Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 07:48     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I feel like they can open up stores, etc. while the majority of people work from home. I work for a massive company that has one (or more) offices in every state and I would wager that 90% of us can easily work from home, the other 10% can limit their time in the office or easily social distance while there due to the fact that many others can WFH.


Go ahead and open the stores and restaurants but they will still suffer. It's going to be a while before traffic is more than 25% of normal.


This may be a dumb question as I have no experience running a store or restaurant, but wouldn't bringing in some income be better than none? And even if they're not able to re-hire everyone, some people would be employed?


It’s not safe for the workers. Sure it’s better for the owners and landlords but the workers would be better off on unemployment so they can stay home and be safe. Don’t order from restaurants right now.


And because of the exponential nature of this disease's spread, 3 infected workers turn into 10 infected family members, and by a month you have a few hundred cases and a few deaths.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 07:46     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:Nothing is opening up anytime soon. My dh’s federal building just finally closed to everyone this week, and those who were in the office last week are currently quarantined because someone who was there just tested positive.

How on earth are they talking about opening up when things are still shutting down and 2,000 people in the US are dying each day? It’s too soon.


People who clamoring to flip the switch don’t know the science and they have not been up close and personal with COVID-19. Their attitude will change.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 07:42     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Nothing is opening up anytime soon. My dh’s federal building just finally closed to everyone this week, and those who were in the office last week are currently quarantined because someone who was there just tested positive.

How on earth are they talking about opening up when things are still shutting down and 2,000 people in the US are dying each day? It’s too soon.


The daily deaths lag behind by a week or two. Not the number to look at for this decision.


Is ICU admittance the number to look at? Because surely the number of positive tests means nothing.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 07:42     Subject: Re:So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Stay at home
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 07:41     Subject: Re:So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:I have a background n data analytics, modeling and actuarial science. so I've been tracking the data (cases, deaths, hospitalizations, testing) daily for the DMV - Maryland (state, county / zip level), DC, and VA (state, county). I don't profess to be an expert in this field at all - but I just like to see the trends myself and not rely on the local reporting

I can see why Hogan is saying signs to be cautiously optimistic - there are some positive trends compared to the early high rates of growth - but we are not in a downward trend overall So the 14 day clock for phase 1 can't start. IMHE predicts peak in a few days for MD- hope they are right; they have tended to be right on peak time; even if off on hospital resources. I'm not sure that Hogan uses that model - but he has the hopkins team. (Note: IMHE updates every few days).

VA data is more messy on reporting, but still no downward trend. Their IMHE predicted peak is still 11+ days off. DC no downward trend. Bowser press conference did not use the IMHE model and has a much later peak than IMHE. those are all projections anyway. The data has to show a consistent downward trend for 14 days - which make rational sense as you can't tell you had a peak until a few days post it and you don't want another wave to resurge.

One of the questions - unknown -if a state in the DMV is ready to open early, will they still do so given other peaks around them. i.e, Will Maryland fully open if DC and VA are still climbing?





Thanks for this. I thought I heard somewhere that the general pattern people are looking at for gradual reopening is once there have been 10 straight days of downward trends – I don’t know if that means cases or deaths. Thoughts on that?

I do think the states are operating somewhat independently. Obviously the federal government is a huge factor in terms of workforce. But I think as far as businesses and schools are going they are not necessarily all trending the same.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 07:40     Subject: Re:So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Stay at home
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 07:39     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Nothing is opening up anytime soon. My dh’s federal building just finally closed to everyone this week, and those who were in the office last week are currently quarantined because someone who was there just tested positive.

How on earth are they talking about opening up when things are still shutting down and 2,000 people in the US are dying each day? It’s too soon.


The daily deaths lag behind by a week or two. Not the number to look at for this decision.


+1 You look at multiple factors - increase in cases (though case numbers are prob the least accurate) rate of testing, positive rates on testing, increase in hospitalizations, as well as deaths. You look at it in a geogrpahic area as a percent of population. Those in public health have more detailed numbers so they can see more data and know the lead / lag times. As they understand the disease better - and - the reporting is better - they can probably model it better with more factors

This type of analysis isn't unique to the US. European countries are doing the same. And you really need to look at it state by state. Its similar to Europe - no one is screaming that the entire continent has to wait to the same time to open up (that said crossing borders is an issue compared to the US and crossing state borders).
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 07:35     Subject: Re:So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:I have a background n data analytics, modeling and actuarial science. so I've been tracking the data (cases, deaths, hospitalizations, testing) daily for the DMV - Maryland (state, county / zip level), DC, and VA (state, county). I don't profess to be an expert in this field at all - but I just like to see the trends myself and not rely on the local reporting

I can see why Hogan is saying signs to be cautiously optimistic - there are some positive trends compared to the early high rates of growth - but we are not in a downward trend overall So the 14 day clock for phase 1 can't start. IMHE predicts peak in a few days for MD- hope they are right; they have tended to be right on peak time; even if off on hospital resources. I'm not sure that Hogan uses that model - but he has the hopkins team. (Note: IMHE updates every few days).

VA data is more messy on reporting, but still no downward trend. Their IMHE predicted peak is still 11+ days off. DC no downward trend. Bowser press conference did not use the IMHE model and has a much later peak than IMHE. those are all projections anyway. The data has to show a consistent downward trend for 14 days - which make rational sense as you can't tell you had a peak until a few days post it and you don't want another wave to resurge.

One of the questions - unknown -if a state in the DMV is ready to open early, will they still do so given other peaks around them. i.e, Will Maryland fully open if DC and VA are still climbing?




Maryland, Virginia, and DC will form a regional plan, much like other states in the area have done. So many commuters cross the Potomac, it would be impossible for one state to open back up without being impacted by the adjacent state's surge (unless the surge were happening far outside the DMV metro area.)
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 07:34     Subject: Re:So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
The evidence is mixed, at very best, but I feel like some around Trump must have convinced him that warmer weather will help. So, expect phase one in June. It’ll be ok for three weeks or so. Then everyone back to the bunker as the virus mutates and says, in effect, I’m back!
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 07:09     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:Nothing is opening up anytime soon. My dh’s federal building just finally closed to everyone this week, and those who were in the office last week are currently quarantined because someone who was there just tested positive.

How on earth are they talking about opening up when things are still shutting down and 2,000 people in the US are dying each day? It’s too soon.


The daily deaths lag behind by a week or two. Not the number to look at for this decision.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 07:02     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:They still can’t even form a plan to get people cloth facemasks ... as long as they are still expecting people to tie t-shirts around their faces, I’m not going to have much faith in anything happening.


What do you mean “form a plan to get people cloth face masks”?
Go online and order a face mask if you want one. Who exactly is supposed to knock on your front door with one. They are available hundreds of places online. Order them.


+1 seriously!!


+2 who is “they?” Do you expect the Govt to drop one off?
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 07:00     Subject: Re:So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
I have a background n data analytics, modeling and actuarial science. so I've been tracking the data (cases, deaths, hospitalizations, testing) daily for the DMV - Maryland (state, county / zip level), DC, and VA (state, county). I don't profess to be an expert in this field at all - but I just like to see the trends myself and not rely on the local reporting

I can see why Hogan is saying signs to be cautiously optimistic - there are some positive trends compared to the early high rates of growth - but we are not in a downward trend overall So the 14 day clock for phase 1 can't start. IMHE predicts peak in a few days for MD- hope they are right; they have tended to be right on peak time; even if off on hospital resources. I'm not sure that Hogan uses that model - but he has the hopkins team. (Note: IMHE updates every few days).

VA data is more messy on reporting, but still no downward trend. Their IMHE predicted peak is still 11+ days off. DC no downward trend. Bowser press conference did not use the IMHE model and has a much later peak than IMHE. those are all projections anyway. The data has to show a consistent downward trend for 14 days - which make rational sense as you can't tell you had a peak until a few days post it and you don't want another wave to resurge.

One of the questions - unknown -if a state in the DMV is ready to open early, will they still do so given other peaks around them. i.e, Will Maryland fully open if DC and VA are still climbing?



Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 01:40     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
When there’s so much toilet paper it’s 50% off
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 01:27     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I feel like they can open up stores, etc. while the majority of people work from home. I work for a massive company that has one (or more) offices in every state and I would wager that 90% of us can easily work from home, the other 10% can limit their time in the office or easily social distance while there due to the fact that many others can WFH.


Go ahead and open the stores and restaurants but they will still suffer. It's going to be a while before traffic is more than 25% of normal.


THIS. Until consumers feel safe this economy remains in neutral or first gear.


Yes. Who would go to any of those places just because it is opened. Do you remember what happened before the restaurants were issued mandatory closures? There was zero people yet they were still free to move about.


Not true, I live near several restaurants and they still had packed happy hours well past the middle of March.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 01:07     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I feel like they can open up stores, etc. while the majority of people work from home. I work for a massive company that has one (or more) offices in every state and I would wager that 90% of us can easily work from home, the other 10% can limit their time in the office or easily social distance while there due to the fact that many others can WFH.


Go ahead and open the stores and restaurants but they will still suffer. It's going to be a while before traffic is more than 25% of normal.


THIS. Until consumers feel safe this economy remains in neutral or first gear.


Yes. Who would go to any of those places just because it is opened. Do you remember what happened before the restaurants were issued mandatory closures? There was zero people yet they were still free to move about.