 homeowners in the D.C. metro area may be forced to sell if they cannot secure alternative employment.

While this suggests a potential inventory increase, the return-to-office mandate is driving demand for homes inside the Beltway and in the inner suburbs, mitigating some of the housing supply pressures. Many federal workers moved to outer suburban areas like Prince William, Loudoun, Frederick, and Stafford counties during the pandemic when remote work was dominant. Now, with agencies enforcing 3+ day-per-week office returns, 5-10% of the federal and contractor workforce (~664,000 workers) could decide to move closer to D.C., translating into 33,000 - 66,000 buyers relocating to inside-the-Beltway areas and inner suburbs.

The real estate market inside the Beltway is already experiencing price appreciation, with home values in D.C. proper and inner suburbs like Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, Silver Spring, and McLean rising by 8.7% year-over-year. Luxury real estate is particularly in demand due to political appointees, lobbyists, and high-income professionals seeking proximity to the new administration. While an increase in forced sales due to job losses may put some pressure on inventory, the demand from RTO-driven relocations and high-income buyers should offset much of this impact.

If every single affected homeowner (32,000 - 68,000) had to sell and none could secure another job, then theoretically, there could be an oversupply of homes in the inner D.C. region, leading to some downward pressure on prices. However, this is unlikely to occur at such a scale, as many job losses will be staggered over time, and a significant portion of workers will transition into other roles, either within the federal government, private sector, or contracting industry. Given that the estimated RTO-driven demand (33,000 - 66,000 buyers) nearly matches the worst-case forced-seller scenario (32,000 - 68,000 homes entering the market), prices are expected to remain stable or see moderate growth.

Historically, the Washington, D.C. housing market has always had stronger demand inside the Beltway compared to the outer suburbs. Pre-pandemic, areas such as Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, McLean, and Silver Spring were highly desirable due to proximity to federal offices, amenities, and strong school districts. However, COVID-19 caused an exodus to the exurbs as remote work became widespread, leading to an artificial surge in demand and prices in areas like Loudoun, Prince William, and Frederick counties. Home price growth in exurban areas exceeded 15% year-over-year at its peak, compared to 14% in traditional suburbs and 10% in urban centers (nowbam.com). With the shift back to in-office work, many of these outer areas are now seeing declining demand, and home values are beginning to correct.

In contrast, inner-Beltway neighborhoods with strong school systems and transit access remain resilient. The fundamental factors that made these areas desirable before COVID (proximity, infrastructure, job access, schools) are still in place. The further out you go from the Beltway, the more home prices will remain flat or decline, as demand softens for pandemic-era commuter belt expansions. Outer exurbs, which saw some of the highest appreciation during COVID, are at the greatest risk of price corrections.

This worst-case scenario assumes that every affected federal employee and contractor (32,000 - 68,000 homeowners) is unable to secure another job and must sell their home, which is highly unlikely. Many will find alternative employment within the federal government, private sector, or through new contracts, reducing the number of forced sales. However, even in this extreme case, the data shows a clear divide in how different areas of the D.C. metro housing market will be impacted.

Outside the Beltway, particularly in the exurbs (Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick, and Stafford counties), home values will likely decline. The pandemic-driven remote work boom artificially inflated demand and home prices in these areas, and with RTO mandates and federal workforce cuts, demand is shifting back toward closer-in locations. The combination of increased supply from job losses and reduced demand from relocating workers is expected to put downward pressure on home prices in these outer regions.

Conversely, inside the Beltway, the market is expected to remain stable or even improve. Demand for homes in areas with good schools, transit access, and proximity to federal offices (such as Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, Silver Spring, and McLean) remains strong, driven by RTO relocations, high-income buyers (political appointees, lobbyists, and executives), and the underlying pre-COVID market fundamentals that always made these areas desirable. With 33,000 - 66,000 buyers moving inside the Beltway due to RTO, the impact of forced home sales from job losses should be fully or mostly absorbed by new demand, keeping prices flat to positive.

Bottom line: Even in the most extreme case, the inner-Beltway market is positioned to hold or grow in value, while outer suburban and exurban markets will likely see price declines as demand corrects from its pandemic-era surge.

Anonymous wrote:I'm wondering if this could eventually spill over to the second/vacation home markets that are popular with DMV crowd... Delaware beaches, Shenandoah, OBX, etc.

Anonymous wrote:I'm wondering if this could eventually spill over to the second/vacation home markets that are popular with DMV crowd... Delaware beaches, Shenandoah, OBX, etc.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Rent to whom? Too many homes, not enough jobs

There haven't been anywhere near enough homes in the DMV for years. Even if there were some "panic selling" there still wouldn't be enough -- even if the job market is terrible and less are buying.

This. I live in one of the worst school districts in MoCo and a house near us sold for 750k in one day on the market. There is huge pent up demand.

Most newer feds were priced out before they moved here.

The impact won’t be right now. I mean people just got laid off like last week.

So why are people posting lies about empty malls and a flooded real estate market? Sounds like wishful schadenfreude to me.

We need to see if these homes sell easily. In more middle class areas I doubt it. The rich areas won’t be impacted.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Rent to whom? Too many homes, not enough jobs

There haven't been anywhere near enough homes in the DMV for years. Even if there were some "panic selling" there still wouldn't be enough -- even if the job market is terrible and less are buying.

This. I live in one of the worst school districts in MoCo and a house near us sold for 750k in one day on the market. There is huge pent up demand.

Most newer feds were priced out before they moved here.

The impact won’t be right now. I mean people just got laid off like last week.

So why are people posting lies about empty malls and a flooded real estate market? Sounds like wishful schadenfreude to me.