Anonymous
12/15/2013 10:29
Subject: Re:The list for where to apply in Common Lottery
Anonymous wrote:Me again ^^, to be clear, what I think you want to know is: for the most popular schools, the way the lottery works this year, does it mean that if you rank a super popular school anything less than #1 you are very possibly blowing your chance at that school?
The reality still is that if 250 people rank it #1 and there are only 7 spots, the odds are still not in anyone's favor of getting in. BUT, if it's true (and I think it is) that in essence there are almost separate pools of applicants, i.e. everyone who ranked it #1, everyone who ranked it #2, etc, then if I am understanding what I was told, if you rank it #2 and 250 people applied, you don't have any chance of getting better than #251 on the waitlist so, in essence, you're really probably not getting in, because 250 people ahead of you wanted it so badly, they ranked it #1. In other words, odds that they'll work their way through that list and have 250 people say "no" before you, are non-existent.
Last year, we didn't get into any school just from lotteries, and we did do the DCPS lottery as well. But one of our best waitlist numbers was for a very good school that we ranked lower than #3 (because we were trying to use our 1-3 for more likely schools), which illustrates my point that as long as we didn't get into one of our 1st choices (and therefore dropped off the list for all schools we ranked lower), we had basically equal odds of getting a good lottery number for all the schools we didn't get into. NOT SO this year. We probably wouldn't have had a shot at that really good school we ranked lower, because enough people might have ranked it higher so we would have gotten a particularly crappy waitlist number.
One theory I do have about this year (this is just me guessing, whereas the above was based on an actual conversation with staff of this year's common lottery process), is that for the really good schools that are not quite the superstar, everyone's dying to get in schools, even if you don't rank that school 1 or 2, the odds might be much better that people who rank the "good but not most in demand" like 3 or 4 may have much better odds at getting into a really good school. But that's just a theory.
Call the common lottery tomorrow if you think the ranking only matters if you get into a school and dropped off the lower ranked lists. It is more important thank that this year.
When I called, I specifically asked about this and they said emphatically that this is not the case. If they did this, they explained, people would have a real incentive to change their rankings to game the system. For example, if I really want to go to Two Rivers but know that without a sibling there, my chance for getting in even ranking it #1 are really slim, then I have an incentive to rank a less-popular school #1, or I will be less likely to get in there because I have ranked it lower (and #1 tankers are more likely to get in). So, under the system you outlined, I might put Bridges at #1 even though it is my #5 choice. They said one of the principles that guided setting up a system was ensuring that there is no incentive to strategically order your choices differently from your true preferences.
Anonymous
12/15/2013 10:28
Subject: The list for where to apply in Common Lottery
^^agree, the PP with lengthy explanations is wrong, despite her well intentioned efforts.
You should put them in the order that you actually, earnestly want for your child.
You should put them in the order that you actually, earnestly want for your child.
Anonymous
12/15/2013 10:20
Subject: The list for where to apply in Common Lottery
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Sorry, my reply came through in the quoted text. I called the Deputy Mayor for Education's office. They emphasized that there is no way to "game" the system by placing a less popular school high on your list. The best "strategy" for everyone is to list in order of true preference.
So glad that some are calling and getting accurate info. There is a lot of MISinformation early in this thread.
I spoke to one of the lead people at "Myschoolchoice.com" (or whatever the website is, don't have it in front of me right now) at the Ward 5 School fair, and I specifically spoke to her about the algorithim (sp?) (but I had a different question, still, we talked about it) and as I was getting ready to leave I asked her if she felt like people really understood how much the order you rank in does matter this year. She said they were doing everything they could on their part to try to emphasize that.
So if you haven't gotten the message yet, please understand this: the order matters TREMENDOUSLY this year. I would even go as far to say that if your 1st real choice is a popular school and you don't rank it 1 or 2, you probably have no chance of getting in. Because if I understand the algorithim correctly, the lottery will "favor" all #1 choices for a top school first, and not even move to #2 choices unless they don't fill the class.
It's possible I have that part wrong - if you're worried or confused you should call the myschoolchoice people and ask them. But if I were applying this year (which I'm not), I would research the hell out of as many schools as I thought I wanted, and be extremely thoughtful about my rankings.
PP you are quoting and I think you do have it wrong. The order really does matter--but it's not because you can't get into a popular school without ranking it high, but rather that if you rank another school that is less popular high and then get into it, you don't have a shot at the popular school. They are trying to maximize the percent of people who get into a high-ranked school, but that's because they try to match you once your number is pulled from the top of your list to the bottom. That means that you should order in your true rank preferences.
I think they need to do a lot more to explain the algorithm online--we should not have to call to find out about it!
No no no, this is really important to correct. YES, it is true that if you get into a school lower on your list, you are waitlisted at all the schools above you and you are taken off of consideration for school you ranked lower. This is how it worked last year.
The DIFFERENCE is that last year, until you got into a school at all, basically your odds of getting into the schools you ranked ahead of the school you got into were basically the same. So if you applied to 6 schools, and got into your 4th choice, for you, the fact that you ranked schools 1, 2 and 3 as 1, 2 and 3 doesn't really mean you have a better chance of getting into school you ranked 1 than 3. Your chances were essentially the same until you got into one and got dropped out of running for all the others.
THIS YEAR it DOES AFFECT YOUR ODDS. Why does it affect your odds? Because we all know that once the actual lottery runs and actual open spots are filled, waitlist position means EVERYTHING. By the end of summer last year we got into 2 of the most sought after charters because of our waitlist number.
This year it's basically that everyone who rates a school number 1 has better odds overall of getting into that school than those who rank it 2, because your number one ranking is weighted stronger (for lack of the correct technical term) than umber 2 or 3.
If you don't believe this, call tomorrow. I am not even applying and I'm really worried that so many people will not get this right. Call and ask the school if ranking a school 1st vs. last will actually affect your overall odds of getting in and therefore also your waitlist number..
I have called, and what you say is not accurate--people who rank a school #1 do not have a higher probability of getting in or getting a higher waitlist number than people who rank it #2 through #12. But it is not the same as last year. The order matter way more because they try to match with your higher-rated schools. That is not the same thing as saying that you have a higher probability of getting in or a high waitlist number by ranking a school #1 vs. #2, which is simply not true.
Anonymous
12/15/2013 10:14
Subject: Re:The list for where to apply in Common Lottery
Me again ^^, to be clear, what I think you want to know is: for the most popular schools, the way the lottery works this year, does it mean that if you rank a super popular school anything less than #1 you are very possibly blowing your chance at that school?
The reality still is that if 250 people rank it #1 and there are only 7 spots, the odds are still not in anyone's favor of getting in. BUT, if it's true (and I think it is) that in essence there are almost separate pools of applicants, i.e. everyone who ranked it #1, everyone who ranked it #2, etc, then if I am understanding what I was told, if you rank it #2 and 250 people applied, you don't have any chance of getting better than #251 on the waitlist so, in essence, you're really probably not getting in, because 250 people ahead of you wanted it so badly, they ranked it #1. In other words, odds that they'll work their way through that list and have 250 people say "no" before you, are non-existent.
Last year, we didn't get into any school just from lotteries, and we did do the DCPS lottery as well. But one of our best waitlist numbers was for a very good school that we ranked lower than #3 (because we were trying to use our 1-3 for more likely schools), which illustrates my point that as long as we didn't get into one of our 1st choices (and therefore dropped off the list for all schools we ranked lower), we had basically equal odds of getting a good lottery number for all the schools we didn't get into. NOT SO this year. We probably wouldn't have had a shot at that really good school we ranked lower, because enough people might have ranked it higher so we would have gotten a particularly crappy waitlist number.
One theory I do have about this year (this is just me guessing, whereas the above was based on an actual conversation with staff of this year's common lottery process), is that for the really good schools that are not quite the superstar, everyone's dying to get in schools, even if you don't rank that school 1 or 2, the odds might be much better that people who rank the "good but not most in demand" like 3 or 4 may have much better odds at getting into a really good school. But that's just a theory.
Call the common lottery tomorrow if you think the ranking only matters if you get into a school and dropped off the lower ranked lists. It is more important thank that this year.
The reality still is that if 250 people rank it #1 and there are only 7 spots, the odds are still not in anyone's favor of getting in. BUT, if it's true (and I think it is) that in essence there are almost separate pools of applicants, i.e. everyone who ranked it #1, everyone who ranked it #2, etc, then if I am understanding what I was told, if you rank it #2 and 250 people applied, you don't have any chance of getting better than #251 on the waitlist so, in essence, you're really probably not getting in, because 250 people ahead of you wanted it so badly, they ranked it #1. In other words, odds that they'll work their way through that list and have 250 people say "no" before you, are non-existent.
Last year, we didn't get into any school just from lotteries, and we did do the DCPS lottery as well. But one of our best waitlist numbers was for a very good school that we ranked lower than #3 (because we were trying to use our 1-3 for more likely schools), which illustrates my point that as long as we didn't get into one of our 1st choices (and therefore dropped off the list for all schools we ranked lower), we had basically equal odds of getting a good lottery number for all the schools we didn't get into. NOT SO this year. We probably wouldn't have had a shot at that really good school we ranked lower, because enough people might have ranked it higher so we would have gotten a particularly crappy waitlist number.
One theory I do have about this year (this is just me guessing, whereas the above was based on an actual conversation with staff of this year's common lottery process), is that for the really good schools that are not quite the superstar, everyone's dying to get in schools, even if you don't rank that school 1 or 2, the odds might be much better that people who rank the "good but not most in demand" like 3 or 4 may have much better odds at getting into a really good school. But that's just a theory.
Call the common lottery tomorrow if you think the ranking only matters if you get into a school and dropped off the lower ranked lists. It is more important thank that this year.
Anonymous
12/15/2013 10:01
Subject: The list for where to apply in Common Lottery
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Sorry, my reply came through in the quoted text. I called the Deputy Mayor for Education's office. They emphasized that there is no way to "game" the system by placing a less popular school high on your list. The best "strategy" for everyone is to list in order of true preference.
So glad that some are calling and getting accurate info. There is a lot of MISinformation early in this thread.
I spoke to one of the lead people at "Myschoolchoice.com" (or whatever the website is, don't have it in front of me right now) at the Ward 5 School fair, and I specifically spoke to her about the algorithim (sp?) (but I had a different question, still, we talked about it) and as I was getting ready to leave I asked her if she felt like people really understood how much the order you rank in does matter this year. She said they were doing everything they could on their part to try to emphasize that.
So if you haven't gotten the message yet, please understand this: the order matters TREMENDOUSLY this year. I would even go as far to say that if your 1st real choice is a popular school and you don't rank it 1 or 2, you probably have no chance of getting in. Because if I understand the algorithim correctly, the lottery will "favor" all #1 choices for a top school first, and not even move to #2 choices unless they don't fill the class.
It's possible I have that part wrong - if you're worried or confused you should call the myschoolchoice people and ask them. But if I were applying this year (which I'm not), I would research the hell out of as many schools as I thought I wanted, and be extremely thoughtful about my rankings.
PP you are quoting and I think you do have it wrong. The order really does matter--but it's not because you can't get into a popular school without ranking it high, but rather that if you rank another school that is less popular high and then get into it, you don't have a shot at the popular school. They are trying to maximize the percent of people who get into a high-ranked school, but that's because they try to match you once your number is pulled from the top of your list to the bottom. That means that you should order in your true rank preferences.
I think they need to do a lot more to explain the algorithm online--we should not have to call to find out about it!
No no no, this is really important to correct. YES, it is true that if you get into a school lower on your list, you are waitlisted at all the schools above you and you are taken off of consideration for school you ranked lower. This is how it worked last year.
The DIFFERENCE is that last year, until you got into a school at all, basically your odds of getting into the schools you ranked ahead of the school you got into were basically the same. So if you applied to 6 schools, and got into your 4th choice, for you, the fact that you ranked schools 1, 2 and 3 as 1, 2 and 3 doesn't really mean you have a better chance of getting into school you ranked 1 than 3. Your chances were essentially the same until you got into one and got dropped out of running for all the others.
THIS YEAR it DOES AFFECT YOUR ODDS. Why does it affect your odds? Because we all know that once the actual lottery runs and actual open spots are filled, waitlist position means EVERYTHING. By the end of summer last year we got into 2 of the most sought after charters because of our waitlist number.
This year it's basically that everyone who rates a school number 1 has better odds overall of getting into that school than those who rank it 2, because your number one ranking is weighted stronger (for lack of the correct technical term) than umber 2 or 3.
If you don't believe this, call tomorrow. I am not even applying and I'm really worried that so many people will not get this right. Call and ask the school if ranking a school 1st vs. last will actually affect your overall odds of getting in and therefore also your waitlist number..
Anonymous
12/15/2013 09:12
Subject: The list for where to apply in Common Lottery
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Think I'm finally getting this, while 1:30 is correct in that ranking matters, what REALLY matters is the luck of your draw. If you're one of the first picks, you get in to one of your top choices. If you're one of the last picked, you're wait listed everywhere, possibly in the 100s and even your "safety" may be getting full by then...
My question now is, what of you select a school that you're OOB at and have no preference as your #1 choice, and you get picked third in the lottery 5th. Will you be placed in the school until a child WITH preference is drawn (say at #10) and then you'll be kicked down your own list?
If this is the case, even if I'm drawn early, yet all of my top choices are likely to be filled by students with preference have I, so-to-speak, squandered an opportunity to guarantee myself a spot at a school that might have more preference-free slots? Because as it may take 500 draws to fill up my top 7 schools, but he time I get to number 8, isn't it now full?
I think of it this way. You have the same chance of getting in to school X if you place it as your only choice, or at the bottom of your list (assuming you don't get any of your higher picks). In terms of mechanics, it will be a two step process. First they conduct the lottery (As you say it's the luck of that draw that matters). Then they feed the lottery numbers and preferences into a computer program which figures out where you get in / are wait listed.
You have not "squandered an opportunity to guarantee myself a spot at a school that might have more preference-free slots? Because as it may take 500 draws to fill up my top 7 schools, but he time I get to number 8, isn't it now full?" - because the available seats at the school you listed at 8 are filled according the lottery numbers - giving preference to IB, kids with siblings etc. and eliminating kids with higher lottery numbers who have already been allocated a spot - but without other reference the rank order people gave the school on their list. It's a simple concept but proving quite difficult to explain.
This finally did it for me!!!! Thank you!
Anonymous
12/15/2013 08:16
Subject: The list for where to apply in Common Lottery
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Sorry, my reply came through in the quoted text. I called the Deputy Mayor for Education's office. They emphasized that there is no way to "game" the system by placing a less popular school high on your list. The best "strategy" for everyone is to list in order of true preference.
So glad that some are calling and getting accurate info. There is a lot of MISinformation early in this thread.
I spoke to one of the lead people at "Myschoolchoice.com" (or whatever the website is, don't have it in front of me right now) at the Ward 5 School fair, and I specifically spoke to her about the algorithim (sp?) (but I had a different question, still, we talked about it) and as I was getting ready to leave I asked her if she felt like people really understood how much the order you rank in does matter this year. She said they were doing everything they could on their part to try to emphasize that.
So if you haven't gotten the message yet, please understand this: the order matters TREMENDOUSLY this year. I would even go as far to say that if your 1st real choice is a popular school and you don't rank it 1 or 2, you probably have no chance of getting in. Because if I understand the algorithim correctly, the lottery will "favor" all #1 choices for a top school first, and not even move to #2 choices unless they don't fill the class.
It's possible I have that part wrong - if you're worried or confused you should call the myschoolchoice people and ask them. But if I were applying this year (which I'm not), I would research the hell out of as many schools as I thought I wanted, and be extremely thoughtful about my rankings.
PP you are quoting and I think you do have it wrong. The order really does matter--but it's not because you can't get into a popular school without ranking it high, but rather that if you rank another school that is less popular high and then get into it, you don't have a shot at the popular school. They are trying to maximize the percent of people who get into a high-ranked school, but that's because they try to match you once your number is pulled from the top of your list to the bottom. That means that you should order in your true rank preferences.
I think they need to do a lot more to explain the algorithm online--we should not have to call to find out about it!
Anonymous
12/15/2013 08:07
Subject: The list for where to apply in Common Lottery
Anonymous wrote:Think I'm finally getting this, while 1:30 is correct in that ranking matters, what REALLY matters is the luck of your draw. If you're one of the first picks, you get in to one of your top choices. If you're one of the last picked, you're wait listed everywhere, possibly in the 100s and even your "safety" may be getting full by then...
My question now is, what of you select a school that you're OOB at and have no preference as your #1 choice, and you get picked third in the lottery 5th. Will you be placed in the school until a child WITH preference is drawn (say at #10) and then you'll be kicked down your own list?
If this is the case, even if I'm drawn early, yet all of my top choices are likely to be filled by students with preference have I, so-to-speak, squandered an opportunity to guarantee myself a spot at a school that might have more preference-free slots? Because as it may take 500 draws to fill up my top 7 schools, but he time I get to number 8, isn't it now full?
I think of it this way. You have the same chance of getting in to school X if you place it as your only choice, or at the bottom of your list (assuming you don't get any of your higher picks). In terms of mechanics, it will be a two step process. First they conduct the lottery (As you say it's the luck of that draw that matters). Then they feed the lottery numbers and preferences into a computer program which figures out where you get in / are wait listed.
You have not "squandered an opportunity to guarantee myself a spot at a school that might have more preference-free slots? Because as it may take 500 draws to fill up my top 7 schools, but he time I get to number 8, isn't it now full?" - because the available seats at the school you listed at 8 are filled according the lottery numbers - giving preference to IB, kids with siblings etc. and eliminating kids with higher lottery numbers who have already been allocated a spot - but without other reference the rank order people gave the school on their list. It's a simple concept but proving quite difficult to explain.
Anonymous
12/15/2013 06:25
Subject: The list for where to apply in Common Lottery
Curious about how the lottery will handle preference. Both DCPS and charters allow sibling preference but only DCPS offers IB vs. proximity vs OOB. What I find a little sad is that year after year new DC families spend so much energy on the lottery (as they should) when most new spots at desirable schools will be taken by siblings of current students. There simply aren't enough quality, long term spots.
Anonymous
12/15/2013 04:58
Subject: The list for where to apply in Common Lottery
Anonymous wrote:Think I'm finally getting this, while 1:30 is correct in that ranking matters, what REALLY matters is the luck of your draw. If you're one of the first picks, you get in to one of your top choices. If you're one of the last picked, you're wait listed everywhere, possibly in the 100s and even your "safety" may be getting full by then...
My question now is, what of you select a school that you're OOB at and have no preference as your #1 choice, and you get picked third in the lottery 5th. Will you be placed in the school until a child WITH preference is drawn (say at #10) and then you'll be kicked down your own list?
If this is the case, even if I'm drawn early, yet all of my top choices are likely to be filled by students with preference have I, so-to-speak, squandered an opportunity to guarantee myself a spot at a school that might have more preference-free slots? Because as it may take 500 draws to fill up my top 7 schools, but he time I get to number 8, isn't it now full?
Sorry, that's confusing, should simply read: "you get picked third in the lottery"
Anonymous
12/15/2013 04:57
Subject: The list for where to apply in Common Lottery
Think I'm finally getting this, while 1:30 is correct in that ranking matters, what REALLY matters is the luck of your draw. If you're one of the first picks, you get in to one of your top choices. If you're one of the last picked, you're wait listed everywhere, possibly in the 100s and even your "safety" may be getting full by then...
My question now is, what of you select a school that you're OOB at and have no preference as your #1 choice, and you get picked third in the lottery 5th. Will you be placed in the school until a child WITH preference is drawn (say at #10) and then you'll be kicked down your own list?
If this is the case, even if I'm drawn early, yet all of my top choices are likely to be filled by students with preference have I, so-to-speak, squandered an opportunity to guarantee myself a spot at a school that might have more preference-free slots? Because as it may take 500 draws to fill up my top 7 schools, but he time I get to number 8, isn't it now full?
My question now is, what of you select a school that you're OOB at and have no preference as your #1 choice, and you get picked third in the lottery 5th. Will you be placed in the school until a child WITH preference is drawn (say at #10) and then you'll be kicked down your own list?
If this is the case, even if I'm drawn early, yet all of my top choices are likely to be filled by students with preference have I, so-to-speak, squandered an opportunity to guarantee myself a spot at a school that might have more preference-free slots? Because as it may take 500 draws to fill up my top 7 schools, but he time I get to number 8, isn't it now full?
Anonymous
12/15/2013 03:41
Subject: The list for where to apply in Common Lottery
Don't think the above is correct. Say you are applying for PK4 and say your top choices are the wotp ESs, but you are OOB. Say your IB school is Bancroft. You don't decrease your chances of getting in to Bancroft by placing it down your list of preferences - unless you get in to one of your higher placed preferences - in which case you give up your claim to a place at Bancroft. So order matters but not in the way the PP suggests. Key, you have to decide on your real order of preference before the lottery. Sounds easy, but previously you could enter a lot of lotteries and do you research in the spring once you saw what you had a chance of getting in to based on your lottery numbers. Now you are expected to do all the research and come up with a list preferences in the winter.
Anonymous
12/15/2013 01:30
Subject: The list for where to apply in Common Lottery
Anonymous wrote:Sorry, my reply came through in the quoted text. I called the Deputy Mayor for Education's office. They emphasized that there is no way to "game" the system by placing a less popular school high on your list. The best "strategy" for everyone is to list in order of true preference.
So glad that some are calling and getting accurate info. There is a lot of MISinformation early in this thread.
I spoke to one of the lead people at "Myschoolchoice.com" (or whatever the website is, don't have it in front of me right now) at the Ward 5 School fair, and I specifically spoke to her about the algorithim (sp?) (but I had a different question, still, we talked about it) and as I was getting ready to leave I asked her if she felt like people really understood how much the order you rank in does matter this year. She said they were doing everything they could on their part to try to emphasize that.
So if you haven't gotten the message yet, please understand this: the order matters TREMENDOUSLY this year. I would even go as far to say that if your 1st real choice is a popular school and you don't rank it 1 or 2, you probably have no chance of getting in. Because if I understand the algorithim correctly, the lottery will "favor" all #1 choices for a top school first, and not even move to #2 choices unless they don't fill the class.
It's possible I have that part wrong - if you're worried or confused you should call the myschoolchoice people and ask them. But if I were applying this year (which I'm not), I would research the hell out of as many schools as I thought I wanted, and be extremely thoughtful about my rankings.
Anonymous
12/14/2013 17:10
Subject: Re:The list for where to apply in Common Lottery
Anonymous wrote:So if my kid's lottery # is picked, his #1 is IT, but they just filled their spots, will he be #1 on their waitlist and admitted in school #2 if there is space?
Yes. And if there's no room at #2, he will be added to the end of the wait list and then entered at choice #3, and so on. This seems to be the general consensus on how this works.
Anonymous
12/14/2013 17:02
Subject: Re:The list for where to apply in Common Lottery
dcmom wrote:Anonymous wrote:So if my kid's lottery # is picked, his #1 is IT, but they just filled their spots, will he be #1 on their waitlist and admitted in school #2 if there is space?
Yes, he would be placed on the wait list for IT (at whatever # they are up to on the wait list at that point), and be admitted to #2 if there is space. If not, then wait listed at #2, and admitted at #3 if there is space…. and so on down the line.
I'm not sure why you ask whether he would be #1 on the wait list. That would only happen in the very rare instance that he was the very first person whose lottery # came up after all the slots were filled for the grade.
That's what I meant when I said they "just filled their spots"