Anonymous
Post 07/16/2017 13:22     Subject: Resignation most likely outcome?
Anonymous wrote:NP here. OP the most likely outcome is:

- Rs maintain control of House in 2018
- Rs pick up Senate seats in 2018 (probably not enough to overcome legislative fillibuster)
- Ds fail to field a viable candidate in 2020 and no prominent R challenges Trump; Trump wins re-election in 2020
- Trump appoints replacements for RBG and Kennedy, either before or after 2020
- Mueller finds some dirt on peripheral Trumpworld people like Flyn, but no finding of criminal wrongdoing for Trump
- Rs continue to dominate state politics able to maintain gerrymanderimg following 2020 census (SCOTUS is a wildcard on this point)

These are my predictions based on my reading of the political realities and the publicly available facts. The big wildcard, as another poster pointed out, is Trump's health over the next 7.5 years.


This

R will certainly improve its positions in the senate. D missed a big opportunity in 2016. There is no way 67 senators will vote to remove Trump from the office.

In 2020, Trump vs Kamala Harris, I think he is going to pull that off too.
Anonymous
Post 07/16/2017 13:21     Subject: Resignation most likely outcome?
Anonymous wrote:NP here. OP the most likely outcome is:

- Rs maintain control of House in 2018
- Rs pick up Senate seats in 2018 (probably not enough to overcome legislative fillibuster)
- Ds fail to field a viable candidate in 2020 and no prominent R challenges Trump; Trump wins re-election in 2020
- Trump appoints replacements for RBG and Kennedy, either before or after 2020
- Mueller finds some dirt on peripheral Trumpworld people like Flyn, but no finding of criminal wrongdoing for Trump
- Rs continue to dominate state politics able to maintain gerrymanderimg following 2020 census (SCOTUS is a wildcard on this point)

These are my predictions based on my reading of the political realities and the publicly available facts. The big wildcard, as another poster pointed out, is Trump's health over the next 7.5 years.


Sounds about right. Those who want Trump to resign would quickly find themselves with Pence. He is much more conservative across the board. Just look at his record. Their rage (just look at what they accomplished by forcing the Republicans to do away with the filibuster in the Gorsuch nomination) is blinding them to the consequences of their behavior. They are not going to change anything, the conservative agenda has won at all levels of local, state, and federal government and is now being implemented into the judicial branch. It is going to be tough sledding for a long while. Try and lay back and enjoy it.
Anonymous
Post 07/16/2017 13:19     Subject: Resignation most likely outcome?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:NP here. OP the most likely outcome is:

- Rs maintain control of House in 2018
- Rs pick up Senate seats in 2018 (probably not enough to overcome legislative fillibuster)
- Ds fail to field a viable candidate in 2020 and no prominent R challenges Trump; Trump wins re-election in 2020
- Trump appoints replacements for RBG and Kennedy, either before or after 2020
- Mueller finds some dirt on peripheral Trumpworld people like Flyn, but no finding of criminal wrongdoing for Trump
- Rs continue to dominate state politics able to maintain gerrymanderimg following 2020 census (SCOTUS is a wildcard on this point)

These are my predictions based on my reading of the political realities and the publicly available facts. The big wildcard, as another poster pointed out, is Trump's health over the next 7.5 years.


Adding:

I read the article and it's very weakly argued.

First, if Trump is truly worried about his family going to jail then he'll stay in power as long as he can in order to pardon them. He is distrustful of other people and would never rely on assurances that his family would be pardoned or spared if he resigned.

Second, the professor's main idea is that Trump's pressure on Comey will be the basis for criminal charges. This is highly unrealistic.


Agree completely! It really is a pathetic analysis but I assume it is just a synopsis of Bobbit's analysis. Just a lot of wishful thinking!

Here is the full article........ and it is just as superficial as the excerpts in the Independent.

http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/resigning-may-be-the-best-way-out-of-this-mess-for-president-donald-trump-a3587946.html

Anonymous
Post 07/16/2017 13:07     Subject: Re:Resignation most likely outcome?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:You all make me laugh. You have gone from not legitimately elected to impeachment and then to resignation. And some back and forth between the three.
It would behoove you to come to terms with the fact that President Trump is our president.


It would behoove Trump to come to terms that he is president. Time for him to start acting like one. And to stop lying. We've been waiting since January.


Eh, I'm all for him to continue the lies. Will make it harder to argue that he should stay in office.


You guys are clueless about Trump supporters probably because you don't interact with them. I am a liberal and I do - I have friends and associates who voted for Trump, some reluctantly. Most Trump supporters believe him and don't believe the media which they regard as biased and offering fake news. He can lie all he wants and when he tells them it is fake news, they believe him.

When Trump attacks the media, they love it - and they think it is deserved.


Thus proving them all fucking insane
Anonymous
Post 07/16/2017 13:05     Subject: Re:Resignation most likely outcome?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:You all make me laugh. You have gone from not legitimately elected to impeachment and then to resignation. And some back and forth between the three.
It would behoove you to come to terms with the fact that President Trump is our president.


It would behoove Trump to come to terms that he is president. Time for him to start acting like one. And to stop lying. We've been waiting since January.


Eh, I'm all for him to continue the lies. Will make it harder to argue that he should stay in office.


You guys are clueless about Trump supporters probably because you don't interact with them. I am a liberal and I do - I have friends and associates who voted for Trump, some reluctantly. Most Trump supporters believe him and don't believe the media which they regard as biased and offering fake news. He can lie all he wants and when he tells them it is fake news, they believe him.

When Trump attacks the media, they love it - and they think it is deserved.
Anonymous
Post 07/16/2017 13:02     Subject: Resignation most likely outcome?
I seriously hope he keels over. It would be easiest for everyone.
Anonymous
Post 07/16/2017 12:52     Subject: Resignation most likely outcome?
Anonymous wrote:NP here. OP the most likely outcome is:

- Rs maintain control of House in 2018
- Rs pick up Senate seats in 2018 (probably not enough to overcome legislative fillibuster)
- Ds fail to field a viable candidate in 2020 and no prominent R challenges Trump; Trump wins re-election in 2020
- Trump appoints replacements for RBG and Kennedy, either before or after 2020
- Mueller finds some dirt on peripheral Trumpworld people like Flyn, but no finding of criminal wrongdoing for Trump
- Rs continue to dominate state politics able to maintain gerrymanderimg following 2020 census (SCOTUS is a wildcard on this point)

These are my predictions based on my reading of the political realities and the publicly available facts. The big wildcard, as another poster pointed out, is Trump's health over the next 7.5 years.


Adding:

I read the article and it's very weakly argued.

First, if Trump is truly worried about his family going to jail then he'll stay in power as long as he can in order to pardon them. He is distrustful of other people and would never rely on assurances that his family would be pardoned or spared if he resigned.

Second, the professor's main idea is that Trump's pressure on Comey will be the basis for criminal charges. This is highly unrealistic.
Anonymous
Post 07/16/2017 12:40     Subject: Re:Resignation most likely outcome?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:You all make me laugh. You have gone from not legitimately elected to impeachment and then to resignation. And some back and forth between the three.
It would behoove you to come to terms with the fact that President Trump is our president.


It would behoove Trump to come to terms that he is president. Time for him to start acting like one. And to stop lying. We've been waiting since January.


Eh, I'm all for him to continue the lies. Will make it harder to argue that he should stay in office.
Anonymous
Post 07/16/2017 12:36     Subject: Resignation most likely outcome?
Funny, just donated to his reelection campaign. Think I'll give more now, this is fun watching libs rip their hair out.
Anonymous
Post 07/16/2017 12:36     Subject: Resignation most likely outcome?
NP here. OP the most likely outcome is:

- Rs maintain control of House in 2018
- Rs pick up Senate seats in 2018 (probably not enough to overcome legislative fillibuster)
- Ds fail to field a viable candidate in 2020 and no prominent R challenges Trump; Trump wins re-election in 2020
- Trump appoints replacements for RBG and Kennedy, either before or after 2020
- Mueller finds some dirt on peripheral Trumpworld people like Flyn, but no finding of criminal wrongdoing for Trump
- Rs continue to dominate state politics able to maintain gerrymanderimg following 2020 census (SCOTUS is a wildcard on this point)

These are my predictions based on my reading of the political realities and the publicly available facts. The big wildcard, as another poster pointed out, is Trump's health over the next 7.5 years.
Anonymous
Post 07/16/2017 12:35     Subject: Re:Resignation most likely outcome?
Anonymous wrote:You all make me laugh. You have gone from not legitimately elected to impeachment and then to resignation. And some back and forth between the three.
It would behoove you to come to terms with the fact that President Trump is our president.


+1. Not the shit show Clinton would have been.
Anonymous
Post 07/16/2017 11:53     Subject: Re:Resignation most likely outcome?
Anonymous wrote:How would it benefit Trump to resign.? At least while in office he can **try** to control the narrative and manipulate the process so that it doesn't get out of control (example - enlisting Devin Nunez help). If he resigns, do you really think that a criminal investigation would cease? This is nothing like Nixon. We're talking about working with a hostile foreign power to alter a democratic election.


I agree with this. And the Trump resigns and Pence pardons thing is only helpful on federal crimes. The State of NY is also coming after him for financial crimes. Which is bad luck for him. It is probably the worst state he could have chosen to piss off. Deeply liberal, deeply hates him, and the nation's most talented lawyers with a ton of experience in this area. NY will not stop until him and his kids, plus Jared, are in Orange jumpsuits. They may even go after the grandkids for good measure.
Anonymous
Post 07/16/2017 11:53     Subject: Resignation most likely outcome?
I don't think Trump's ego would let him resign.
I don't think the Rs in congress would vote to impeach him unless Trump announced on live TV that he was selling the USA to Putin.
I think we are stuck with him for 3.5 more years and in the meantime somehow appeal to the higher nature of Rs that people on Medicaid aren't freeloaders, that most muslims in America are decent people who are happy to be here, and that bringing up the specter of Hillary every 5 minutes isn't making America great again.
Anonymous
Post 07/16/2017 11:43     Subject: Re:Resignation most likely outcome?
How would it benefit Trump to resign.? At least while in office he can **try** to control the narrative and manipulate the process so that it doesn't get out of control (example - enlisting Devin Nunez help). If he resigns, do you really think that a criminal investigation would cease? This is nothing like Nixon. We're talking about working with a hostile foreign power to alter a democratic election.
Anonymous
Post 07/16/2017 11:26     Subject: Re:Resignation most likely outcome?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:You all make me laugh. You have gone from not legitimately elected to impeachment and then to resignation. And some back and forth between the three.
It would behoove you to come to terms with the fact that President Trump is our president.


That would be the logical progression, based on Nixon. He basically skipped the impeachment because it was at that point inevitable. But otherwise historically accurate.


Hmm! When Nixon was in office, the House was controlled by the Democrats with a decent majority. The Senate was also decidedly under the control of Democrats. Apples and oranges - but rant away!


I'm holding out hope that the Rs in congress will eventually be forced to look at impeachment. As more and more info comes to light, they won't be able to keep turning a blind eye. They have their own reelection to think about and they need more than just Trump supporters. They need moderate republicans and some independents, which are abandoning Trump in droves. Rs in congress are really stuck between a rock and a hard place right now, but they have no one to blame but themselves.


Republicans in Congress are not going to commit political suicide by alienating Trump supporters - it will not happen. Yes, they may lose some independents but moderate Republicans are not going to vote for a Democrat any more so than a moderate Democrat is going to vote for a Republican. Some Republicans in toss up districts may be vulnerable but the large majority of districts are safe. Besides, we will lost seats in the Senate to Republicans because there are around ten vulnerable Democratic incumbent senators who are in states that voted for Trump, up for reelection in 2018.