Anonymous
Post 06/17/2021 08:28     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Some sellers have really lost their minds. In my close in Bethesda neighborhood, 3 of 4 current listings are for $2m+. One of them might be worth that - and that one is listed for $3.5, which is nuts.
Anonymous
Post 06/17/2021 08:27     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:Actively shopping. Threw in an offer yesterday - inflation is here and real. Our interest rates for preapproval immediately went from 2.75% to 3%. Yeah, still very low, but this is something to watch very closely. The Fed was more hawkish yesterday. If interest rates rapidly rise over the next 6-10 months up to 4-5%, it will take a gigantic bite out of what people can afford. The story that the Fed think inflation is 'transitory' only may be starting to fall apart. Peak prices were probably back in January or so.


Meaning: Do not get a mortgage with an ARM.
Anonymous
Post 06/17/2021 08:11     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Actively shopping. Threw in an offer yesterday - inflation is here and real. Our interest rates for preapproval immediately went from 2.75% to 3%. Yeah, still very low, but this is something to watch very closely. The Fed was more hawkish yesterday. If interest rates rapidly rise over the next 6-10 months up to 4-5%, it will take a gigantic bite out of what people can afford. The story that the Fed think inflation is 'transitory' only may be starting to fall apart. Peak prices were probably back in January or so.
Anonymous
Post 06/16/2021 23:28     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:The pandemic is over. People who wanted to move now feel safe trying to do so, which means they have homes to sell. There's a bit of a conundrum in that no one wants to put their home on the market if they can't find another place to live, but I bet those worries will subside as the pandemic is over and we all get back to normal in 2022. The days of crappy homes getting 10 offers with vastly over asking bids are probably ending, so if you want to sell, now is the time to do it before the peak ends. 2022 and beyond will likely get back to normal. Any rate hike will potentially knock a lot of wind out of the market. People have gotten used to almost 15 years of cheap money. The days of cheap lending may be ending though.


Yeah maybe, but good gosh - millions of homeowners have already refinanced into absurdly low rates and are locked in for the next 15-30 years.
Anonymous
Post 06/16/2021 23:26     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:I’m not even sure if price reductions are an indicator if people are shooting for the moon while listing.


Yeah no kidding. If a home should be $600k, and the sellers are dreamily listing for $725 and eventually have to cut the price to $650k ...is that really something that buyers should hang their hats on?
Anonymous
Post 06/16/2021 20:12     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I am shopping in rockville/Potomac area and I can tell you most assuredly that for nice houses, the bubble is not popping. People are still YOLOing


Same, I'm shopping in Vienna


Same in McLean. Nothing is slowing down.

Mclean was as expensive as Bethesda from January to March, but now you can get a decent house in McLean for around 1.5m. It’s still impossible to get one in Bethesda due to the lack of inventory!
Anonymous
Post 06/16/2021 15:00     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I am shopping in rockville/Potomac area and I can tell you most assuredly that for nice houses, the bubble is not popping. People are still YOLOing


Same, I'm shopping in Vienna


Same in McLean. Nothing is slowing down.
Anonymous
Post 06/15/2021 17:19     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:The pandemic is over. People who wanted to move now feel safe trying to do so, which means they have homes to sell. There's a bit of a conundrum in that no one wants to put their home on the market if they can't find another place to live, but I bet those worries will subside as the pandemic is over and we all get back to normal in 2022. The days of crappy homes getting 10 offers with vastly over asking bids are probably ending, so if you want to sell, now is the time to do it before the peak ends. 2022 and beyond will likely get back to normal. Any rate hike will potentially knock a lot of wind out of the market. People have gotten used to almost 15 years of cheap money. The days of cheap lending may be ending though.

Millennials are in their 40s and looking to settle down. Inventory is still at historic lows. Nationally, household balance sheets look great and home equity levels are in very good shape. I agree that a rate hike could slow things down, but there is still a lot of tailwind in this market for many years to come.
Anonymous
Post 06/15/2021 13:18     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Slow down. And sellers in our neighborhood have gotten greedy, but put their houses on the market too late for the hot spring market.
Anonymous
Post 06/15/2021 13:15     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:I am shopping in rockville/Potomac area and I can tell you most assuredly that for nice houses, the bubble is not popping. People are still YOLOing


Same, I'm shopping in Vienna
Anonymous
Post 06/15/2021 13:13     Subject: Re:I think the bubble is popping.
We just saw a house (showings started noon) and they have 30 showings scheduled so far. beautiful renovation, well done, great area, etc. for the right house, its still hot.
Anonymous
Post 06/15/2021 13:05     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
The pandemic is over. People who wanted to move now feel safe trying to do so, which means they have homes to sell. There's a bit of a conundrum in that no one wants to put their home on the market if they can't find another place to live, but I bet those worries will subside as the pandemic is over and we all get back to normal in 2022. The days of crappy homes getting 10 offers with vastly over asking bids are probably ending, so if you want to sell, now is the time to do it before the peak ends. 2022 and beyond will likely get back to normal. Any rate hike will potentially knock a lot of wind out of the market. People have gotten used to almost 15 years of cheap money. The days of cheap lending may be ending though.
Anonymous
Post 06/15/2021 12:48     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
I think the time to sell less desirable homes (off of main road, not fixed up, issues with water, etc) is passing by. Move in ready homes have been and always will be desired in our area and will go for a premium.
Anonymous
Post 06/15/2021 12:21     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
i'm getting a lot of price reduction alerts for the market i'm looking at, but these houses are also duds. Still any price reduction is good for slowing the cost of owning a home, i guess.

Also seems to be a general slow down heading into the summer which is unfortunate because i'm not tied to the school year.
Anonymous
Post 06/15/2021 12:19     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:I am in Fairfax and a house just went 200K over asking. it is not a great house but it is in a desirable pyramid. I dob't think it has burst everywhere.


It hasn't burst anywhere. There is no bubble. That doesn't mean price appreciation hasn't slowed down and inventory increased.