speaking as someone on more of a budget than many of the other parents at my DC's school, I would certainly tell people if it's too late to add more people. (Sometimes it truly is! Some venues won't even allow people beyond a certain number.)
That said, if things were that tight, I'd probably send them a warning email around the time of the rsvp deadline. Just saying "I haven't received your rsvp, and just wanted to check with you before I give the venue my final numbers. We still hope Larla can come, but if she can I need to know by the day after tomorrow, as I will be giving them the final headcount then. "