Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DD got in to an Ivy off a wait-list last year. Hope that offers hope.

Congratulations to your DD! But this year is completely different than last year. In fact, it’s because so many seniors deferred last year that there were spots open for colleges to fill from their waitlists then and fewer spots available for this year‘s seniors.

Honestly, 2020 really messed with the class of 2021- not your fault but all the kids that deferred are preventing our class from having a fair shot. Such is life!

This year's seniors got a raw deal. A perfect storm of issues colliding during their on-time shot at college. I really feel for this class.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DD got in to an Ivy off a wait-list last year. Hope that offers hope.

Congratulations to your DD! But this year is completely different than last year. In fact, it’s because so many seniors deferred last year that there were spots open for colleges to fill from their waitlists then and fewer spots available for this year‘s seniors.

Honestly, 2020 really messed with the class of 2021- not your fault but all the kids that deferred are preventing our class from having a fair shot. Such is life!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If my kid has to wait until summer to find out, he’s going to lose his mind. He assumed he would hear shortly after May 3rd if any of the waitlists are going to move.

I can’t imagine they would move at the Ivys or next tier schools anyway.

Why do you think the Ivys won't move? Not disagreeing necessarily, but curious. I ask because applications at all Ivys are way up (presumably more kids applied to all Ivys this year). I'd expect that alone might lead to more waitlist movement. Full disclosure, could be wishful thinking on my part as my kid waits.

Not to mention the kids who are admitted to multiple Ivies -- they can only go to one and have to reject the others. Add to that the donut hole kids who get in but have to full pay and decide to take a full scholarship elsewhere.

Because all the schools admit more than the number they hope will enroll, knowing that some will accept other places. It’s not like they have 900 spots and they admit 900 kids and if 50 go elsewhere they suddenly have 50 spots to fill with WL kids.

They will only take off the WL if they miscalculated the number of people from their admits that they think will say yes. And I think they probably did a pretty decent job, even with all that’s going on.

Except the Ga Tech AD and other have given interviews saying they have no idea about yield this year and are going to undershoot and don’t be surprised if there is waitlist movement.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DD got in to an Ivy off a wait-list last year. Hope that offers hope.

Congratulations to your DD! But this year is completely different than last year. In fact, it’s because so many seniors deferred last year that there were spots open for colleges to fill from their waitlists then and fewer spots available for this year‘s seniors.

Yes, and fewer international students could accept spots last year, as well. Altogether, "Ironically, higher education’s nightmare could turn out to be a dream scenario for the Class of 2024 and their parents who now have more leverage than ever"

(https://www.forbes.com/sites/schifrin/2020/03/22/coronavirus-silver-lining-easier-to-get-into-many-top-colleges/?sh=6731adb65930)

Anonymous wrote:DD got in to an Ivy off a wait-list last year. Hope that offers hope.

Congratulations to your DD! But this year is completely different than last year. In fact, it’s because so many seniors deferred last year that there were spots open for colleges to fill from their waitlists then and fewer spots available for this year‘s seniors.

DD got in to an Ivy off a wait-list last year. Hope that offers hope.

I think you are right. The waitlists will only move at lower ranked schools where kids did have multiple acceptances.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My DC was admitted to one Ivy and waitlisted at a few others. Just out of curiosity, I ran the numbers on the schools he was waitlisted at, taking into consideration the number of ED/REA admits, RD offers made, past RD yield (using the lowest recent rates), target class size, and deferrals from last year. Based on this data, all the waitlist schools will be oversubscribed by 100+ spots (in some cases, 200+), so highly unlikely to go to the waitlist.

NP. Perhaps that indeed will be the case, though it's unclear how similar RD yield this year will be to past years. That's the big unknown, in my opinion.

But how many kids are sitting on multiple acceptances to Ivies and Ivy-equivalent schools and trying to decide which one to accept? Especially this year, when many highly qualified students were shut out of this level completely. Most kids that have one acceptance are probably thanking their lucky stars, and any kid that did have multiple Ivy acceptances and will be turning some down probably has a hook or something that makes them more attractive to the schools than the average excellent high-achieving kid from the DMV. I think it's unlikely the spot that opens up from the accepted kid turning down an Ivy is going to go to an unhooked kid from around here. My guess is most of the waitlist movement that has been predicted is going to happen at levels below the Ivy+. But I hope I'm wrong!

Anonymous wrote:My DC was admitted to one Ivy and waitlisted at a few others. Just out of curiosity, I ran the numbers on the schools he was waitlisted at, taking into consideration the number of ED/REA admits, RD offers made, past RD yield (using the lowest recent rates), target class size, and deferrals from last year. Based on this data, all the waitlist schools will be oversubscribed by 100+ spots (in some cases, 200+), so highly unlikely to go to the waitlist.

NP. Perhaps that indeed will be the case, though it's unclear how similar RD yield this year will be to past years. That's the big unknown, in my opinion.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If my kid has to wait until summer to find out, he’s going to lose his mind. He assumed he would hear shortly after May 3rd if any of the waitlists are going to move.

I can’t imagine they would move at the Ivys or next tier schools anyway.

Why do you think the Ivys won't move? Not disagreeing necessarily, but curious. I ask because applications at all Ivys are way up (presumably more kids applied to all Ivys this year). I'd expect that alone might lead to more waitlist movement. Full disclosure, could be wishful thinking on my part as my kid waits.

Not to mention the kids who are admitted to multiple Ivies -- they can only go to one and have to reject the others. Add to that the donut hole kids who get in but have to full pay and decide to take a full scholarship elsewhere.

Because all the schools admit more than the number they hope will enroll, knowing that some will accept other places. It’s not like they have 900 spots and they admit 900 kids and if 50 go elsewhere they suddenly have 50 spots to fill with WL kids.

They will only take off the WL if they miscalculated the number of people from their admits that they think will say yes. And I think they probably did a pretty decent job, even with all that’s going on.

My DC was admitted to one Ivy and waitlisted at a few others. Just out of curiosity, I ran the numbers on the schools he was waitlisted at, taking into consideration the number of ED/REA admits, RD offers made, past RD yield (using the lowest recent rates), target class size, and deferrals from last year. Based on this data, all the waitlist schools will be oversubscribed by 100+ spots (in some cases, 200+), so highly unlikely to go to the waitlist.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If my kid has to wait until summer to find out, he’s going to lose his mind. He assumed he would hear shortly after May 3rd if any of the waitlists are going to move.

I can’t imagine they would move at the Ivys or next tier schools anyway.

Why do you think the Ivys won't move? Not disagreeing necessarily, but curious. I ask because applications at all Ivys are way up (presumably more kids applied to all Ivys this year). I'd expect that alone might lead to more waitlist movement. Full disclosure, could be wishful thinking on my part as my kid waits.

Not to mention the kids who are admitted to multiple Ivies -- they can only go to one and have to reject the others. Add to that the donut hole kids who get in but have to full pay and decide to take a full scholarship elsewhere.

Because all the schools admit more than the number they hope will enroll, knowing that some will accept other places. It’s not like they have 900 spots and they admit 900 kids and if 50 go elsewhere they suddenly have 50 spots to fill with WL kids.

They will only take off the WL if they miscalculated the number of people from their admits that they think will say yes. And I think they probably did a pretty decent job, even with all that’s going on.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wish we had some sense of which schools already know they aren’t going to use their waitlists. I think my DS would rather have an outright rejection than false hope at this point.

Completely agree - the waiting and not knowing is so hard on these kids.

Ask your college counselor to make a call and find out. They do this all the time. The colleges will tell them how things are looking or that they won’t know until after 5/1.

This, I'm actually wondering whether wait lists are actually "moving" or if these kids are getting pulled from the list due to the counselors' efforts.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If my kid has to wait until summer to find out, he’s going to lose his mind. He assumed he would hear shortly after May 3rd if any of the waitlists are going to move.

I can’t imagine they would move at the Ivys or next tier schools anyway.

Why do you think the Ivys won't move? Not disagreeing necessarily, but curious. I ask because applications at all Ivys are way up (presumably more kids applied to all Ivys this year). I'd expect that alone might lead to more waitlist movement. Full disclosure, could be wishful thinking on my part as my kid waits.

Not to mention the kids who are admitted to multiple Ivies -- they can only go to one and have to reject the others. Add to that the donut hole kids who get in but have to full pay and decide to take a full scholarship elsewhere.

Anonymous wrote:If my kid has to wait until summer to find out, he’s going to lose his mind. He assumed he would hear shortly after May 3rd if any of the waitlists are going to move.

I can’t imagine they would move at the Ivys or next tier schools anyway.

Why do you think the Ivys won't move? Not disagreeing necessarily, but curious. I ask because applications at all Ivys are way up (presumably more kids applied to all Ivys this year). I'd expect that alone might lead to more waitlist movement. Full disclosure, could be wishful thinking on my part as my kid waits.

If my kid has to wait until summer to find out, he’s going to lose his mind. He assumed he would hear shortly after May 3rd if any of the waitlists are going to move.

I can’t imagine they would move at the Ivys or next tier schools anyway.