Anonymous wrote:The looming crisis is in elementary schools, not middle and high.

I posted the list above, which comes straight out of the DME MFP.

Overall, DCPS will have 886 fewer seats than enrolled students in elementary schools in 2027. However, those aren't evenly distributed. East of the Anacostia there will be a surplus. The rest of the city will be about 2,000 seats short.

No amount of boundary shuffling can make up for the fact that there just aren't enough seats.

They can move grades 6-8 out of the schools that still have it and into middle schools with excess capacity, remove PK from some elementaries, change feeder patterns and rules so that some schools are less desirable for OOB, move where some self-contained special ed classrooms are located, and move some of the boundaries. It isn't hard as a math problem; it's just hard politically.

The looming crisis is in elementary schools, not middle and high.

I posted the list above, which comes straight out of the DME MFP.

Overall, DCPS will have 886 fewer seats than enrolled students in elementary schools in 2027. However, those aren't evenly distributed. East of the Anacostia there will be a surplus. The rest of the city will be about 2,000 seats short.

No amount of boundary shuffling can make up for the fact that there just aren't enough seats.

And there will be a boundary review in 2022-23.

The time for handwringing is if there are no solutions to the above growth and capacity numbers then.

Set time aside on your calendars and show up.

Elementary School Gap Analysis -- 2027 Projections

School Address 2027 Capacity 2027 Enrollment Difference
Lafayette ES 5701 Broad Branch Road NW 805 1,167 (362)
Van Ness ES 1150 5th Street SE 347 653 (306)
Powell ES 1350 Upshur Street NW 480 713 (233)
Brent ES 301 North Carolina Avenue SE 408 577 (169)
Janney ES 4130 Albemarle Street NW 722 887 (165)
Beers ES 3600 Alabama Avenue SE 508 672 (164)
Key ES 5001 Dana Place NW 432 580 (148)
Bancroft ES 1755 Newton Street NW 550 686 (136)
Eaton ES 3301 Lowell Street NW 451 587 (136)
J O Wilson ES 660 K Street NE 513 647 (134)
Mann ES 4430 Newark Street NW 428 555 (127)
Seaton ES 1503 10th Street NW 446 565 (119)
Shepherd ES 7800 14th Street NW 400 496 (96)
Cleveland ES 1825 8th Street NW 346 437 (91)
Tyler ES 1001 G Street SE 564 655 (91)
Ludlow-Taylor ES 659 G Street NE 493 581 (88)
Marie Reed ES 2201 18th Street NW 486 571 (85)
Barnard ES 430 Decatur Street NW 753 836 (83)
Nalle ES 219 50th Street SE 400 480 (80)
Hearst ES 3950 37th Street NW 344 422 (78)
Payne ES 1445 C Street SE 348 425 (77)
Thomson ES 1200 L Street NW 357 427 (70)
H D Cooke ES 2525 17th Street NW 441 508 (67)
Stoddert ES 4001 Calvert Street NW 489 554 (65)
Ross ES 1730 R Street NW 176 230 (54)
Turner ES 3264 Stanton Road SE 530 582 (52)
Peabody ES (Capitol Hill Cluster) 425 C Street NE 240 291 (51)
Amidon-Bowen ES 401 I Street SW 400 446 (46)
Ketcham ES 1919 15th Street SE 325 369 (44)
Oyster Adams Bilingual School (Oyster) 2801 Calvert Street NW 375 401 (26)
Drew ES 5600 Eads Street NE 362 385 (23)
Maury ES 1250 Constitution Avenue NE 539 562 (23)
Boone ES 2200 Minnesota Avenue SE 468 487 (19)
Garrison ES 1200 S Street NW 356 369 (13)
Murch ES 4810 36th Street NW 730 739 (9)
Hyde-Addison ES 3219 O Street NW 400 406 (6)

Tubman ES 3101 13th Street NW 629 627 2
Watkins ES (Capitol Hill Cluster) 420 12th Street SE 460 457 3
Simon ES 401 Mississippi Avenue SE 325 312 13
Garfield ES 2435 Alabama Avenue SE 381 363 18
School Within School at Goding 920 F Street NE 444 421 23
Moten ES 1565 Morris Road SE 480 448 32
Bruce Monroe ES at Park View 3560 Warder Street NW 609 572 37
Burrville ES 801 Division Avenue NE 400 361 39
Kimball ES 3375 Minnesota Avenue SE 450 411 39
Plummer ES 4601 Texas Avenue SE 448 408 40
Langdon EC 1900 Evarts Street NE 500 446 54
Stanton ES 2701 Naylor Road SE 586 532 54
Thomas ES 650 Anacostia Avenue NE 474 419 55
Smothers ES 4400 Brooks Street NE 337 279 58
Dorothy Height ES 1300 Allison Street NW 635 558 77
Randle Highlands ES 1650 30th Street SE 450 370 80
C W Harris ES 301 53rd Street SE 418 332 86
Noyes EC 2725 10th Street NE 379 290 89
Houston ES 1100 50th Place NE 400 310 90
King, M L ES 3200 6th Street SE 444 352 92
Burroughs EC 1820 Monroe Street NE 450 355 95
Patterson ES 4399 South Capitol Terrace SW 498 388 110
Hendley ES 425 Chesapeake Street SE 479 343 136
Malcolm X ES at Green 1500 Mississippi Avenue SE 520 343 177
Langley EC 101 T Street NE 530 345 185
Miner ES 601 15th Street NE 550 339 211
Savoy ES 2400 Shannon Place SE 430 190 240
Bunker Hill ES 1401 Michigan Avenue NE 577 320 257
Aiton ES 533 48th Place NE 529 271 258

Total 30,224 31,110 (886)

Shepherd and Lafayette to Wells and MacFarland

Oyster and Bancroft to MacFarland and Roosevelt (this also allows additional PK-5 seats at Oyster)

Add grades 6-8 to Ellington

End right to attend destination middle and high school for kids who got in OOB to elementary schools. If you get in through the lottery for ES you stay through grade 5 and then lottery again (there could be a feeder school preference but I'd rather there not be).

In addition to helping with overcrowding, this plan would give kids who move to DC later on or who wanted to attend EOTP elementary schools more of a shot at WOTP middle and high schools.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Getting a Charter school is a mute point. Don't you think there could have already been a lets say replica of Basis or Latin if real estate wasn't an issue.

I think If DCPS saw this as a solution to a problem it has, they would work with the city to make it work.

You must be new here.

No way does DCPS see a charter as a solution to any problem it has. The two sectors are in an unstated grudge match for 'market share' and one additional reason DCPS opens up OOB seats and is expanding HS options is to claw back students from charters.

DCPS has a higher proportion of high school students already and is expanding and opening more application schools to build on that.

It's an appalling waste of taxpayer dollars that there are two separate boards for charter vs. public (helloooo duplication). THAT should be fixed now. (FWIW, I think middle and HS charters would be great, and options beyond performing arts such as International Baccalaureate curriculum, a science charter, math charter... all sorts of specialized curriculum that could appeal to high performing students and high-income parents.)

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Getting a Charter school is a mute point. Don't you think there could have already been a lets say replica of Basis or Latin if real estate wasn't an issue.

I think If DCPS saw this as a solution to a problem it has, they would work with the city to make it work.

You must be new here.

No way does DCPS see a charter as a solution to any problem it has. The two sectors are in an unstated grudge match for 'market share' and one additional reason DCPS opens up OOB seats and is expanding HS options is to claw back students from charters.

DCPS has a higher proportion of high school students already and is expanding and opening more application schools to build on that.

Maybe I need to restate it- If the city sees how this solves the DCPS overcrowding issue and appeases DCPCS, they could make it happen.

DCPS and the mayor have a strategy to deal with overcrowding -- it is the carrot, not stick approach and involves

a) more application high school seats to draw families willingly out of Wilson
b) moving people, by force, if necessary to schools with capacity and high OOB populations (e.g. Eaton to Hardy)
c) waiting until the boundary review, which will occur during a lame duck period (as it did last time)

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Getting a Charter school is a mute point. Don't you think there could have already been a lets say replica of Basis or Latin if real estate wasn't an issue.

I think If DCPS saw this as a solution to a problem it has, they would work with the city to make it work.

You must be new here.

No way does DCPS see a charter as a solution to any problem it has. The two sectors are in an unstated grudge match for 'market share' and one additional reason DCPS opens up OOB seats and is expanding HS options is to claw back students from charters.

DCPS has a higher proportion of high school students already and is expanding and opening more application schools to build on that.

Maybe I need to restate it- If the city sees how this solves the DCPS overcrowding issue and appeases DCPCS, they could make it happen.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Getting a Charter school is a mute point. Don't you think there could have already been a lets say replica of Basis or Latin if real estate wasn't an issue.

I think If DCPS saw this as a solution to a problem it has, they would work with the city to make it work.

You must be new here.

No way does DCPS see a charter as a solution to any problem it has. The two sectors are in an unstated grudge match for 'market share' and one additional reason DCPS opens up OOB seats and is expanding HS options is to claw back students from charters.

DCPS has a higher proportion of high school students already and is expanding and opening more application schools to build on that.

Anonymous wrote:Getting a Charter school is a mute point. Don't you think there could have already been a lets say replica of Basis or Latin if real estate wasn't an issue.

I think If DCPS saw this as a solution to a problem it has, they would work with the city to make it work.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think so. Especially languagenor Montessori.

You want 6th graders with no exposure to Montessori or immersion to start middle school?

No, these schools need to be more in line with Latin or other traditional schools. They need to be pulling from the Wilson feeder elementary schools, drawing them away from Deal and Hardy.

Except for the fact that charters are supposed to fill a curriculum void (language, Montessori, gifted ed, STEM, special ed, etc...), or pursue a civic mission, like education equity, *not* address overcrowding in a wealthy public school area. DCPS is responsible for planning to address that.

Of course, the city can get around that by allowing into Ward 3 a charter that fills a city-wide curriculum void. But I'd still much prefer that DCPS address overcrowding with high quality public schools, and that the city-wide charters be placed more centrally, accessible to the whole city, and further away from the private school kids.

Charters have used the curriculum gaps to expand, but that's not really the primary purpose. The charters movement began as an effort apply practical innovation which could be applied to the education landscape (public and private). In many ways DCPS has followed that lead in terms of expanding immersion, Montessori, etc.

But in reality, charters are mostly private entities carving out fiefdoms within the public ed landscape. As long as public dollars are being spent on charters the money should address structural inequities in public education, although that logic applies to the Wilson zone in a very different way than OP thinks.

A cryptic response. How does that logic apply to Wilson, exactly?

Getting a Charter school is a mute point. Don't you think there could have already been a lets say replica of Basis or Latin if real estate wasn't an issue.

Anonymous wrote:I think a more likely scenario is DCPS abandons a neighborhood-based school system and goes all-lottery.

Already, over three-quarters of the kids in public school don't go to their in-boundary school. Add in the private school kids and it's more like four-fifths.

The Wilson feeder pattern is projected to grow by 33% between now and 2027, adding 3190 students. No school in the pattern will grow less than 22%. Shifting boundaries won't solve the problem, because there aren't nearby schools with capacity. The schools with capacity are in the eastern part of the city.

The answer is build more schools or send the kids elsewhere.

Among the many problems already listed, parents ACROSS THE CITY hate this idea. In 2014 this was rejected by families in all wards. People like the idea of their IB school, even if they don't send their kids there.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think so. Especially languagenor Montessori.

You want 6th graders with no exposure to Montessori or immersion to start middle school?

No, these schools need to be more in line with Latin or other traditional schools. They need to be pulling from the Wilson feeder elementary schools, drawing them away from Deal and Hardy.

Except for the fact that charters are supposed to fill a curriculum void (language, Montessori, gifted ed, STEM, special ed, etc...), or pursue a civic mission, like education equity, *not* address overcrowding in a wealthy public school area. DCPS is responsible for planning to address that.

Of course, the city can get around that by allowing into Ward 3 a charter that fills a city-wide curriculum void. But I'd still much prefer that DCPS address overcrowding with high quality public schools, and that the city-wide charters be placed more centrally, accessible to the whole city, and further away from the private school kids.

Charters have used the curriculum gaps to expand, but that's not really the primary purpose. The charters movement began as an effort apply practical innovation which could be applied to the education landscape (public and private). In many ways DCPS has followed that lead in terms of expanding immersion, Montessori, etc.

But in reality, charters are mostly private entities carving out fiefdoms within the public ed landscape. As long as public dollars are being spent on charters the money should address structural inequities in public education, although that logic applies to the Wilson zone in a very different way than OP thinks.

Anonymous wrote:I think a more likely scenario is DCPS abandons a neighborhood-based school system and goes all-lottery.

Already, over three-quarters of the kids in public school don't go to their in-boundary school. Add in the private school kids and it's more like four-fifths.

The Wilson feeder pattern is projected to grow by 33% between now and 2027, adding 3190 students. No school in the pattern will grow less than 22%. Shifting boundaries won't solve the problem, because there aren't nearby schools with capacity. The schools with capacity are in the eastern part of the city.

The answer is build more schools or send the kids elsewhere.

The city can't afford the mass exodus from high-priced real estate in ward 3 that would be an inevitable consequence of this approach. Nor do I think that any of us can tolerate the massive increase in traffic that would result. Ward 3 families are definitely not a DCPS priority, but these consequences are too obvious to ignore.

I'd like to see a ward 3 charter or city-wide lottery middle school that has strong academics (but is not test-in) and that has a serious arts focus, with perhaps a slightly longer school day to ensure that academics aren't sacrificed. This could serve as a feeder school to Duke Ellington and could siphon off some kids from Deal and Hardy (we are IB for Hardy but would consider an arts-focused middle school for sure as long as the academics were also strong). For high school, students could continue to Duke Ellington, attend their IB high schools, or try for a test-in high school like Banneker or Walls. This school could also help to ensure that Duke Ellington is both filled with qualified DC (not VA and MD) kids and that kids enter with more advanced academic credentials, hopefully allowing for a better academic experience than Duke Ellington is currently able to offer.

I have no ideas, however, about where such a school could be built. The old Hardy on Foxhall Road is nowhere near metro so could be a difficult commute for MS-aged kids trying to use public transportation. (It is on a bus route.) I actually wonder if there might be room within the Duke Ellington school itself, which is enormous (an entire city block!) given the student population.