Enrollment Trends from 2003 to 2017:

Annandale: 2527 to 2136 (net loss of 389, mostly due to redistricting to Lake Braddock, Woodson and Edison)
Centreville: 2020 to 2568 (net gain of 548)
Chantilly: 2605 to 2779 (net gain of 174, affected by some redistricting from Oakton)
Edison: 1775 to 2060 (net gain of 285, received students from Annandale)
Fairfax: 2084 to 2326 (net gain of 242, offset by redistricting to Woodson)
Falls Church: 1434 to 2113 (net gain of 679)
Hayfield: 2516 to 2033 (net loss of 483, largely due to redistricting to South County)
Herndon: 2283 to 2344 (net gain of 61)
TJHSST: 1681 to 1786 (net gain of 105, due to program expansion)
Lake Braddock: 2594 to 2811 (net gain of 217, some due to redistricting from Annandale)
Langley: 1935 to 1945 (net gain of 10, essentially flat)
Lee: 2052 to 1742 (net loss of 310, some due to redistricting to West Springfield and South County)
Madison: 1719 to 2223 (net gain of 504, despite some redistricting to South Lakes)
Marshall: 1274 to 2239 (net gain of 965)
McLean: 1651 to 2167 (net gain of 516)
Mount Vernon: 1721 to 2034 (net gain of 313)
Oakton: 2286 to 2632 (net gain of 346, with some redistricting to South Lakes and from Chantilly)
Robinson: 3023 to 2656 (net loss of 367, with some redistricting from Woodson and to South County)
South County: 0 to 2195 (opened in 2005)
South Lakes: 1611 to 2465 (net gain of 854, due largely to redistricting from Westfield, Oakton and Madison)
Stuart: 1510 to 2180 (net gain of 670)
West Potomac: 2046 to 2593 (net gain of 547)
West Springfield: 2240 to 2191 (net loss of 49, despite some redistricting from Lee)
Westfield: 2921 to 2640 (net loss of 281, due largely to redistricting to South Lakes)
Woodson: 1882 to 2457 (net gain of 575, due largely to redistricting from Annandale and Fairfax, somewhat offset to redistricting to Robinson)

Anonymous wrote:Ding ding ding! The only way a western fairfax school is being built is if the communities across FCPS agree that a massive redistricting is also acceptable. That isn't happening. Hence the expansions in capacity. We brought the issue onto ourselves. If we waited smaller schools we would be okay with boundaries moving. But parents are not.

This is actually strangely logical. And yes, I will be voting yes as wel.

Apologies for the typos but my iPhoto en is dumb

Ding ding ding! The only way a western fairfax school is being built is if the communities across FCPS agree that a massive redistricting is also acceptable. That isn't happening. Hence the expansions in capacity. We brought the issue onto ourselves. If we waited smaller schools we would be okay with boundaries moving. But parents are not.

This is actually strangely logical. And yes, I will be voting yes as wel.

Anonymous wrote:Madison and West Potomac do not need to be expanded

I cannot vote for a school bond to expand West Potomac knowing that Mount Vernon is under-enrolled and the SB hasn't lifted a finger to redistrict or consider whether IB depresses the enrollment at MV.

Madison is overcrowded now but why expand it to 2500 kids or more when FCPS already has plans to expand both South Lakes and Oakton? I guess to take kids from Marshall so Marshall can become more Tysons-centric?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think there is a lot of BS on here. Yes-- everything wants a small HS for their kids. But no one wants to sacrifice. Raise your hand if you are now zoned for Oakton or Chantilly and are willing to be rezoned-- to Westfield, or Herndon-- or a brand new school that is a crapshoot when it opens its doors with no reputation.

Everyone wants someone else to be rezoned, so that their kid can attend a smaller school. But no one is raising their hands to be rezoned except high SES families in crappy HSs. And those are not the people who will be rezoned.

Herndon and Westfield need to keep their non-FARMS kids so they don't slide further. The SB have to pull low income kids from weak HSs and high income kids from strong performers to get a balanced HS. It's lose-lose.

The SB is moving heaven and earth not to rezone because the Western county is still so angry from the last re-zoning that someone assaulted a SB member a couple years ago. And ask yourself if you are okay with YOUR KID being rezoned to a weaker HS or a new HS just getting started, GS unknown. If you are, then go ahead and argue rezoning. But, I'm Chantilly zoned, and I want the Western county schools smaller. But not enough to risk my kid being rezoned to the new HS or Westfield. Or taking the hit in my house value.

All Herndon needs to do to get higher income familiar is take from the ridiculous Langley borders that exist now.

Not so easy when Herndon is overcrowded and Langley is under-enrolled.

Anonymous wrote:I think there is a lot of BS on here. Yes-- everything wants a small HS for their kids. But no one wants to sacrifice. Raise your hand if you are now zoned for Oakton or Chantilly and are willing to be rezoned-- to Westfield, or Herndon-- or a brand new school that is a crapshoot when it opens its doors with no reputation.

Everyone wants someone else to be rezoned, so that their kid can attend a smaller school. But no one is raising their hands to be rezoned except high SES families in crappy HSs. And those are not the people who will be rezoned.

Herndon and Westfield need to keep their non-FARMS kids so they don't slide further. The SB have to pull low income kids from weak HSs and high income kids from strong performers to get a balanced HS. It's lose-lose.

The SB is moving heaven and earth not to rezone because the Western county is still so angry from the last re-zoning that someone assaulted a SB member a couple years ago. And ask yourself if you are okay with YOUR KID being rezoned to a weaker HS or a new HS just getting started, GS unknown. If you are, then go ahead and argue rezoning. But, I'm Chantilly zoned, and I want the Western county schools smaller. But not enough to risk my kid being rezoned to the new HS or Westfield. Or taking the hit in my house value.

All Herndon needs to do to get higher income familiar is take from the ridiculous Langley borders that exist now.

Madison and West Potomac do not need to be expanded

I also do not have a dog in this fight. But I will be VOTING FOR the school bond.

If the Bond does not pass, the funds might be taken out of other schools. Because they may move forward to expand Madison & W Potomac anyways.

We need to focus on the school board rather than on the line item on the budget.

Anonymous wrote:PP, and I will say that I think a Western County test in-opt in magnet would be great. I would love to see an IB magnet, and then they can pull IB from everywhere else. STEM is more obvious in that part of the county. But right now, most of TJ comes from Western County and Loudoun-- and TJ was just renovated with all the STEM labs. But TJ II is another great solution.

NP. I don't have a dog in this fight yet because my kids are still in early elementary, but I'm in Western Fairfax and have been listening to my neighbors with older children. I'm surprised this idea hasn't gotten more traction from people in this area.

The SB is moving heaven and earth not to rezone because the Western county is still so angry from the last re-zoning that someone assaulted a SB member a couple years ago.

Yes, and the assault came from a woman in a neighborhood that was rezoned from Chantilly to Oakton.

However, I still wonder if there was something to that story that we were missing. And, I don't think that SB member realizes just how nasty she came across during that boundary fight--and the prior one. FWIW, she was elected as Supervisor. Had the election been two years earlier, she would not have had a chance.

PP, and I will say that I think a Western County test in-opt in magnet would be great. I would love to see an IB magnet, and then they can pull IB from everywhere else. STEM is more obvious in that part of the county. But right now, most of TJ comes from Western County and Loudoun-- and TJ was just renovated with all the STEM labs. But TJ II is another great solution.

I think there is a lot of BS on here. Yes-- everything wants a small HS for their kids. But no one wants to sacrifice. Raise your hand if you are now zoned for Oakton or Chantilly and are willing to be rezoned-- to Westfield, or Herndon-- or a brand new school that is a crapshoot when it opens its doors with no reputation.

Everyone wants someone else to be rezoned, so that their kid can attend a smaller school. But no one is raising their hands to be rezoned except high SES families in crappy HSs. And those are not the people who will be rezoned.

Herndon and Westfield need to keep their non-FARMS kids so they don't slide further. The SB have to pull low income kids from weak HSs and high income kids from strong performers to get a balanced HS. It's lose-lose.

The SB is moving heaven and earth not to rezone because the Western county is still so angry from the last re-zoning that someone assaulted a SB member a couple years ago. And ask yourself if you are okay with YOUR KID being rezoned to a weaker HS or a new HS just getting started, GS unknown. If you are, then go ahead and argue rezoning. But, I'm Chantilly zoned, and I want the Western county schools smaller. But not enough to risk my kid being rezoned to the new HS or Westfield. Or taking the hit in my house value.

Oakton would still have had over 2100 kids at the time without the additional kids from Chantilly. The Providence representative on the SB just wanted to keep Oakton football somewhat competitive in its district. The key factors on which such decisions are made are insane.

That's not the way I recall it. I think Oakton would have gone under 1900. Of course, since then, all the schools have increased.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the ideal school size was 2000 then why the hell did they expand westfield to fit 3000 kids? thats ridiculously large.

They changed the number in order to justify the redistricting of South Lakes. They could not justify taking kids out of Westfield unless they came up with a rationale. Westfield was expanded only a year or so before the SL redistricting. Most of the kids who were sent to SL from Westfield lived in the Floris Elementary boundary. There would have been no reason to remove them from Westfield--so the School Board invented one. Chantilly was also thrown into the mix so that they could take kids from Chantilly and send them to Oakton in order to replace Oakton kids who were sent to SL. Otherwise, Oakton would have been way down in membership (at that time). I think it was Fox Mill kids who were sent to SL from Oakton. Oakton was not overcrowded, so to justify sending them to SL they said that Chantilly needed to downsize and sent kids from Navy Elementary to Oakton and then bumbed Fox Mill Oakton kids to SL.

The point is they had JUST expanded Westfield, but changed the rules to suit their purpose. Stu Gibson and the SL PTA were determined to bring in high SES to SL.

Oakton would still have had over 2100 kids at the time without the additional kids from Chantilly. The Providence representative on the SB just wanted to keep Oakton football somewhat competitive in its district. The key factors on which such decisions are made are insane.

Anonymous wrote:If the ideal school size was 2000 then why the hell did they expand westfield to fit 3000 kids? thats ridiculously large.

They changed the number in order to justify the redistricting of South Lakes. They could not justify taking kids out of Westfield unless they came up with a rationale. Westfield was expanded only a year or so before the SL redistricting. Most of the kids who were sent to SL from Westfield lived in the Floris Elementary boundary. There would have been no reason to remove them from Westfield--so the School Board invented one. Chantilly was also thrown into the mix so that they could take kids from Chantilly and send them to Oakton in order to replace Oakton kids who were sent to SL. Otherwise, Oakton would have been way down in membership (at that time). I think it was Fox Mill kids who were sent to SL from Oakton. Oakton was not overcrowded, so to justify sending them to SL they said that Chantilly needed to downsize and sent kids from Navy Elementary to Oakton and then bumbed Fox Mill Oakton kids to SL.

The point is they had JUST expanded Westfield, but changed the rules to suit their purpose. Stu Gibson and the SL PTA were determined to bring in high SES to SL.