Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Go watch the video from Italians making the rounds on social media about how they wish they knew what they know now.

This is going to get way, way worse in the coming 2-3 weeks.

We don't have people spilling out of hospitals, gasping for air. Yet.

We don't have home with bodies stuck inside. Yet.

We are all still pretty stocked up but food isn't dwindling. Yet.

All of this is going to be a massive psychological shock when video start leaking on social media of piles of bodies. We will have to dig mass graves or run the crematoriums 24/7.

Vast majority of Americans are not psychologically prepared for the shock that is about to come.

I'm an economist. The best thing we can do right now is shut down everything for two weeks: no airplanes, mandatory country-wide quarantine, close ALL the financial markets. In addition, suspend all debt payments and property rents for two months.

Our entire society needs a time-out. That's the only way to maintain asset values and minimize job/business losses.

You sound utterly unhinged.

Dr. Faulci predicts more people will die in US than from WW2. How do you think that will look? PP just sounds like a grim realist. You sound hopelessly naive.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Go watch the video from Italians making the rounds on social media about how they wish they knew what they know now.

This is going to get way, way worse in the coming 2-3 weeks.

We don't have people spilling out of hospitals, gasping for air. Yet.

We don't have home with bodies stuck inside. Yet.

We are all still pretty stocked up but food isn't dwindling. Yet.

All of this is going to be a massive psychological shock when video start leaking on social media of piles of bodies. We will have to dig mass graves or run the crematoriums 24/7.

Vast majority of Americans are not psychologically prepared for the shock that is about to come.

I'm an economist. The best thing we can do right now is shut down everything for two weeks: no airplanes, mandatory country-wide quarantine, close ALL the financial markets. In addition, suspend all debt payments and property rents for two months.

Our entire society needs a time-out. That's the only way to maintain asset values and minimize job/business losses.

You sound utterly unhinged.

Dr. Faulci predicts more people will die in US than from WW2. How do you think that will look? PP just sounds like a grim realist. You sound hopelessly naive.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Go watch the video from Italians making the rounds on social media about how they wish they knew what they know now.

This is going to get way, way worse in the coming 2-3 weeks.

We don't have people spilling out of hospitals, gasping for air. Yet.

We don't have home with bodies stuck inside. Yet.

We are all still pretty stocked up but food isn't dwindling. Yet.

All of this is going to be a massive psychological shock when video start leaking on social media of piles of bodies. We will have to dig mass graves or run the crematoriums 24/7.

Vast majority of Americans are not psychologically prepared for the shock that is about to come.

I'm an economist. The best thing we can do right now is shut down everything for two weeks: no airplanes, mandatory country-wide quarantine, close ALL the financial markets. In addition, suspend all debt payments and property rents for two months.

Our entire society needs a time-out. That's the only way to maintain asset values and minimize job/business losses.

You sound utterly unhinged.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know a lot of people pulling out and will put it in again near the bottom.

Oh, yes, that’s a great strategy.

I think (and hope) that PP was joking.

PP here. I'm not joking. I'm not doing that, but many people are. I know a lot of people who will buy at 18k or so.

Anonymous wrote:I cannot look at my 401k. Why are you pulling your money out????????

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not messing with my 401k but pulled all my other investments our when Dow was at 26,000. This is going to get much worse before it gets better. Will probably put money back in in April or May when Dow will probably be down to 14,000 to 15,000. The markets aren’t going to go up when we have 10,000+ deaths from this, if not hundreds of thousands. I’m not riding the elevator all the way down to 0.

NYT story says new modeling shows hundreds of thousands of death is a best case scenario if everyone stays home for 3-4 months. Downside is 2.2 million deaths in US. This isn’t over by April or May by a long shot.

That said a chunk of my money is in the stock market because I intend to use it over the next 10-30 years so I am leaving that chunk there.

I think a good test is whether you are willing to lose half the money you have in the stock market in the short term. If not, consider a less risky investment

Why wouldn’t you pull out now and just reinvest later then? It makes no sense to just let your money depreciate when you could just buy way stocks for your money down the road. “Timing the market” is a phrase used for pretending you can predict the market’s reaction to unknown events in the future. We know there will be tens or hundreds of thousands deaths. Why would the markets go up when NYC turns into Wuhan?

Because I don’t know in advance when the gains will come. A huge percentage of stock market gains in a bull market come in single day bursts and if I miss even 2 or 3 of those I’d be worse off than if I rode it all the way down and all the way up again. Plus I don’t have to decide whether it’s a temporary revival/dead cat bounce or the true beginning of a bull market, I just wait.

All through the Great Recession my TSP was losing money even though I kept contributing but I just started throwing the statements in the trash without opening them and I am almost certainly better off than if I had tried to get out and back in.

I can’t promise the same will happen here but I am willing to bet that if I commit to the market long term I personally will do better financially (and mentally) than if I try to time it.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not messing with my 401k but pulled all my other investments our when Dow was at 26,000. This is going to get much worse before it gets better. Will probably put money back in in April or May when Dow will probably be down to 14,000 to 15,000. The markets aren’t going to go up when we have 10,000+ deaths from this, if not hundreds of thousands. I’m not riding the elevator all the way down to 0.

NYT story says new modeling shows hundreds of thousands of death is a best case scenario if everyone stays home for 3-4 months. Downside is 2.2 million deaths in US. This isn’t over by April or May by a long shot.

That said a chunk of my money is in the stock market because I intend to use it over the next 10-30 years so I am leaving that chunk there.

I think a good test is whether you are willing to lose half the money you have in the stock market in the short term. If not, consider a less risky investment

Why wouldn’t you pull out now and just reinvest later then? It makes no sense to just let your money depreciate when you could just buy way stocks for your money down the road. “Timing the market” is a phrase used for pretending you can predict the market’s reaction to unknown events in the future. We know there will be tens or hundreds of thousands deaths. Why would the markets go up when NYC turns into Wuhan?

NP. The market is down like 35% now. If you pulled out a few weeks ago, you got lucky. For everyone else, you just have to ride it out. The problems is that you think you know the direction of the market, which you don't.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not messing with my 401k but pulled all my other investments our when Dow was at 26,000. This is going to get much worse before it gets better. Will probably put money back in in April or May when Dow will probably be down to 14,000 to 15,000. The markets aren’t going to go up when we have 10,000+ deaths from this, if not hundreds of thousands. I’m not riding the elevator all the way down to 0.

NYT story says new modeling shows hundreds of thousands of death is a best case scenario if everyone stays home for 3-4 months. Downside is 2.2 million deaths in US. This isn’t over by April or May by a long shot.

That said a chunk of my money is in the stock market because I intend to use it over the next 10-30 years so I am leaving that chunk there.

I think a good test is whether you are willing to lose half the money you have in the stock market in the short term. If not, consider a less risky investment

Why wouldn’t you pull out now and just reinvest later then? It makes no sense to just let your money depreciate when you could just buy way stocks for your money down the road. “Timing the market” is a phrase used for pretending you can predict the market’s reaction to unknown events in the future. We know there will be tens or hundreds of thousands deaths. Why would the markets go up when NYC turns into Wuhan?

Anonymous wrote:Lots of impatient people on here.

We haven’t hit bottom yet.

Wait.

Then buy.