Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many schools will go under between now and then.

This is what many are predicting.

But they will all be at the very bottom. There will be exactly the same amount of competitiveness at the top -- probably even more. Top in-state schools in particular.

There may be some relaxation at what is now the mid-level privates as they get more desperate for full pays, and some increased merit aid at the schools slightly above them. That's the best you can hope for IMHO. It will not be a return to 1966 admission rates.

Not necessarily. Two examples of colleges struggling financially that are not at the very bottom: Earlham and Beloit, 80 and 82 respectively on USNews natl liberal arts list.

Earlham isn't really struggling financially. They just had very conservative advisory board members who raised the alarm about some operating budgets that were drifting up. But they have a 400 million dollar endowment. They --like Middlebury--just need to tighten their belts a bit. These are not likely the colleges that will close.
Beloit's endowment however is about 1/3 of the size of Earlham's--and is in a little tighter situation. But it's unlikely they would close either. There are hundreds of tiny colleges that aren't on the Princeton Review/US News lists--those are the ones that are in most danger.

Earlham is only a little over 1,000 students. That size is problematic these days because it doesn't offer enough depth or breadth in degree programs and the cost structure isn't spread out over enough students.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many schools will go under between now and then.

This is what many are predicting.

if you're going to post something like this, please also provide reliable resource for the data

I'm not the PP, nor am I an alarmist who thinks tons of SLACs are going to close, but I do think the situation is an issue as does the credit rating of these schools. Many schools have received "negative" outlooks which just means their credit rating will go down a bit--not a big deal if you're in the A1, A2 credit rating--this will go up and down as schools manage their assets in response. But I do think you should read the Moody's financial reports on schools to get a sense which might be in the expected rocky territory but likely be fine and which are in danger. It's not always which ones are best/worst academically.

https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/datapoints/349363/A-Bad-Outlook-for-Higher-Ed/

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many schools will go under between now and then.

This is what many are predicting.

if you're going to post something like this, please also provide reliable resource for the data

2007 had the highest number of births in US history at about 4.3 million. 2018 was about 600k less.

The effect on college admission numbers will be interesting but immigrants and international students may fill in the gaps, as they are doing now at many schools.

The cliff has already started with the lower birth rates immediately after 9/11 and enrollments are shrinking everywhere. While this is happening, there is also an increase in first-generation college students and the demographics and dynamics of the campus are changing a lot; this is more true for schools that are smaller, private, SLAC, etc... In other words, it will always be difficult to get into an ivy or very very highly regarded school. More schools will go under. Fewer professors will be tenured. More learning will occur online. On the other hand, community colleges will boom/are booming. I am a college professor at one of the schools being affected by this and it is already very impactful and adjustments need to happen/are happening.

I think by the time our 5th/6th graders get to college (I have one of these) the changes will have happened and admissions process will have re-calibrated.

College bound seniors are expected to decline 15% after 2025, except in a few states.

https://hechingerreport.org/college-students-predicted-to-fall-by-more-than-15-after-the-year-2025/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2019-05-30/college-enrollment-bust-is-headed-this-way-by-2026

Anonymous wrote:Yes, and I think more than a few colleges will go out of business between now and then. We made sure to check out the endowments for the colleges our DC applied to this year.

I agree.
Will the highly selective schools be more competitive than ever? Yes. The others, not so much. The smarter leadership at colleges are already preparing.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many schools will go under between now and then.

This is what many are predicting.

But they will all be at the very bottom. There will be exactly the same amount of competitiveness at the top -- probably even more. Top in-state schools in particular.

There may be some relaxation at what is now the mid-level privates as they get more desperate for full pays, and some increased merit aid at the schools slightly above them. That's the best you can hope for IMHO. It will not be a return to 1966 admission rates.

Not necessarily. Two examples of colleges struggling financially that are not at the very bottom: Earlham and Beloit, 80 and 82 respectively on USNews natl liberal arts list.

Earlham isn't really struggling financially. They just had very conservative advisory board members who raised the alarm about some operating budgets that were drifting up. But they have a 400 million dollar endowment. They --like Middlebury--just need to tighten their belts a bit. These are not likely the colleges that will close.
Beloit's endowment however is about 1/3 of the size of Earlham's--and is in a little tighter situation. But it's unlikely they would close either. There are hundreds of tiny colleges that aren't on the Princeton Review/US News lists--those are the ones that are in most danger.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many schools will go under between now and then.

This is what many are predicting.

But they will all be at the very bottom. There will be exactly the same amount of competitiveness at the top -- probably even more. Top in-state schools in particular.

There may be some relaxation at what is now the mid-level privates as they get more desperate for full pays, and some increased merit aid at the schools slightly above them. That's the best you can hope for IMHO. It will not be a return to 1966 admission rates.

Not necessarily. Two examples of colleges struggling financially that are not at the very bottom: Earlham and Beloit, 80 and 82 respectively on USNews natl liberal arts list.

We are not talking about colleges that are struggling financially due to management, not declining enrollments.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many schools will go under between now and then.

This is what many are predicting.

But they will all be at the very bottom. There will be exactly the same amount of competitiveness at the top -- probably even more. Top in-state schools in particular.

There may be some relaxation at what is now the mid-level privates as they get more desperate for full pays, and some increased merit aid at the schools slightly above them. That's the best you can hope for IMHO. It will not be a return to 1966 admission rates.

Not necessarily. Two examples of colleges struggling financially that are not at the very bottom: Earlham and Beloit, 80 and 82 respectively on USNews natl liberal arts list.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's true for good state schools for sure. I have seen internal projections

+1 I work at one and this is a primary focus for strategic planning.

Maybe my kids will get in to UVA. Woohoo!

You mean WaHooWa? Lol

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many schools will go under between now and then.

This is what many are predicting.

But they will all be at the very bottom. There will be exactly the same amount of competitiveness at the top -- probably even more. Top in-state schools in particular.

There may be some relaxation at what is now the mid-level privates as they get more desperate for full pays, and some increased merit aid at the schools slightly above them. That's the best you can hope for IMHO. It will not be a return to 1966 admission rates.

No but a return to 1996 sure would be nice!

Anonymous wrote:Some data (from https://www.ssa.gov/oact/HistEst/Population/2019/SSPopJul_TR2019.txt)

number of 18 year olds in

2020 - 4,400,731
2025 - 4,615,594
2030 - 4,594,542

I wouldn't expect any noticable change.

Sorry, pulled wrong lines:

2020 - 4,400,731
2025 - 4,706,879
2030 - 4,400,829

Still basically steady.

Some data (from https://www.ssa.gov/oact/HistEst/Population/2019/SSPopJul_TR2019.txt)

number of 18 year olds in

2020 - 4,400,731
2025 - 4,615,594
2030 - 4,594,542

I wouldn't expect any noticable change.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many schools will go under between now and then.

This is what many are predicting.

But they will all be at the very bottom. There will be exactly the same amount of competitiveness at the top -- probably even more. Top in-state schools in particular.

There may be some relaxation at what is now the mid-level privates as they get more desperate for full pays, and some increased merit aid at the schools slightly above them. That's the best you can hope for IMHO. It will not be a return to 1966 admission rates.