A lot - maybe not for the big DC privates where wealth prevails, but economic downturn especially with job loss/lay offs/DOGE will impact schools for a decade. Lots of private schools/colleges are closing across the country.

I think once kids are enrolled in a school it becomes a fairly inelastic good, ie families will try to find a way to pay the tuition. My spouse’s coworker’s contract was not renewed and they still kept their 3 kids in a Big3 private. Families don’t want to uproot their kids just because theyre having a short employment disruption. I think it would most affect enrollment, especially smaller schools with rolling admission who often take disaffected public school families (ie a family who is not happy with how things are going at their local public, so they’re willing to try a private they can easily get into next fall). I think there’s always plenty of rich families with fully funded 529s to fill the waitlists of the Big3.

Well the thing is the following. A lot of rich parents work in recession proof sectors like law firms for big corporations, hospitals, education etc. Other families receive money from the grand parents pensions which is also more or less recession proof. However donations might go down, and in that case the school may want to accept richer families that can donate more. So yes, ultimately a recession might affect admissions, but in such a way they might not be noticeable.

Anonymous wrote:A lot of grandparents with more money than they can spend in their lifetime are paying the tuition. So a parent getting laid off doesn't always mean pulling a kid from private school, unless of course the family moves for a new job.

Honestly, this. We are in this situation. Our parents pay about 25% of tuition, but *could* pay the whole thing, and would step in and do so if something prevented us from paying (job loss, severe illness/injury, death) so that our kid would not have to change schools.

A lot of grandparents with more money than they can spend in their lifetime are paying the tuition. So a parent getting laid off doesn't always mean pulling a kid from private school, unless of course the family moves for a new job.

My midwestern private school alma matter was impacted by the Great Recession. Graduating class size the few years after ‘08 was 90-95% the typical size.

The schools in this area all have WL's -- just so much wealth and so many parents focused on privates as elite or some sense of quality of life or wanting more attn for their kids - the economy impacts having fewer families who might have applied who may be more stretched but the schools are just fine.

Sometimes there is an impact among high level government and government contract families.

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:The most expensive schools will be even less diverse as only the wealthy will be able to afford the tuition and annual tuition increases. Not that that is a bad thing for most wealthy families or, by extension, the schools. That’s where they are already headed.

It's this. Our small private has not been impacted over the past couple years with impacts via Trump/DOGE etc and in fact our wait list has increased. There will always be those who can afford it, but the impacts will be less diversity.

There is no "small private" in the DMV that is considered a top tier school and highly in demand with waitlists. Just so we're clear. The ones that are competitive - Sidwell, GDS, Prep, Holton, and that class of schools do not contain any small privates.

Disagree. I think there are many schools that are both small and top tier in the DMV. To name a few I would consider Maret, WIS, Green Acres, and Primary Day are all small top tier private school that all have large waitlists (and rejections).

It seems unlikely to me that WIS will see too much of an impact. Not sure about the other schools on that list.

Yes, the PP said that these small top tier privates were seeing an increase in the number on their waitlist. A respondent said there were no highly in demand small top tier schools. So I was listing a few. All those that I named are small in demand top tier schools with thick waitlists.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The most expensive schools will be even less diverse as only the wealthy will be able to afford the tuition and annual tuition increases. Not that that is a bad thing for most wealthy families or, by extension, the schools. That’s where they are already headed.

It's this. Our small private has not been impacted over the past couple years with impacts via Trump/DOGE etc and in fact our wait list has increased. There will always be those who can afford it, but the impacts will be less diversity.

There is no "small private" in the DMV that is considered a top tier school and highly in demand with waitlists. Just so we're clear. The ones that are competitive - Sidwell, GDS, Prep, Holton, and that class of schools do not contain any small privates.

Disagree. I think there are many schools that are both small and top tier in the DMV. To name a few I would consider Maret, WIS, Green Acres, and Primary Day are all small top tier private school that all have large waitlists (and rejections).

It seems unlikely to me that WIS will see too much of an impact. Not sure about the other schools on that list.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The most expensive schools will be even less diverse as only the wealthy will be able to afford the tuition and annual tuition increases. Not that that is a bad thing for most wealthy families or, by extension, the schools. That’s where they are already headed.

It's this. Our small private has not been impacted over the past couple years with impacts via Trump/DOGE etc and in fact our wait list has increased. There will always be those who can afford it, but the impacts will be less diversity.

There is no "small private" in the DMV that is considered a top tier school and highly in demand with waitlists. Just so we're clear. The ones that are competitive - Sidwell, GDS, Prep, Holton, and that class of schools do not contain any small privates.

Disagree. I think there are many schools that are both small and top tier in the DMV. To name a few I would consider Maret, WIS, Green Acres, and Primary Day are all small top tier private school that all have large waitlists (and rejections).