I am guessing that ol' UF likes to collect some of the 2X that comes with out of state tuition so the selectivity may not be quite the same

I wouldn't automatically assume UF is a safety. Even for high performing Florida residents UF can be tough to get into. The top kids at every high school, both private and public, apply to UF.

Almost all of our Florida students that apply to UF are tops in their high schools and have college tuition paid for under Bright Futures. Our State of Florida lottery funds Bright Futures.

FSU is generally considered a safety.