Anonymous wrote:I think the fall discussion is fun; however, most of the clubs in the area haven’t even bothered to say anything about this past spring. All I’ve heard is maybe we’ll play in the summer. Pretty certain I didn’t sign up for summer soccer....

Is it safe to assume, if clubs in your area are giving back refunds or credits, that spring season is not happening?

Anonymous wrote:The new projections are not look good. It’s looking like this will still be going strong into the fall. I think they will open things up but not youth sports.

+100

I think the fall discussion is fun; however, most of the clubs in the area haven’t even bothered to say anything about this past spring. All I’ve heard is maybe we’ll play in the summer. Pretty certain I didn’t sign up for summer soccer....

Anonymous wrote:no one really knows what the status will be in the fall.

I really think people will need to alter their "goalposts" at what they logically think will be the numbers/trends need to be to feel "right"

We look at the numbers now and in Maryland new cases have trended down over the last 5 days- 1730-1001-989-946-709. It wont keep going down. It has been bouncing between 700-1000 for the last 3 or 4 weeks. Total beds has plataeued- ICU beds are trending down. But whats the number to hit before people feel ok? becasue it wont be zero for a LONG TIME.

100 new cases per day for the entire state? 400? 8 weeks from now 700 new cases each day may be the norm under phase 3 restrictions. We dont know at this time.
Its not lost on me that we have these current numbers under stay at home order and tighter restrictions- but honestly, we cant go on like this forever if we have plateaued at the current numbers and this is the lowest we can go with the current regulations put in place.

well said

no one really knows what the status will be in the fall.

I really think people will need to alter their "goalposts" at what they logically think will be the numbers/trends need to be to feel "right"

We look at the numbers now and in Maryland new cases have trended down over the last 5 days- 1730-1001-989-946-709. It wont keep going down. It has been bouncing between 700-1000 for the last 3 or 4 weeks. Total beds has plataeued- ICU beds are trending down. But whats the number to hit before people feel ok? becasue it wont be zero for a LONG TIME.

100 new cases per day for the entire state? 400? 8 weeks from now 700 new cases each day may be the norm under phase 3 restrictions. We dont know at this time.
Its not lost on me that we have these current numbers under stay at home order and tighter restrictions- but honestly, we cant go on like this forever if we have plateaued at the current numbers and this is the lowest we can go with the current regulations put in place.

Anonymous wrote:Yep, it looks like the fall season is highly unlikely. It is interesting that the clubs that have extended offers for the next year generally did not offer any refund mechanism if the fall season is cancelled.

I would sign up if it weren't for that clause being left out.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The new projections are not look good. It’s looking like this will still be going strong into the fall. I think they will open things up but not youth sports.

This is unsupported.

What is "this" If "this" is coronavirus.... of course it will be going in fall. its here to stay. thats never been the question. but I do agree that it may increase in the fall.

What projections are you referring to? Deaths will continue, this is inevitable. More positives will come- yes because they are increasing testing. The goal is for the overall daily/ weekly trend to plateau or decrease.

Now in regards to youth sports-- who knows..thats the million dollar question.

Models Project Sharp Rise in Deaths as States Reopen
An internal Trump administration report expects about 200,000 daily cases by June. The White House bars coronavirus task force officials from testifying to Congress without approval.
As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks. The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, a 70 percent increase from the current number of about 1,750.
The projections, based on government modeling pulled together by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-live-updates.html

An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House is now forecasting that 134,000 people will die of Covid-19 in the United States, nearly double its previous prediction.

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, had predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning.
Relatedly, a Trump administration model projects a rise in coronavirus cases and deaths in the weeks ahead, up to about 3,000 daily deaths in the US by June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times. Over the past week, about 2,000 people died daily in the US, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html

The new projections reflect the opening up of states. These models do not reflect more testing, many states have reduced testing because they are having problems assembling everything needed for a test. With just some of the less hard hit states opening the death projections have double. They estimate the US is at 5-15% exposure and we need to get to 60-70% to slow the virus. I was thinking things would start to get back to normal in June but now I do not. I do not see youth sports starting till the spring.

ok i understand. I was moresoe looking at maryland ( with increased testing, etc) but I have seen the latest reports with the US deaths as a whole upticking.

Yep, it looks like the fall season is highly unlikely. It is interesting that the clubs that have extended offers for the next year generally did not offer any refund mechanism if the fall season is cancelled.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The new projections are not look good. It’s looking like this will still be going strong into the fall. I think they will open things up but not youth sports.

This is unsupported.

What is "this" If "this" is coronavirus.... of course it will be going in fall. its here to stay. thats never been the question. but I do agree that it may increase in the fall.

What projections are you referring to? Deaths will continue, this is inevitable. More positives will come- yes because they are increasing testing. The goal is for the overall daily/ weekly trend to plateau or decrease.

Now in regards to youth sports-- who knows..thats the million dollar question.

Models Project Sharp Rise in Deaths as States Reopen
An internal Trump administration report expects about 200,000 daily cases by June. The White House bars coronavirus task force officials from testifying to Congress without approval.
As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks. The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, a 70 percent increase from the current number of about 1,750.
The projections, based on government modeling pulled together by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-live-updates.html

An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House is now forecasting that 134,000 people will die of Covid-19 in the United States, nearly double its previous prediction.

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, had predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning.
Relatedly, a Trump administration model projects a rise in coronavirus cases and deaths in the weeks ahead, up to about 3,000 daily deaths in the US by June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times. Over the past week, about 2,000 people died daily in the US, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html

The new projections reflect the opening up of states. These models do not reflect more testing, many states have reduced testing because they are having problems assembling everything needed for a test. With just some of the less hard hit states opening the death projections have double. They estimate the US is at 5-15% exposure and we need to get to 60-70% to slow the virus. I was thinking things would start to get back to normal in June but now I do not. I do not see youth sports starting till the spring.

As it is stated “ALL PHASES”. The US will be in phases until a vaccine has been found.

CAN YOUTH SOCCER FOLLOW the MLS and NWSL protocol? Youth sports guidelines should have no leniency and should be strictly obeyed. Any club or coach not obeying should be fined?


The following principles apply to all phases of the league’s return to play protocol:

•All activity must follow government, state, and local mandates
•Each team must have approval from their medical staff to advance to the next phase
•Teams should limit staff to the essential personnel necessary to conduct each phase of training and competition
•Players will undergo a daily symptom screening prior to entering team facilities
•Players who are fulfilling self-quarantine for any reason are not permitted to train with other individuals or at team facilities
•Players, coaches and staff who are sick or have close contact with individuals who are sick must inform the team’s Certified •Athletic Trainer, stay home, and not participate in training
•All individuals should practice good hand hygiene, and avoid touching their face, nose and eyes with their hands as much as possible
•Clubs will thoroughly clean and disinfect all commonly touched surfaces daily


The league-wide moratorium on full team training remains in place through, and including, Friday, May 15

Anonymous wrote:The new projections are not look good. It’s looking like this will still be going strong into the fall. I think they will open things up but not youth sports.

This is unsupported.

What is "this" If "this" is coronavirus.... of course it will be going in fall. its here to stay. thats never been the question. but I do agree that it may increase in the fall.

What projections are you referring to? Deaths will continue, this is inevitable. More positives will come- yes because they are increasing testing. The goal is for the overall daily/ weekly trend to plateau or decrease.

Now in regards to youth sports-- who knows..thats the million dollar question.

MD plan is not based on cases but other metrics - deaths, ICU, hospitalizations.

https://governor.maryland.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/MD_Strong.pdf

https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

Data with trend graphs on key metrics

Last Hogan press conference - go to questions where he address trends and would he stop the clock.

https://twitter.com/govlarryhogan/status/1255573440368705537?s=21

Expect another press conference this week to address. Maybe plans change but that’s where we are on plan for MD

The new projections are not look good. It’s looking like this will still be going strong into the fall. I think they will open things up but not youth sports.

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Considering clubs are discussing fall teams and some sending out offers, how likely is fall soccer with games? Are we paying for more zoom or techne to ultimately lose another refund? Our tennis club emailed that Hogan listed tennis in phase 1. Where is soccer listed in the phases? I found the plan but could not find those details.

you

Very! Count on it.

actually, not likely at all. Track soccer with full return of school. When the hallways of school can fill up again at full capacity, you will see youth soccer back in play!

Actually, it’s likely by June 15th at the latest in Maryland. Youth sports will be considered Stage II in Maryland. If stage 1 goes well, you can expect Stage 2 about three weeks later. I am speaking for Maryland. I predict Hogan will start Stage 1 by the end of this coming week.

LOL, haha just keep your head buried in the sand.

NP - Have you been listening to Hogan’s weekly press conferences and reading his reports. Go to conference this week and listen to him answer the reporters questions. A few in, you will hear what they are looking at opening up and he will address next week. Look at the numbers and see the trends - over time on key metrics He is looking at and also his response.

This was helpful. I was doubtful until this. Not a confirmation but he seems hopeful. Thanks.

Your welcome. FYI if you go to https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/ you can see key stats daily and trend graphs on key metrics for opening. You will see that the key metrics, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU has been decreasing for the past few days. Data is a bit irregular on weekends - but hope this continues for the sake of everyone. Also per the press conference, he is not looking for a complete straight line but overall trend - that is very common in data science fields. His hyper focus on nursing home population which had accounted for 50 percent of the deaths is also helpful.

We are long way from meeting the metrics for reopening based on these stats. For Maryland, there are 989 new cases in the last 24 hours and only 76 released from isolation (recovered) during the same period. This means that the number of sick people has increased by more than 900 people.

Link to the sources?