Anonymous
Post 06/09/2020 11:05     Subject: When do you think school will be back to normal?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:WHO now says asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is "very rare."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain


They will be open inperson on September 1. Full normality second half of the year. This news is huge.


The news actually makes zero difference. For one it is called into question by many experts. But even assuming it’s true, it’s not
Helpful. It says ASYMPTOMATIC cases rarely spread the disease- those are the cases we never hear about and are rarely counted for in our numbers. But this doesn’t effect what the CDC found just two weeks ago - that 40% of transmissions occur BEFORE symptoms, so not just talking about asymptomatics here. This is the critical factor that makes opening up schools (and other places) difficult. A huge percentage of transmissions occur before anyone even had a
Symptom - so screenings and focusing on quarantine the sick only is not going to be effective to prevent or sufficiently mitigate the spread.
Anonymous
Post 06/09/2020 10:00     Subject: When do you think school will be back to normal?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:WHO now says asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is "very rare."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain


They will be open inperson on September 1. Full normality second half of the year. This news is huge.


And yet cases are raising all over the country. Maybe by people that identified as having little or no symptoms. Now idk if they didn't recognize their own mild symptoms or not. But it is back on the raise and WHO said it would likely die down for summer. So, not putting a lot of weight in this new idea. They also gave no context for "rare" 1 in 5, 1 in 10, 1 in 100 all very different .


This certainly seems like a stronger argument to me.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-health-202/2020/06/09/the-health-202-who-says-asymptomatic-people-usually-don-t-spread-coronavirus-experts-doubt-that/5ede874a88e0fa32f82355d4/


^
But key experts in the United States say the WHO's conclusion presents some big problems. 
It's not that asymptomatic people don’t spread the virus — but that contact tracing is simply bad at detecting it, they argue. The studies cited by WHO relied on only a small number of people in China who claimed to have gotten sick from someone who had symptoms – which is not exactly a rigorous scientific experiment. -Washington Post
Anonymous
Post 06/09/2020 09:58     Subject: When do you think school will be back to normal?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:WHO now says asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is "very rare."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain


They will be open inperson on September 1. Full normality second half of the year. This news is huge.


And yet cases are raising all over the country. Maybe by people that identified as having little or no symptoms. Now idk if they didn't recognize their own mild symptoms or not. But it is back on the raise and WHO said it would likely die down for summer. So, not putting a lot of weight in this new idea. They also gave no context for "rare" 1 in 5, 1 in 10, 1 in 100 all very different .


Unfortunately based on the epidemiologist I heard share info on this, this news isn't as "huge" as it seems. There is a difference between PRE-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Asymptomatic cases may not spread it as much, but there is evidence that people do spread it when PRE-symptomatic which is more the concern and why it's been harder to keep in control of. so pre-symptomatic is the few days before someone becomes symptomatic. So that is still a concern and not solved.
Anonymous
Post 06/09/2020 09:45     Subject: When do you think school will be back to normal?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:WHO now says asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is "very rare."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain


They will be open inperson on September 1. Full normality second half of the year. This news is huge.


And yet cases are raising all over the country. Maybe by people that identified as having little or no symptoms. Now idk if they didn't recognize their own mild symptoms or not. But it is back on the raise and WHO said it would likely die down for summer. So, not putting a lot of weight in this new idea. They also gave no context for "rare" 1 in 5, 1 in 10, 1 in 100 all very different .


This certainly seems like a stronger argument to me.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-health-202/2020/06/09/the-health-202-who-says-asymptomatic-people-usually-don-t-spread-coronavirus-experts-doubt-that/5ede874a88e0fa32f82355d4/

Anonymous
Post 06/09/2020 09:34     Subject: Re:When do you think school will be back to normal?
Anonymous wrote:What coronavirus? That’s old. The American public has forgotten about that!! Americans have short memories. Even if you watch the news, CV doesn’t come up until 15 minutes after the start. Americans are getting out, back to work and making money. There are no more daily news conferences- VA, MD, Trump/Fauci/Birx, and has Bowser had a CV update lately?? I predict you’ll start seeing stories of less transmission and more recovery rates (with evidence based on recent protests), phases of reopening occurring and all will be forgotten by Fall. Once sports get back started and TV Is live again, you will hear jokes about remembering CV. All of these plastic shields, 6 foot barrier and masks required signs will disappear too! I’m not saying that CV is gone away but reporting and it’s coverage will change really soon. Kids will be in school in September maybe October at the latest but life has to go on. [/quote

I agree this is what is happening right now, but I'm not convinced that it isn't going to lead to a serious increase in cases. If death rates go way up, I do think people will notice it again.
Anonymous
Post 06/09/2020 08:40     Subject: Re:When do you think school will be back to normal?
What coronavirus? That’s old. The American public has forgotten about that!! Americans have short memories. Even if you watch the news, CV doesn’t come up until 15 minutes after the start. Americans are getting out, back to work and making money. There are no more daily news conferences- VA, MD, Trump/Fauci/Birx, and has Bowser had a CV update lately?? I predict you’ll start seeing stories of less transmission and more recovery rates (with evidence based on recent protests), phases of reopening occurring and all will be forgotten by Fall. Once sports get back started and TV Is live again, you will hear jokes about remembering CV. All of these plastic shields, 6 foot barrier and masks required signs will disappear too! I’m not saying that CV is gone away but reporting and it’s coverage will change really soon. Kids will be in school in September maybe October at the latest but life has to go on.
Anonymous
Post 06/09/2020 08:21     Subject: When do you think school will be back to normal?
Anonymous wrote:Cases rising doesn’t really matter. Cases are going to rise forever until we get a vaccine. The important numbers are the hospitalization and death rate.


+1
Anonymous
Post 06/09/2020 08:19     Subject: When do you think school will be back to normal?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I am in the fall 2021 camp. And I am not a pessimistic person by nature. But I honestly don’t see anyone prioritizing the needs of children in this environment. The teachers interests will remain paramount within school systems, and the economic interests of returning kids to school are indirect for other govern,ent leaders. Until we have a vaccine that has made it into wide circulation, my expectation is that school won’t be normal.


Sadly I think this is true. We live in a gerontocracy.


What was prioritized are health care workers and hospitals. The shutdowns were about flattening the curve of cases, so hospitals wouldn’t be overwhelmed. In the appropriate rush to equip them with PPE, few thought about nursing homes, contributing to the mortality for people who love and work there.

We still don’t know much about this virus. It is novel. But the shutdowns did prevent infections.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/08/shutdowns-prevented-60-million-coronavirus-infections-us-study-finds/


Yes, that was the rationale for the initial shutdown, and it was sensible (although it is unclear whether schools had to be part of it). I don't think the desire to keep schools closed beyond the summer is still driven by this objective, because hospitals are not currently on a trajectory to getting overwhelmed like they were only in NYC. It is driven by fear for the potential risk for the elderly (or otherwise at-risk staff) and elderly family members of the kids, and it is being pushed for despite mounting evidence that kids (who remain largely asymptomatic) are not significant spreaders.
Anonymous
Post 06/09/2020 08:14     Subject: Re:When do you think school will be back to normal?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:In about two weeks, one of two things is going to happen:

1. A huge number of protesters will be in the hospital with COVID-19

or

2. There won't be a huge number of protests in the hospital with COVID-19, and social distancing will quickly end for everyone but the elderly and people with issues with their immune systems.

And then we will have a much better idea of whether schools will be open in the fall.


Please, please let it be scenario 2. The economic strain, the ever widening of the achievement gap, and the socioemotional damage that is being every day we keep public schools closed or on a rotating schedule cannot be overstated. The idea that getting kids back at school every day is not the number 1 priority of reopening is complexly beyond me. I can do a year without going to a restaurant. A year with my kid “remote learning” or at best on a rotating schedule? Not do much. And the families for whom this will be a matter of keeping their home or getting food on the table when they are forced with the challenge of keeping a job or leaving their kids alone all day? Not every job can be done remotely. And not everyone has the privilege to decide whether to keep their job and hire a babysitter or stay at home.



Wouldn't it be amazing if we had government programs to support people, families and small business during this time.. then we wouldn't need to be placing our children, family and community members lives on a scale against earning money during this pandemic.
Super spreader or not kids are also getting sick and dieing.


Wouldn't it be amazing if we prioritized our kids and considered their education essential. The idea that we need to keep schools closed to protect the kids from the virus is ludicrous. They are getting sick and dying from this at much lower numbers than the annual flu. Opening schools is not just about earning money.
Anonymous
Post 06/09/2020 07:14     Subject: When do you think school will be back to normal?
Cases rising doesn’t really matter. Cases are going to rise forever until we get a vaccine. The important numbers are the hospitalization and death rate.
Anonymous
Post 06/09/2020 07:03     Subject: When do you think school will be back to normal?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I am in the fall 2021 camp. And I am not a pessimistic person by nature. But I honestly don’t see anyone prioritizing the needs of children in this environment. The teachers interests will remain paramount within school systems, and the economic interests of returning kids to school are indirect for other govern,ent leaders. Until we have a vaccine that has made it into wide circulation, my expectation is that school won’t be normal.


Sadly I think this is true. We live in a gerontocracy.


What was prioritized are health care workers and hospitals. The shutdowns were about flattening the curve of cases, so hospitals wouldn’t be overwhelmed. In the appropriate rush to equip them with PPE, few thought about nursing homes, contributing to the mortality for people who love and work there.

We still don’t know much about this virus. It is novel. But the shutdowns did prevent infections.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/08/shutdowns-prevented-60-million-coronavirus-infections-us-study-finds/
Anonymous
Post 06/09/2020 06:03     Subject: When do you think school will be back to normal?
My class size is under 10! 6 kids, 2 para educators, & 1 me!

We will be back 8/31!!!!
Anonymous
Post 06/08/2020 23:21     Subject: Re:When do you think school will be back to normal?
Anonymous wrote:In about two weeks, one of two things is going to happen:

1. A huge number of protesters will be in the hospital with COVID-19

or

2. There won't be a huge number of protests in the hospital with COVID-19, and social distancing will quickly end for everyone but the elderly and people with issues with their immune systems.

And then we will have a much better idea of whether schools will be open in the fall.


The visible spike in cases won't be from the protesters. It will be from the people, older than the protesters, and in greater number than the infected protesters, that the protesters infect, et coetera.
Anonymous
Post 06/08/2020 23:20     Subject: Re:When do you think school will be back to normal?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:In about two weeks, one of two things is going to happen:

1. A huge number of protesters will be in the hospital with COVID-19

or

2. There won't be a huge number of protests in the hospital with COVID-19, and social distancing will quickly end for everyone but the elderly and people with issues with their immune systems.

And then we will have a much better idea of whether schools will be open in the fall.


Please, please let it be scenario 2. The economic strain, the ever widening of the achievement gap, and the socioemotional damage that is being every day we keep public schools closed or on a rotating schedule cannot be overstated. The idea that getting kids back at school every day is not the number 1 priority of reopening is complexly beyond me. I can do a year without going to a restaurant. A year with my kid “remote learning” or at best on a rotating schedule? Not do much. And the families for whom this will be a matter of keeping their home or getting food on the table when they are forced with the challenge of keeping a job or leaving their kids alone all day? Not every job can be done remotely. And not everyone has the privilege to decide whether to keep their job and hire a babysitter or stay at home.



Wouldn't it be amazing if we had government programs to support people, families and small business during this time.. then we wouldn't need to be placing our children, family and community members lives on a scale against earning money during this pandemic.
Super spreader or not kids are also getting sick and dieing.
Anonymous
Post 06/08/2020 23:11     Subject: When do you think school will be back to normal?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:WHO now says asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is "very rare."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain


They will be open inperson on September 1. Full normality second half of the year. This news is huge.


And yet cases are raising all over the country. Maybe by people that identified as having little or no symptoms. Now idk if they didn't recognize their own mild symptoms or not. But it is back on the raise and WHO said it would likely die down for summer. So, not putting a lot of weight in this new idea. They also gave no context for "rare" 1 in 5, 1 in 10, 1 in 100 all very different .