Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes, things are changing, but you really need to temper your optimism with the equity report.

79% of students in DC are still economically at risk. The numbers of ELL students are growing.

There will absolutely be a few more spots that higher SES families flock to, and it could be Jefferson although my money is on Hardy if your horizon is 4-6 years. Just look at Wash Latin middle school -- despite it being a lottery upper middle class families have largely taken it over.

But city-wide it's an uphill battle. Especially with middle school where students are there for just 3 years before high school. Much harder for parents to influence it than an elementary school.

That's largely a product of sibling preference. Many UMC families have little chance of getting into Latin aside from dumb luck.

Hardy is pretty far removed from Ward 6 and its feeders are tougher to get into than ever. Ironically Hardy has offered more lottery seats than Stuart Hobson for years. If Hardy improves it will be due to the same forces working in Ward 6 favor like changing demographics and fewer alternatives like Latin.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It will be faster than people think. There are only so many charter seats available. While families might not move to the new developments, they might purchase some of the existing homes nearby to be close to the new development.

Will it be the next Boston Latin or TJ or other elite school that people point to? No. Could it become the second best MS in the city in the next 5 years? Yes.

No. It couldn't.

When it comes to DCPS, it's at the back of the line behind Deal & Hardy & SH. And that's not including the foundering BM and McF.

The charters are way ahead with Latin, Basis, and DCI.

So, 5 years? Hah! Nope. Maybe 20 (Otoh, SH has been trying to improve for 35 years, so I wouldn't bet on any school that draws so heavily from Ward 9.)

I should have said the 2nd best DCPS MS in the city. The JA PARC scores are already basically equal to SH so it isn't like saying it could be the 2nd best is a big leap. If you are only of the 20% of non-sibs that gets into Latin, congrats. Basis isn't for everyone. Yet, the feeder schools keep growing.

So I'll changes my prediction to answer the question. In 5 years, I think half of the 4th graders (in 3 years) from AB, Brent, Tyler, and VN will end up at a renovated Jefferson. I think that would be attractive to many families.

JA scores are below SH admittedly low scores but SH is far better on ELA. JA pushes math because it has a an astute principal who recognizes that students who are significantly behind can make up more ground in less time in math than in ELA. By that same logic, SH ELA scores reflect a stronger academic culture, yet one that needs more emphasis on math where the scores are surprisingly low.

JA and SH are very different school populations and it's far too simple to compare the two based strictly on PARCC scores. JA and EH are teh better comparators.

Look at their student growth scores (which are a little dated at this point).

JA - 64% improve on math from year to year; 44% improve on ELA
SH - 41% improve on math; 48% on ELA.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The housing going up will not be attractive to families with 12 year olds. And the people who go public for elementary will do what most of Ward 6 does - lottery to charters, go private/parochial or move. It may turn but it will take a very long time.

This.

DCPS has officially ceded middle schools to the charter community. There are now more public school students in middle school charters than middle school DCPS.

Interestingly, there are now also more PreK students in charters than DCPS. The vote of NO CONFIDENCE in DCPS is getting louder and clearer.

(So why do we have to waste hundreds of millions on sinkholes like Roosevelt and Coolidge?)

Because DCPS enrollment goes back up (compared to charters) for 9th.

It doesn't at Coolidge. That's almost $200 million for maybe 50 graduating seniors.

Coolidge 346 kids

Washington Latin 335 kids

Basis DC 137 High school kids



Make sure I get this right. I'm a charter and you have to apply to my school and I can choose who gets in. I'm a DCPS school that's ranked low and get some of the kids that D.C. Basis and Washington Latin do not take. Yea, that's why DCPS more than likely spends more in high schools than middle schools as it seems that charters are focusing on Middle Schools. All information backs this up. Jefferson is the school that people should want to attend "if DCPS wants to put the necessary programs in place to make that a reality" in Southwest D.C. As the previous post mentioned Because DCPS enrollment goes back up (compared to charters) for 9th That's fact and even as bad as people say it is and a few others. It's still more enrolled than Latin, and Basis. These are from what people say on here are highly regarded high school charters. If their others that are highly regarded "i'm confident their enrollment numbers are low".

You got it wrong. A charter cannot choose who gets in. It's strictly via the lottery.

The DCPS application schools - SWW, Banneker, McKinley, Sharpe, Ellington - get to choose who gets in. At the high school level you need to add in that factor to see why some of the comprehensive high schools are struggling.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes, things are changing, but you really need to temper your optimism with the equity report.

79% of students in DC are still economically at risk. The numbers of ELL students are growing.

There will absolutely be a few more spots that higher SES families flock to, and it could be Jefferson although my money is on Hardy if your horizon is 4-6 years. Just look at Wash Latin middle school -- despite it being a lottery upper middle class families have largely taken it over.

But city-wide it's an uphill battle. Especially with middle school where students are there for just 3 years before high school. Much harder for parents to influence it than an elementary school.

That's largely a product of sibling preference. Many UMC families have little chance of getting into Latin aside from dumb luck.

Hardy is pretty far removed from Ward 6 and its feeders are tougher to get into than ever. Ironically Hardy has offered more lottery seats than Stuart Hobson for years. If Hardy improves it will be due to the same forces working in Ward 6 favor like changing demographics and fewer alternatives like Latin.

Anonymous wrote:Yes, things are changing, but you really need to temper your optimism with the equity report.

79% of students in DC are still economically at risk. The numbers of ELL students are growing.

There will absolutely be a few more spots that higher SES families flock to, and it could be Jefferson although my money is on Hardy if your horizon is 4-6 years. Just look at Wash Latin middle school -- despite it being a lottery upper middle class families have largely taken it over.

But city-wide it's an uphill battle. Especially with middle school where students are there for just 3 years before high school. Much harder for parents to influence it than an elementary school.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yea, not yet, but eventually, yes.

Back to OP's question, will Jefferson Academy become a viable options for high SES families within the "next few years." No, other than perhaps for few die-hard optimists.

Times are changing. Brent is about to admit its largest K class ever, families are staying longer across the city. There just aren't enough charter or Ward 3 MS seats to go around. Yes private schools are a choice for some and others will move. But in 5-10 years people will be shocked at where people send their MS students just as people from 2010 would be shocked about where people are sending their elementary students now.

Anonymous wrote:Yea, not yet, but eventually, yes.

Back to OP's question, will Jefferson Academy become a viable options for high SES families within the "next few years." No, other than perhaps for few die-hard optimists.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It will be faster than people think. There are only so many charter seats available. While families might not move to the new developments, they might purchase some of the existing homes nearby to be close to the new development.

Will it be the next Boston Latin or TJ or other elite school that people point to? No. Could it become the second best MS in the city in the next 5 years? Yes.

No. It couldn't.

When it comes to DCPS, it's at the back of the line behind Deal & Hardy & SH. And that's not including the foundering BM and McF.

The charters are way ahead with Latin, Basis, and DCI.

So, 5 years? Hah! Nope. Maybe 20 (Otoh, SH has been trying to improve for 35 years, so I wouldn't bet on any school that draws so heavily from Ward 9.)

I should have said the 2nd best DCPS MS in the city. The JA PARC scores are already basically equal to SH so it isn't like saying it could be the 2nd best is a big leap. If you are only of the 20% of non-sibs that gets into Latin, congrats. Basis isn't for everyone. Yet, the feeder schools keep growing.

So I'll changes my prediction to answer the question. In 5 years, I think half of the 4th graders (in 3 years) from AB, Brent, Tyler, and VN will end up at a renovated Jefferson. I think that would be attractive to many families.

JA scores are below SH admittedly low scores but SH is far better on ELA. JA pushes math because it has a an astute principal who recognizes that students who are significantly behind can make up more ground in less time in math than in ELA. By that same logic, SH ELA scores reflect a stronger academic culture, yet one that needs more emphasis on math where the scores are surprisingly low.

JA and SH are very different school populations and it's far too simple to compare the two based strictly on PARCC scores. JA and EH are teh better comparators.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It will be faster than people think. There are only so many charter seats available. While families might not move to the new developments, they might purchase some of the existing homes nearby to be close to the new development.

Will it be the next Boston Latin or TJ or other elite school that people point to? No. Could it become the second best MS in the city in the next 5 years? Yes.

No. It couldn't.

When it comes to DCPS, it's at the back of the line behind Deal & Hardy & SH. And that's not including the foundering BM and McF.

The charters are way ahead with Latin, Basis, and DCI.

So, 5 years? Hah! Nope. Maybe 20 (Otoh, SH has been trying to improve for 35 years, so I wouldn't bet on any school that draws so heavily from Ward 9.)

I should have said the 2nd best DCPS MS in the city. The JA PARC scores are already basically equal to SH so it isn't like saying it could be the 2nd best is a big leap. If you are only of the 20% of non-sibs that gets into Latin, congrats. Basis isn't for everyone. Yet, the feeder schools keep growing.

So I'll changes my prediction to answer the question. In 5 years, I think half of the 4th graders (in 3 years) from AB, Brent, Tyler, and VN will end up at a renovated Jefferson. I think that would be attractive to many families.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The housing going up will not be attractive to families with 12 year olds. And the people who go public for elementary will do what most of Ward 6 does - lottery to charters, go private/parochial or move. It may turn but it will take a very long time.

This.

DCPS has officially ceded middle schools to the charter community. There are now more public school students in middle school charters than middle school DCPS.

Interestingly, there are now also more PreK students in charters than DCPS. The vote of NO CONFIDENCE in DCPS is getting louder and clearer.

(So why do we have to waste hundreds of millions on sinkholes like Roosevelt and Coolidge?)

Because DCPS enrollment goes back up (compared to charters) for 9th.

It doesn't at Coolidge. That's almost $200 million for maybe 50 graduating seniors.

Coolidge 346 kids

Washington Latin 335 kids

Basis DC 137 High school kids



Make sure I get this right. I'm a charter and you have to apply to my school and I can choose who gets in. I'm a DCPS school that's ranked low and get some of the kids that D.C. Basis and Washington Latin do not take. Yea, that's why DCPS more than likely spends more in high schools than middle schools as it seems that charters are focusing on Middle Schools. All information backs this up. Jefferson is the school that people should want to attend "if DCPS wants to put the necessary programs in place to make that a reality" in Southwest D.C. As the previous post mentioned Because DCPS enrollment goes back up (compared to charters) for 9th That's fact and even as bad as people say it is and a few others. It's still more enrolled than Latin, and Basis. These are from what people say on here are highly regarded high school charters. If their others that are highly regarded "i'm confident their enrollment numbers are low".

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The housing going up will not be attractive to families with 12 year olds. And the people who go public for elementary will do what most of Ward 6 does - lottery to charters, go private/parochial or move. It may turn but it will take a very long time.

This.

DCPS has officially ceded middle schools to the charter community. There are now more public school students in middle school charters than middle school DCPS.

Interestingly, there are now also more PreK students in charters than DCPS. The vote of NO CONFIDENCE in DCPS is getting louder and clearer.

(So why do we have to waste hundreds of millions on sinkholes like Roosevelt and Coolidge?)

Because DCPS enrollment goes back up (compared to charters) for 9th.

It doesn't at Coolidge. That's almost $200 million for maybe 50 graduating seniors.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NP. You're right PP, but a new mayor could indeed change this calculus. If either Racine or Gray displaces Bowser, either might be persuaded to demand that DCPS offers honors classes at middle schools like Jefferson that are 2/3 empty where in-boundary percentages are low but feeder elementary schools are thriving (Jefferson Academy's building can accommodate three times as many students as it serves). This fix is obvious and gentrifiers vote. In that case, the sky would be the limit at JA. I don't expect a new mayor to be elected, or to demand this, but I wouldn't rule it out either. The Old Guard of the Dem machine in this city remembers the Jefferson honors program. A mayor of that ilk might be more amenable to moving to recreate it as a school within a school program than we think. Antwan Wilson is already making changes up the DCPS chain. The ground is being laid for greater change. In the meantime, I'm with the PPs who see more Brent families heading to Hardy than to JA.

There are simply not enough gentrifiers to make a significant difference to someone running city-wide (city-wide council is different because you can vote for more than one candidate). And not all gentrifiers prioritize schools when voting.