Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 14:18     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I'll play. K. Happy with our current school so I only lotteried for true reaches that I'd actually leave I for: Ross and Ludlow-Taylor.


Those seem to be really odd choices. Ludlow is not worth a commute.


It is if you take middle into account and really don't want to move.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 14:15     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
First grader and PK-4. Brent or bust. (Well, Brent or stay at our current, acceptable school.)

Planning to move to Maryland before middle. No, we can't move yet.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 14:14     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:5th:

Oyster
Mundo Verde Cook
Basis
Mundo Verde Calle 8

Would probably not move after the school year starts.


Oyster - 10%
Mundo Verde Cook - 37%
Basis - 10%
Mundo Verde Calle 8 - 0%
Nothing - 43%
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 14:03     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:OP here with a clarification: I am ONLY taking into account historical data, an average of the past five years.

Things I am NOT taking into account:

Trends
Housing prices
Changes to feeder patterns
Budgets
Projected enrollments
Modernizations
Private schools
Seats offered for this year (I am not aware of how that data is made available at this stage).

I would have to factor in DCI feeder rights if I had a person with DCI on their 6th grade list but I'd have to learn about it first

If someone has comments about any of the above factors, or any other factors, for any specific lists, feel free to respond to my responses with that info and how you'd adjust the chances based on that.

Now - back to predictions!


Seats offered is not public. It's not even decided yet.

I don't think there are significant feeder and boundary changes for this year. But in years where there are a lot of changes simultaneously, like the every 10 years boundary review or a new school like MacArthur opens, you would need to think about it.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 13:59     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
OP here with a clarification: I am ONLY taking into account historical data, an average of the past five years.

Things I am NOT taking into account:

Trends
Housing prices
Changes to feeder patterns
Budgets
Projected enrollments
Modernizations
Private schools
Seats offered for this year (I am not aware of how that data is made available at this stage).

I would have to factor in DCI feeder rights if I had a person with DCI on their 6th grade list but I'd have to learn about it first

If someone has comments about any of the above factors, or any other factors, for any specific lists, feel free to respond to my responses with that info and how you'd adjust the chances based on that.

Now - back to predictions!
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 13:55     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Oh please. Claude could never. Has OP considered the impact of upcoming renovations and feeder pattern changes? Improvements in middle schools leading to elementary lottery interest? Different patterns for Montessori vs not? DCI feeder allocations?

Personally I would not go back 5 years. This landscape has changed a lot and it would probably be more accurate to use just the last 4 years.


OP is just trying to have some fun on a Friday and you're over here making feature requests.

But I agree, Claude could never.


Claude code does all the front end I never bothered to learn, it’s pretty good for stuff like this if you know the analyses you want to do.

Not so good at telling you which analyses to perform, I’ll say.


If you can't do it without Claude, how are you able to assess if the outputs are actually any good?


Front end is interface/UI. I test the product like I would any other, unit tests on up with deterministic outputs. For me it’s just a fancy wrapper for analyses I’d normally have in a script.


Fair enough, but that's a far cry from doing the actual analysis.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 13:52     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:6th

Hardy
Deal

No pref

Move is a possibility


OP here:

Hardy - 25%
Deal - 0%
Nothing - 75%
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 13:45     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:I'll play. K. Happy with our current school so I only lotteried for true reaches that I'd actually leave I for: Ross and Ludlow-Taylor.


Those seem to be really odd choices. Ludlow is not worth a commute.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 13:43     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Oh please. Claude could never. Has OP considered the impact of upcoming renovations and feeder pattern changes? Improvements in middle schools leading to elementary lottery interest? Different patterns for Montessori vs not? DCI feeder allocations?

Personally I would not go back 5 years. This landscape has changed a lot and it would probably be more accurate to use just the last 4 years.


OP is just trying to have some fun on a Friday and you're over here making feature requests.

But I agree, Claude could never.


Claude code does all the front end I never bothered to learn, it’s pretty good for stuff like this if you know the analyses you want to do.

Not so good at telling you which analyses to perform, I’ll say.


If you can't do it without Claude, how are you able to assess if the outputs are actually any good?


Front end is interface/UI. I test the product like I would any other, unit tests on up with deterministic outputs. For me it’s just a fancy wrapper for analyses I’d normally have in a script.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 13:37     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:If the Claude-boosters want a project, how about scraping data from dcpsbudget.com? Calculate the projected enrollment increase for each school relative to last year, for each grade. Produce a table that lists only the grades expecting an increase or decrease of 5 or more students, organized by school.


Oh and compare it to OSSE enrollment audit data as well. Seriously, if you can do this it would be awesome.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 13:30     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
If the Claude-boosters want a project, how about scraping data from dcpsbudget.com? Calculate the projected enrollment increase for each school relative to last year, for each grade. Produce a table that lists only the grades expecting an increase or decrease of 5 or more students, organized by school.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 13:21     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:Claude could totally.


Go for it, then. It would be interesting to see how the results differ.

I think what you get from DCUM, sometimes, is access to information about specific schools that isn't public in any organized way. Like decisions of a principal that have been announced to a school but not yet in writing on the Internet. When I was a PTO leader I knew, for example, that our school would be adding an additional K classroom so lottery chances were very good. Or like how I know who in my kid's 4th grade class is a sibling at Latin and BASIS, so I know how many vacancies there will be in 5th. It's not something any bot could obtain.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 13:20     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
OP: Are you taking into account how many lottery spots the schools are actually listing this year? Have they published that anywhere yet?Because that affects the odds a lot.

Our elementary school is going from offering 60-70 new lottery seats outside of ECE in the lottery the past few years to... 10.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 13:15     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
This is a super fun thread! Thanks, OP!

I’ll play!

5th:
- Latin 2nd st
- Latin cooper
- Basis

Would move after school starts
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 13:03     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
I'll play. K. Happy with our current school so I only lotteried for true reaches that I'd actually leave for: Ross and Ludlow-Taylor.