Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have two kids that went to UVA and I’ve been following the admission statistics over the years. They really haven’t gotten all that much more selective. Yes, they get more applications, but they also admit more students and have lower yields. The entering stats for the new classes are not that much more impressive than classes of 10 or 20 years ago. Clearly a lot of marginally qualified applicants are now applying because of the ease of the common application.

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No. Just go look at the SCHEV stats. They climb every year.

Well, median GPA went from 4.04 to 4.33 from 2006 to 2018, but median GPA at more affluent high schools increased .27 from 2004 to 2015 and .17 at less affluent high schools. It is mostly high school grade inflation.

To clarify for everyone, SCHEV stands for the Statew Council of Higher Education for Virginia. Every year it provides research and statistics on most of the schools in Virgina, and of course UVA. Anyone considering applying to Virginia schools should study all the research reports in this Va government report. As to UVA, if you enter UVA on this particular page and hit "update" you will see the GPA and test scores for last falls class. This helps the student and parent get a feel about what the likelihood of admission is. Be mindful, however, that these are ENTERING scores which are lower than the ACCEPTED scores. These are the students who actually showed up.http://research.schev.edu//enrollment/B10_FreshmenProfile.asp

As to GPA, the 75% (top 25%) median is a 4.48 (that means 12.5% is above a 4.48 and 12.5% is below); the median GPA for the class is a 4.33 and the bottom 25% median is a 4.16. As to SAT the 75th percentile is a 1480; the median 50% has a 1420 and the bottom median 25% is a 1330. Similarly the 75th percentile ACT is a 34; the median 50% is a 32 and the bottom 25th percentile is a 30.

This is why, personally, I don't think UVA is a safety. Those are high GPAs and test scores. But YRMV.

Anonymous wrote:UVA will be nobody’s safety school in five years. Apps will top 70,000. There will be many angry legacy parents.

There are already angry legacy parents - with kids with stats that statistically should have been what you would call "a safety". No school is a safety anymore, especially those that practice yield protection year, those in the counseling field see upset parents and students that counted on a particular school and the result from admissions is a mystery. Sure, it is said that very high stats kids use UVA as a legacy - but that doesn't mean that they always get in. I know some parents who had meetings with the UVA admission director to ask for an explanation as to why their triple legacy kid didn't get in. It's all a lottery out there.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have two kids that went to UVA and I’ve been following the admission statistics over the years. They really haven’t gotten all that much more selective. Yes, they get more applications, but they also admit more students and have lower yields. The entering stats for the new classes are not that much more impressive than classes of 10 or 20 years ago. Clearly a lot of marginally qualified applicants are now applying because of the ease of the common application.

'


No. Just go look at the SCHEV stats. They climb every year.

Well, median GPA went from 4.04 to 4.33 from 2006 to 2018, but median GPA at more affluent high schools increased .27 from 2004 to 2015 and .17 at less affluent high schools. It is mostly high school grade inflation.

Anonymous wrote:I have two kids that went to UVA and I’ve been following the admission statistics over the years. They really haven’t gotten all that much more selective. Yes, they get more applications, but they also admit more students and have lower yields. The entering stats for the new classes are not that much more impressive than classes of 10 or 20 years ago. Clearly a lot of marginally qualified applicants are now applying because of the ease of the common application.

I think you captured it pretty accurately. There are a lot more applications, because kids apply to more colleges, but both in-state and OOS yield are down over time. OOS yield went from 35% in 2005 to 22% in 2017. The In state yield went from 68% to 58% over the same period.

Anonymous wrote:I have two kids that went to UVA and I’ve been following the admission statistics over the years. They really haven’t gotten all that much more selective. Yes, they get more applications, but they also admit more students and have lower yields. The entering stats for the new classes are not that much more impressive than classes of 10 or 20 years ago. Clearly a lot of marginally qualified applicants are now applying because of the ease of the common application.

'


No. Just go look at the SCHEV stats. They climb every year.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are the lastest admissions stats for Michigan? I always thought they were around 40% admit

Not even close and their yield is unmanagable, so for the 2020 applicants, it will be even more selective.

Michigan effectively serves as the state school for NY and NJ.

lol so true. "The University of New Jersey at Ann Arbor"

Oh stop. This is the sort of silly stuff people repeat because they think it makes them sound witty. Two second google search gives you the numbers.

29,821 Undergrads at Michigan
16,364 from Michigan
1,747 from New York
1,761 from Illinois
1,628 from CA

1,200 from NJ

Source: https://admissions.umich.edu/apply/freshmen-applicants/student-profile

So 10% of students at University of Michigan are from New York or New Jersey. That's pretty significant; I can't imagine there's any other state flagship outside of the northeast with such a high percent.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are the lastest admissions stats for Michigan? I always thought they were around 40% admit

Not even close and their yield is unmanagable, so for the 2020 applicants, it will be even more selective.

Michigan effectively serves as the state school for NY and NJ.

lol so true. "The University of New Jersey at Ann Arbor"

Oh stop. This is the sort of silly stuff people repeat because they think it makes them sound witty. Two second google search gives you the numbers.

29,821 Undergrads at Michigan
16,364 from Michigan
1,747 from New York
1,761 from Illinois
1,628 from CA

1,200 from NJ

Source: https://admissions.umich.edu/apply/freshmen-applicants/student-profile

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Has something changed in the last 2 years? Because our 2017 TJ grad on the advice of her counselor had one safety - UVA. And you could see on the scattergram that above a certain GPA/SAT combo, every kid got in.

I also see the same pattern on our base school scattergram - again above a certain GPA/SAT, everyone (except one red X) got in.

No, I don't think it has changed. Our school's Naviance shows a clear GPA line - above that line and 1300+ SAT and you are in. But I would imagine those lines are moving up and to the right.

Exactly. The line in Naviance can move, annually. The closer one is to the line, the less comforting it should be. In addition, there is so much that Naviance doesn't show; besides hooks, it doesn't show what school within UVA the student was admitted to -- or not admitted to. I would not rely solely on Naviance for determining a safety.

Fair point, but if you are in NoVA and looking at Naviance data, you'd be hard pressed to find a better data set than what you'll see for UVA, VT, W&M, etc. Hundreds of data points over the past 3 year years. You can make some pretty safe predictions.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Has something changed in the last 2 years? Because our 2017 TJ grad on the advice of her counselor had one safety - UVA. And you could see on the scattergram that above a certain GPA/SAT combo, every kid got in.

I also see the same pattern on our base school scattergram - again above a certain GPA/SAT, everyone (except one red X) got in.

No, I don't think it has changed. Our school's Naviance shows a clear GPA line - above that line and 1300+ SAT and you are in. But I would imagine those lines are moving up and to the right.

Exactly. The line in Naviance can move, annually. The closer one is to the line, the less comforting it should be. In addition, there is so much that Naviance doesn't show; besides hooks, it doesn't show what school within UVA the student was admitted to -- or not admitted to. I would not rely solely on Naviance for determining a safety.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are the lastest admissions stats for Michigan? I always thought they were around 40% admit

Not even close and their yield is unmanagable, so for the 2020 applicants, it will be even more selective.

Michigan effectively serves as the state school for NY and NJ.

lol so true. "The University of New Jersey at Ann Arbor"

I have two kids that went to UVA and I’ve been following the admission statistics over the years. They really haven’t gotten all that much more selective. Yes, they get more applications, but they also admit more students and have lower yields. The entering stats for the new classes are not that much more impressive than classes of 10 or 20 years ago. Clearly a lot of marginally qualified applicants are now applying because of the ease of the common application.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No. My kid goes to TJ, and the guidance office there specifically says that no student should consider UVA a safety. Period. Highly likely for some kids? Sure. But not a given and big surprises every year.

Michigan is arguably a heavier lift (depending on if you want engineering).

TJ considers VCU, GMU and Pitt safeties. Almost every kid who applied will be admitted. (Aside: Pitt is strange for TJ. Most year well over TJ kids apply to Pitt as a safety and every single one is admitted— 100%— almost all with significant merit).

Remember how you should define safety: your kid is certain to get in and you can definitely find a way for them and/or you to pay. The worst case scenario. But that definition, no. UVA can be a low target. But virtually never a safety.

Has something changed in the last 2 years? Because our 2017 TJ grad on the advice of her counselor had one safety - UVA. And you could see on the scattergram that above a certain GPA/SAT combo, every kid got in.

I also see the same pattern on our base school scattergram - again above a certain GPA/SAT, everyone (except one red X) got in.

No, I don't think it has changed. Our school's Naviance shows a clear GPA line - above that line and 1300+ SAT and you are in. But I would imagine those lines are moving up and to the right.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are the lastest admissions stats for Michigan? I always thought they were around 40% admit

Not even close and their yield is unmanagable, so for the 2020 applicants, it will be even more selective.

Michigan effectively serves as the state school for NY and NJ.

UVA will be nobody’s safety school in five years. Apps will top 70,000. There will be many angry legacy parents.

Anonymous wrote:What are the lastest admissions stats for Michigan? I always thought they were around 40% admit

Not even close and their yield is unmanagable, so for the 2020 applicants, it will be even more selective.