Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not that the truth matters to the delusional people of this forum, but the main schism in Putin's administration is over hardliners' push to use tactical nukes in Ukraine. Highly influential longtime insiders like Karaganov, whom most of you have probably never heard of, are advocating ending the war by making an example of Ukraine so Europeans think twice about continuing their campaign against Russia. Putin is the one counseling restraint because, lawyer that he is, he actually believes in observing the treaties on non-use of nukes and is worried about the precedent that using nukes could set for the ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts that Russia has an interest in. Anyone who cares about Ukrainians had better be rooting for Putin to stay in power because any would-be replacement would be much further to the right than he is.

Use of a tactical nuke would be the desperation move showing Russia lost. What's the value in conquering a devastated irradiated wasteland of your own making? It doesn't even serve as a "buffer" because NATO weapons have the range to fly straight over Ukraine. Russia's "hardliners" are clearly idiots who need some sense slapped into them. I don't know why Putin doesn't just have them served some polonium tea or "fall out of windows" the way he does to journalists, critics, dissidents and other political opponents.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not that the truth matters to the delusional people of this forum, but the main schism in Putin's administration is over hardliners' push to use tactical nukes in Ukraine. Highly influential longtime insiders like Karaganov, whom most of you have probably never heard of, are advocating ending the war by making an example of Ukraine so Europeans think twice about continuing their campaign against Russia. Putin is the one counseling restraint because, lawyer that he is, he actually believes in observing the treaties on non-use of nukes and is worried about the precedent that using nukes could set for the ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts that Russia has an interest in. Anyone who cares about Ukrainians had better be rooting for Putin to stay in power because any would-be replacement would be much further to the right than he is.

Use of a tactical nuke would be the desperation move showing Russia lost. What's the value in conquering a devastated irradiated wasteland of your own making? It doesn't even serve as a "buffer" because NATO weapons have the range to fly straight over Ukraine. Russia's "hardliners" are clearly idiots who need some sense slapped into them. I don't know why Putin doesn't just have them served some polonium tea or "fall out of windows" the way he does to journalists, critics, dissidents and other political opponents.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can you all link to articles, please? I want to indulge in some wishful thinking as well...

I can see why Putin is scared for his life, and worried about a coup, more than ever before. His war of choice is really hitting home this year, and he has no extra reserves to expend in Ukraine other than poorly equipped and unmotivated manpower. Ukraine is resisting handsomely because of their rapidly evolving drone tech that no one saw coming. A year ago, we were hashing out options for a Ukraine surrender.

If not for the fact that I know Americans are really this propagandized, I would think this was a poorly written troll. Ukraine has been destroyed for a generation, maybe two. There is no resistance beyond that needed to enable Zelenskyy to keep robbing the country blind.

Anonymous wrote:Not that the truth matters to the delusional people of this forum, but the main schism in Putin's administration is over hardliners' push to use tactical nukes in Ukraine. Highly influential longtime insiders like Karaganov, whom most of you have probably never heard of, are advocating ending the war by making an example of Ukraine so Europeans think twice about continuing their campaign against Russia. Putin is the one counseling restraint because, lawyer that he is, he actually believes in observing the treaties on non-use of nukes and is worried about the precedent that using nukes could set for the ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts that Russia has an interest in. Anyone who cares about Ukrainians had better be rooting for Putin to stay in power because any would-be replacement would be much further to the right than he is.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia is a huge country with literally more landmass than any other country in the world. It spans at least two continents, including both Europe and Asia. Its capital is Moscow, and its population exceeds 140 million

And? Is there a point here besides obvious facts I learned in fourth grade?

It is impossible to understand the country with an appreciation for what makes it unique

You didn't say anything we didn't know. DCUM tends to be highly educated and traveled, and many of us are from Europe, Asia or other parts of the world, where governments educate their kids better than here.

If we’re listing random facts…
Russia is very big, but with a lot of land that is not particularly usable.
Much of Russia is very cold and/or remote.
Russia has a lot of natural resources but a relatively under developed manufacturing sector making it relatively dependent on foreign imports to maintain a modern western standard of living
Russia has a large population to use for cannon fodder but also a low birth rate and high emigration, making the cannon fodder strategy not particularly viable as a long term strategy.
Russia has never had a functioning democracy and its population doesn’t really expect one; kleptocracy has been the norm dating back at least 100 years and is largely expected so long as it’s kept within somewhat reasonable bounds
The national vibe is generally cynicism and self interest

I don’t think Russia is set for revolution. It’s just not really in their character. They are too cynical and pessimistic to make good revolutionaries. I know they had a pretty famous revolution, but that was primarily due to WWI putting a lot of guns in the hands of a lot of really irritated peasants and workers. I guess it’s possible that people returning from Ukraine will be similarly irritated but I doubt it.

I don’t see any really obvious exit ramps here. I think that if there is an exit ramp, it involves Putin declaring victory and everyone pretending that’s accurate with an effort to return to a sort of stagflation normalcy with elites continuing to rob the country and stash money abroad. When Putin dies, there might be room for a moderate reformer aka Krushchev or Gorbachev. But I don’t think we’ll see another move to cozy up to the west like we did for a brief period in the 90s. Both sides feel burned by that effort.

I don’t think they have long term affinity with the Chinese either — Russians think they are way better than Chinese and Chinese think they are way better than Slavs so there’s no a long term special relationship there.

Anonymous wrote:
This is channel is interesting if you want to get a sense of what the Russian version of the hard right has to say:

https://www.youtube.com/@russianmediamonitor

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
This is channel is interesting if you want to get a sense of what the Russian version of the hard right has to say:

https://www.youtube.com/@russianmediamonitor

FYI I'm 10:50 -- I posted about Karaganov and the Russian hard right advocating nukes, but I did NOT post this link nor do I endorse this channel.

Anonymous wrote:
This is channel is interesting if you want to get a sense of what the Russian version of the hard right has to say:

https://www.youtube.com/@russianmediamonitor

Anonymous wrote:I read that Putin is increasingly concerned about a coup. Wouldn't it be great if there was a coup and whoever kicked Putin to the curb released all the dirt he's had on Trump, and that Epstein was a Russian operative? And how Putin helped Trump rig elections? Would be so great.

Anonymous wrote:I read that Putin is increasingly concerned about a coup. Wouldn't it be great if there was a coup and whoever kicked Putin to the curb released all the dirt he's had on Trump, and that Epstein was a Russian operative? And how Putin helped Trump rig elections? Would be so great.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can you all link to articles, please? I want to indulge in some wishful thinking as well...

I can see why Putin is scared for his life, and worried about a coup, more than ever before. His war of choice is really hitting home this year, and he has no extra reserves to expend in Ukraine other than poorly equipped and unmotivated manpower. Ukraine is resisting handsomely because of their rapidly evolving drone tech that no one saw coming. A year ago, we were hashing out options for a Ukraine surrender.

If not for the fact that I know Americans are really this propagandized, I would think this was a poorly written troll. Ukraine has been destroyed for a generation, maybe two. There is no resistance beyond that needed to enable Zelenskyy to keep robbing the country blind.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can you all link to articles, please? I want to indulge in some wishful thinking as well...

I can see why Putin is scared for his life, and worried about a coup, more than ever before. His war of choice is really hitting home this year, and he has no extra reserves to expend in Ukraine other than poorly equipped and unmotivated manpower. Ukraine is resisting handsomely because of their rapidly evolving drone tech that no one saw coming. A year ago, we were hashing out options for a Ukraine surrender.

If not for the fact that I know Americans are really this propagandized, I would think this was a poorly written troll. Ukraine has been destroyed for a generation, maybe two. There is no resistance beyond that needed to enable Zelenskyy to keep robbing the country blind.