Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look at the data on Naviance to see the fraction of the recent classes at each tier (hypsm, other ivies, then the rest of Usnwr t30 plus 4 slacs).

Try to figure out where in the class DC ranks. (This is hard to do now without class ranking data but you need to make a guesstimate.)

This will give you a more realistic estimate of likely outcomes than either “it’s impossible” or “I’m at ___, I’ll get in.”

Just keep in mind some of those admits will be athletes, URM, and legacy

We’ve been over this already. The fraction of a Big 3 class that’s good enough to get recruited is very small. (Hint — if you’re good enough to get recruited, then you’re dominating your current level of competition.)

Legacy isn’t worth very much.

URM you can probably figure out. Just adjust your estimate of your class rank to account for this.

This is not true. Ten STA recruited athletes this year in a class of 75. Most D3 not D1 and not nationally notable or ranked. This is a typical year.

Anonymous wrote:UMC white kids including those at Big 3s can write off the top 25 schools regardless of grades and test scores unless they have developed a cure for cancer or the equivalent or qualified for the Olympics.

Ask me how I know.

So just sit back and let your child find an OK school that resonates with them.

This isn’t remotely true. Seniors at our private continue to do very well at the top 25. The key is to remember it’s an arbitrary process and pick your schools carefully with safeties your kid would be happy to attend.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look at the data on Naviance to see the fraction of the recent classes at each tier (hypsm, other ivies, then the rest of Usnwr t30 plus 4 slacs).

Try to figure out where in the class DC ranks. (This is hard to do now without class ranking data but you need to make a guesstimate.)

This will give you a more realistic estimate of likely outcomes than either “it’s impossible” or “I’m at ___, I’ll get in.”

Just keep in mind some of those admits will be athletes, URM, and legacy

At least half of them will be. Being in the top 20% of the class does not mean your kid will get into the top 20% of schools on the high school’s matriculation list. If you think that way, you will be disappointed.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look at the data on Naviance to see the fraction of the recent classes at each tier (hypsm, other ivies, then the rest of Usnwr t30 plus 4 slacs).

Try to figure out where in the class DC ranks. (This is hard to do now without class ranking data but you need to make a guesstimate.)

This will give you a more realistic estimate of likely outcomes than either “it’s impossible” or “I’m at ___, I’ll get in.”

Just keep in mind some of those admits will be athletes, URM, and legacy

We’ve been over this already. The fraction of a Big 3 class that’s good enough to get recruited is very small. (Hint — if you’re good enough to get recruited, then you’re dominating your current level of competition.)

Legacy isn’t worth very much.

URM you can probably figure out. Just adjust your estimate of your class rank to account for this.

Anonymous wrote:Look at the data on Naviance to see the fraction of the recent classes at each tier (hypsm, other ivies, then the rest of Usnwr t30 plus 4 slacs).

Try to figure out where in the class DC ranks. (This is hard to do now without class ranking data but you need to make a guesstimate.)

This will give you a more realistic estimate of likely outcomes than either “it’s impossible” or “I’m at ___, I’ll get in.”

Just keep in mind some of those admits will be athletes, URM, and legacy

Anonymous wrote:My DC is at a Big 3 ending 10th about to start the college process. Any advice for staying sane?

He/she has good EC's (one really interesting/unique one that they are genuinely into), good grades but not perfect, lots of rigorous classes, This child will probably have very strong standardised scores. My kid is already worried and stressed out hearing how "Impossible" it is to get into a "good school" from older kids. My husband and I went to Ivy's but know that is probably not in the cards - given how competitive it is now. We want our kid to be happy for the next two years and find the right fit. It all seems so crazy now....Help? Advice? Anything you would have done differently

Here is what we did.

We took our child's unique(ish) extracurricular as being important.
She undertook making a list of schools that were both excellent in her general area of professional interest as well as offered the extracurricular. The aim was for her area of interest being nationally ranked and her area of hobby being accessible (i.e. good, but not too good, so she would have a chance to fully participate without killing her academics). Then we superimposed some financial considerations; that is a whole separate post.

She then applied to 13 schools. She wrote her essays about her extracurricular, about some challenges in her life, about her internship, and about her achievements. She wrote about being grateful to her teachers.

She most definitely pulled out all stops applying to our state flagship. That essay was HONED. At baseline, if nothing else works, state flagship is like a dependable Corolla that will get you places. She was admitted to Honors and would have been happy to attend.

Then there was Pitt, which is known to give scholarships to a kid with her level of achievement, matching our in-state tuition, just in case our state flagship had a bad day and did not admit her

She probably should have applied to a few 2nd tier state schools just in case, seeking a full ride, but Pitt offered rolling admissions. The difference between Pitt and any 2nd tier state school was in Pitt's favor. She just kind stopped there. Some people in our situation also apply to Alabama, midwestern big 10 etc. Several friends got excellent merit packages. Our admission strategy worked, but in retrospect it was dumb that she did not apply to, say, Wisconsin. If there was something I would recommend changing, this would be it.
However, once Pitt admitted her with a good scholarship, she chose to shoot for the stars only.

That was our plan B, and I just expanded a bit on that plan B to show what I would have done differently in 2022.

Everything else is standard, apply to Ivies (+), wait for regular decision, see if you win the lottery. She did win, yay! but if she did not, plan B would have worked well.

Look at the data on Naviance to see the fraction of the recent classes at each tier (hypsm, other ivies, then the rest of Usnwr t30 plus 4 slacs).

Try to figure out where in the class DC ranks. (This is hard to do now without class ranking data but you need to make a guesstimate.)

This will give you a more realistic estimate of likely outcomes than either “it’s impossible” or “I’m at ___, I’ll get in.”

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Start now to reframe the definition of "good school." He does not need to go to the same 10 schools everyone aims for to be a happy, successful person.

Bingo! This is the best advice.

someone who refers to their kid's school as a "Big 3" is probably not going to drop that perspective when it comes to the status of the college their kids attends

That was my thought. If the Big 3 qualifier is relevant enough to the OP to state it twice, it's meaningful to them for a reason that will likely make it difficult to remain calm during their DC's application process.

Trust the college counselors at your school. They know what they are doing, despite what this Board might tell you. Start visits with less competitive schools that are realistic before hitting the Top Tens, or Twenties. Let your child see that they can be comfortable at a range of schools before they fall in love with a school that may be unattainable. Let them drive the process but if at any time they seem frozen by the stress of it all, let someone in the college counseling office or another adult at school who they trust try to break through. Kids find their parents REALLY annoying during this process. It does not last!

Really, you might consider a CTCL panel presentation. They help families to approach the search in a very sane and healthy manner, whether your kid would ever in a million years applying to a CTCL school or not. I went with my daughter, and it gave us both very solid guidance on how to avoid family tensions during the search, how to schedule campus visits, why fit matters so much and what it looks like, not to compare lists with your friends, etc.

I feel like their philosophy gave us both another model to consider. It really helped my daughter be at peace with pursuing what she wanted, regardless of what her friends or USNWR thought.

Taking what you know about her and her tastes/preferences, just help her make a list of schools that would be exciting to consider, at all levels of selectivity. They are out there. Perhaps start with a Princeton Review Guide to find solid options that may or may be on the lips of her peers.

Good luck with it all! Your instincts sound good.