(Those are the numbers after someone at fcps manipulated the published scenarios to move out Walney Oaks.)

Bringing this over from the now-locked thread. Here are FCPS's estimates of 2025-26 students enrollments based on the latest updates yesterday afternoon to revised Scenarios 1 and 2:

Scenario 1:

Lake Braddock 2922
West Springfield 2848
Oakton 2589
West Potomac 2558
Robinson 2549
Woodson 2471
Langley 2416
Fairfax 2344
Chantilly 2305
Madison 2227
Edison 2197
Justice 2147
Hayfield 2139
TJHSST 2125
McLean 2123
Centreville 2119
Westfield 2083
Herndon 2061
Marshall 2045
South County 2042
Falls Church 2035
South Lakes 2033
Annandale 2002
Skyview 1900
Mount Vernon 1788
Lewis 1537


Scenario 2:

Lake Braddock 2922
West Springfield 2848
Oakton 2721
West Potomac 2558
Robinson 2549
Woodson 2471
Langley 2416
Chantilly 2358
Fairfax 2344
Madison 2227
Edison 2197
Justice 2147
Hayfield 2139
TJHSST 2125
McLean 2123
Centreville 2119
Westfield 2083
Herndon 2061
Marshall 2045
South County 2042
Falls Church 2035
Annandale 2002
South Lakes 1984
Mount Vernon 1788
Skyview 1760
Lewis 1537

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Crossfield families are going to feel betrayed in the not-too-distant future when Skyview turns out to be a really good school and their kids lost out on going to Carson and there, only to end up at South Lakes when Oakton is overcrowded even more. They'll be the new sacrificial lambs to get the SLHS scores back up.

The people who put out the short-term threats to their boundaries live to see another day. The whole School Board is up for re-election next year, so no one can even say for sure there will be another county-wide review in 2030.

Skyview may be OK but it’s not going to have the same broad appeal as Oakton, even if some South Lakes and Westfield families prefer it and Oak Hill can accept it.

You mean very low FARMS

I don't especially want my child at a high FARMS school, but I think it is a bonus to have a nice mix of kids Double bonus for being a nearby school that is a real community.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Crossfield families are going to feel betrayed in the not-too-distant future when Skyview turns out to be a really good school and their kids lost out on going to Carson and there, only to end up at South Lakes when Oakton is overcrowded even more. They'll be the new sacrificial lambs to get the SLHS scores back up.

At which point we get to pay to bus them past Fox Mill to get to SLHS.

Be careful what you wish for.

Anonymous wrote:FCPS skyview boundary page: https://www.fcps.edu/about-fcps/maps/boundary-adjustments-information/skyview-high-school-and-western-pyramids-boundary

Boundary explorer at https://fcpswesternboundary.org/

Revised Scenario 1: Balance Utilization and Minimize Disruption
Emphasizes stable assignments and minimal disruption to existing boundaries while balancing utilization.

Revised Scenario 2: Balance Utilization and Align Feeder Patterns
Takes an approach that prioritizes feeder pattern alignment and current utilization conditions while remaining responsive to community feedback.

In both scenarios, McNair, Floris, Oak Hill and Coates ES's are going to Skyview. Small portions in Brookfield, Cub Run and Bull Run ES's are changed to Bull Run.

In scenario 1: half of franklin farm (Crossfield) is going to Skyview, in scenario 2, Crossfield stays at Oakton in full.

You are wrong about the bolded. That's not Franklin Farm, that's several other neighborhoods, one of which is adjacent to Franklin Farm, but not part of it.

Meren posted on Facebook and said she is reviewing. She also said it will go through one more round of revisions before being voted on......

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What you’re missing is that in scenario 2 revised, Oak Hill is split between Skyview and Chantilly because part of Franklin farm south of Franklin farm road is split, which is a tremendous, steaming load BS.

Franklin Farm is being split along FFX parkway anyway. Scenario 2 is splitting them 3 ways? This is why we need to talk about the scenarios.

Franklin Farm has been split by the Parkway for thirty years. The west side has attended Oak Hill that long, as well. They have never been at Crossfield.

Franklin Farm has two pools. One is on east side of pkway and one on the west side. So kind of two major sections. Franklin Farm at Oak Hill lives on both sides of Franklin Farm Rd between the parkway and Centreville Rd. One portion lives right across from Franklin Middle. That part is kept at Chantilly in one of the scenarios. I would guess that while they might be happy to stay at Chantilly, they might prefer to stay with their Oak Hill friends. I am guessing that the consultants did this because they were told to "freeze walkers."

Just a guess.

What does freeze walkers mean?

Chantilly HS sucks and is undeserving of any high SES students from the Oak Hill ES area!

Freeze the walker means freeze the walker to Franklin Middle. The area south of Franklin Farm Road is so close to Franklin Middle school that zoning them to Carson would increase their commute time. I mean it is not going to be a lot differneces in commute time but that might be a concern.

walker to Franklin vs 1.6 miles to Carson.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Centreville's FARMs percentile will go down losing that apartment building.

Chatnilly's rates will go down losing that particular section of Brookfield.

Westfield's will likely go up. Trying to fill up a school by moving only mostly low income areas into is egregious. If it was a boundary that just made sense geographically, that would be different.

But it is obviously gerrymandered around certain areas and neighborhoods. Who is the SB member for Westfield?

Seema Dixit

Let me guess, her neighborhood schools will not be weakened by these changes.

They will be lower FARMs.

Her area was rezoned to Westfield in two out of 3 previous scenarios. Now its magically not in any scenario. Her ES Bull Run is a split feeder.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Centreville's FARMs percentile will go down losing that apartment building.

Chatnilly's rates will go down losing that particular section of Brookfield.

Westfield's will likely go up. Trying to fill up a school by moving only mostly low income areas into is egregious. If it was a boundary that just made sense geographically, that would be different.

But it is obviously gerrymandered around certain areas and neighborhoods. Who is the SB member for Westfield?

Seema Dixit

Let me guess, her neighborhood schools will not be weakened by these changes.

They will be lower FARMs.

meren made a post basically saying maps are up and i will review them. didn’t seem immediately concerned to lose fox mill

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Crossfield families are going to feel betrayed in the not-too-distant future when Skyview turns out to be a really good school and their kids lost out on going to Carson and there, only to end up at South Lakes when Oakton is overcrowded even more. They'll be the new sacrificial lambs to get the SLHS scores back up.

At which point we get to pay to bus them past Fox Mill to get to SLHS.

i don’t think that’s right. crossfield is east of fox mill. if you moved crossfield to skyview they would go past fox mill but they won’t going to SLHS. if you look at a map there is zero reason they should be at oakton. they didn’t want skyview so looks like they’ll get south lakes

Anonymous wrote:I think Crossfield families are going to feel betrayed in the not-too-distant future when Skyview turns out to be a really good school and their kids lost out on going to Carson and there, only to end up at South Lakes when Oakton is overcrowded even more. They'll be the new sacrificial lambs to get the SLHS scores back up.

At which point we get to pay to bus them past Fox Mill to get to SLHS.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Centreville's FARMs percentile will go down losing that apartment building.

Chatnilly's rates will go down losing that particular section of Brookfield.

Westfield's will likely go up. Trying to fill up a school by moving only mostly low income areas into is egregious. If it was a boundary that just made sense geographically, that would be different.

But it is obviously gerrymandered around certain areas and neighborhoods. Who is the SB member for Westfield?

Seema Dixit

Let me guess, her neighborhood schools will not be weakened by these changes.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What you’re missing is that in scenario 2 revised, Oak Hill is split between Skyview and Chantilly because part of Franklin farm south of Franklin farm road is split, which is a tremendous, steaming load BS.

Franklin Farm is being split along FFX parkway anyway. Scenario 2 is splitting them 3 ways? This is why we need to talk about the scenarios.

Franklin Farm has been split by the Parkway for thirty years. The west side has attended Oak Hill that long, as well. They have never been at Crossfield.

Franklin Farm has two pools. One is on east side of pkway and one on the west side. So kind of two major sections. Franklin Farm at Oak Hill lives on both sides of Franklin Farm Rd between the parkway and Centreville Rd. One portion lives right across from Franklin Middle. That part is kept at Chantilly in one of the scenarios. I would guess that while they might be happy to stay at Chantilly, they might prefer to stay with their Oak Hill friends. I am guessing that the consultants did this because they were told to "freeze walkers."

Just a guess.

What does freeze walkers mean?

Chantilly HS sucks and is undeserving of any high SES students from the Oak Hill ES area!

Freeze the walker means freeze the walker to Franklin Middle. The area south of Franklin Farm Road is so close to Franklin Middle school that zoning them to Carson would increase their commute time. I mean it is not going to be a lot differneces in commute time but that might be a concern.

Anonymous wrote:I think Crossfield families are going to feel betrayed in the not-too-distant future when Skyview turns out to be a really good school and their kids lost out on going to Carson and there, only to end up at South Lakes when Oakton is overcrowded even more. They'll be the new sacrificial lambs to get the SLHS scores back up.

The people who put out the short-term threats to their boundaries live to see another day. The whole School Board is up for re-election next year, so no one can even say for sure there will be another county-wide review in 2030.

Skyview may be OK but it’s not going to have the same broad appeal as Oakton, even if some South Lakes and Westfield families prefer it and Oak Hill can accept it.