Anonymous
Post 03/30/2020 13:01     Subject: Re:When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?
Anonymous wrote:Someone posted this on another thread, projections by state. I realize this is the entire state of VA, not just northern, but it projects peak for May 17th (as opposed to DC and Maryland which have projected peaks in mid-April):

http://www.healthdata.org/data-visualization/covid-19-us-state-state-projections



VA was slower than MD/DC is closing gyms, businesses, parks, restaurants.

I could see May as the peak. People are going to start seeing more positive cases in the next few weeks.

There are many people that don’t seem to grasp you can’t still have play dates, sleepovers, go in without gloves/mask grocery shopping and stand less than 6ft at all times. Run/walk/bike on crowded/packed trails.

We did a restaurant pick up once and I was horrified at how close people were standing waiting on the sidewalk to pick up their food. I haven’t done it since and we do all online grocery deliveries even though I live 2 blocks from two major grocery stores.

Anonymous
Post 03/30/2020 12:49     Subject: When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The good news is that northern Virginia might have done a good enough job with social distancing that we don't have the huge peak that NY is working up to. The bad news is that means we will have more of a long, steady low curve. Great for preventing the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Not great for any quick return to our normal lives.


+1

There is a thread on things escalating in Arlington hospitals, and I have not seen one about other NoVa jurisdictions. Makes sense given the difference in population density.


I have heard (on DCUM) that VHC is currently getting influx of patients.

Any other hospitals?


Is this a recent thread? I didn’t notice this.


VHC isn’t getting an influx....insider from VHC



Were I to get sick in NOVA I would go to Fairfax, best hospital in the area, excellent cardiac care. VHC is a good for what it is a simple community hospital. What are the stats at Fairfax.

How many do they have currently?
Anonymous
Post 03/30/2020 12:29     Subject: When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The good news is that northern Virginia might have done a good enough job with social distancing that we don't have the huge peak that NY is working up to. The bad news is that means we will have more of a long, steady low curve. Great for preventing the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Not great for any quick return to our normal lives.


+1

There is a thread on things escalating in Arlington hospitals, and I have not seen one about other NoVa jurisdictions. Makes sense given the difference in population density.


I have heard (on DCUM) that VHC is currently getting influx of patients.

Any other hospitals?


Is this a recent thread? I didn’t notice this.


VHC isn’t getting an influx....insider from VHC


Careful you'll upset the apocalypse crowd


The same crowd that is freaking out on the other thread that NO ONE in Arlington is following the rules, they're all breathing and sweating within inches of each other. Yet I live in Arlington and from my window can see a small park, 2 major streets, and 2 side streets. On weekdays there are literally never more than 6 people out -- 100s of ft from each other. On weekends when it's busy -- it'll be 20ish people out; all spread out around the block often moving in different directions and while they won't be 100s of ft away, they'll be 20 ft away. So I don't see how Arlington people are suddenly acting like NYCers who are out there having kids climb on jungle gyms as they do their chin ups on playground equipment.
Anonymous
Post 03/30/2020 12:23     Subject: Re:When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:What do you think the Gov is going to announce at 2pm? His FB is teasing big news.


Shutdown?

Huge uptick in cases?


I guess we are probably going to get stay at home orders like MD just got.
Anonymous
Post 03/30/2020 12:21     Subject: When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Every time I go (once/week) to the grocery store there is someone getting very close to me despite the lines marked on the floor. I keep a safe distance and go to the isles where there’s no one around. But as soon as I start grabbing items these people come to look at the items.


Yell at them.


May be just as dangerous, unless you’re yelling with a bandana or cloth mask on:

https://news.yahoo.com/choir-decided-ahead-rehearsal-now-023414705.html

We are still learning more everyday.
Anonymous
Post 03/30/2020 12:21     Subject: When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The good news is that northern Virginia might have done a good enough job with social distancing that we don't have the huge peak that NY is working up to. The bad news is that means we will have more of a long, steady low curve. Great for preventing the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Not great for any quick return to our normal lives.


+1

There is a thread on things escalating in Arlington hospitals, and I have not seen one about other NoVa jurisdictions. Makes sense given the difference in population density.


I have heard (on DCUM) that VHC is currently getting influx of patients.

Any other hospitals?


Is this a recent thread? I didn’t notice this.


VHC isn’t getting an influx....insider from VHC


Careful you'll upset the apocalypse crowd


It’s b/c people in Arlington try to go to GWU or Georgetown, and people in Fairfax go to Inova.
Anonymous
Post 03/30/2020 12:13     Subject: When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The good news is that northern Virginia might have done a good enough job with social distancing that we don't have the huge peak that NY is working up to. The bad news is that means we will have more of a long, steady low curve. Great for preventing the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Not great for any quick return to our normal lives.


+1

There is a thread on things escalating in Arlington hospitals, and I have not seen one about other NoVa jurisdictions. Makes sense given the difference in population density.


I have heard (on DCUM) that VHC is currently getting influx of patients.

Any other hospitals?


Is this a recent thread? I didn’t notice this.


VHC isn’t getting an influx....insider from VHC


Careful you'll upset the apocalypse crowd
Anonymous
Post 03/30/2020 12:12     Subject: When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The good news is that northern Virginia might have done a good enough job with social distancing that we don't have the huge peak that NY is working up to. The bad news is that means we will have more of a long, steady low curve. Great for preventing the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Not great for any quick return to our normal lives.


+1

There is a thread on things escalating in Arlington hospitals, and I have not seen one about other NoVa jurisdictions. Makes sense given the difference in population density.


I have heard (on DCUM) that VHC is currently getting influx of patients.

Any other hospitals?


Is this a recent thread? I didn’t notice this.


VHC isn’t getting an influx....insider from VHC


How many do they have currently?
Anonymous
Post 03/30/2020 12:06     Subject: When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The good news is that northern Virginia might have done a good enough job with social distancing that we don't have the huge peak that NY is working up to. The bad news is that means we will have more of a long, steady low curve. Great for preventing the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Not great for any quick return to our normal lives.


+1

There is a thread on things escalating in Arlington hospitals, and I have not seen one about other NoVa jurisdictions. Makes sense given the difference in population density.


I have heard (on DCUM) that VHC is currently getting influx of patients.

Any other hospitals?


Is this a recent thread? I didn’t notice this.



But but but Italy!?
VHC isn’t getting an influx....insider from VHC
Anonymous
Post 03/30/2020 12:02     Subject: When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The good news is that northern Virginia might have done a good enough job with social distancing that we don't have the huge peak that NY is working up to. The bad news is that means we will have more of a long, steady low curve. Great for preventing the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Not great for any quick return to our normal lives.


+1

There is a thread on things escalating in Arlington hospitals, and I have not seen one about other NoVa jurisdictions. Makes sense given the difference in population density.


I have heard (on DCUM) that VHC is currently getting influx of patients.

Any other hospitals?


Is this a recent thread? I didn’t notice this.


VHC isn’t getting an influx....insider from VHC
Anonymous
Post 03/30/2020 11:57     Subject: Re:When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?
Anonymous wrote:What do you think the Gov is going to announce at 2pm? His FB is teasing big news.


Shutdown?

Huge uptick in cases?
Anonymous
Post 03/30/2020 11:46     Subject: Re:When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?
See link to University of Washington simulation/forecast model by state.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Use DC forecast as proxy for NOVA timeline. April 18 is peak load for DC.
Anonymous
Post 03/30/2020 11:33     Subject: Re:When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?
What do you think the Gov is going to announce at 2pm? His FB is teasing big news.
Anonymous
Post 03/30/2020 11:30     Subject: When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?
Anonymous wrote:Every time I go (once/week) to the grocery store there is someone getting very close to me despite the lines marked on the floor. I keep a safe distance and go to the isles where there’s no one around. But as soon as I start grabbing items these people come to look at the items.


Yell at them.
Anonymous
Post 03/30/2020 11:28     Subject: When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think most projections are showing sometime between mid-April to mid-May. By June, the warm weather should help contain the spread... for now.


Really? Is this evidence based?


Yes, there is a lot of evidence from the SARS epidemic.


In the interview with the epidemiologist Michael T. Osterholm that everyone loves to cite, he said there is NOT evidence that coronaviruses slow down in the summer, at least not due to the weather. He cited Mers and Sars as his two examples. Mers was primarily located in the very hot Middle East. And with Sars, he described the timing in totally different terms, how they were able to figure out when patients became contagious and isolate them and thereby slow down the epidemic. The fact that it happened around summertime was a coincidence.