Anonymous wrote:The Dow has been levitating on AI hopium for a very long time. P/E ratios are completely out of whack from historical norms. I recall 2007/8 when everyone said housing prices never go down. And then they did and the whole house of cards collapsed.

Who knows whether the war with Iran will be the catalyst this time. But we are well overdue for a reality check. It is never different this time. From the tulip bubble in the 1600s to today, markets get irrationally frothy and always collapse eventually.

There was a step change in PE ratios after the 90s, which was a result of how the world changed with the internet.

I would argue the change from AI will be even bigger


https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart

The Dow has been levitating on AI hopium for a very long time. P/E ratios are completely out of whack from historical norms. I recall 2007/8 when everyone said housing prices never go down. And then they did and the whole house of cards collapsed.

Who knows whether the war with Iran will be the catalyst this time. But we are well overdue for a reality check. It is never different this time. From the tulip bubble in the 1600s to today, markets get irrationally frothy and always collapse eventually.

Anonymous wrote:While everyone is distracted with WW3, I keep hearing rumblings of a "private credit" event worse than 2008 subprime event. Buyer beware!

Private credit market simply is still too small for an event like 2008. Good riddance is it slowly slinks away.

Anonymous wrote:While everyone is distracted with WW3, I keep hearing rumblings of a "private credit" event worse than 2008 subprime event. Buyer beware!

Limits withdrawals.

History doesn’t rhyme, it alliterates.

Bear Stearns
Blackrock

https://www.reuters.com/business/blackrock-limits-withdrawals-private-credit-fund-redemptions-mount-2026-03-06/

We have had three great +15% years in a row. Very rare. A fourth usually is negative. That said, the U.S. really is the only country to invest in safely. There is not enough expectation of growth and stable currency elseware. Our service industries keep growing.

While everyone is distracted with WW3, I keep hearing rumblings of a "private credit" event worse than 2008 subprime event. Buyer beware!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My guess is around 47k, but I will continue to DCA

Me too. It's what I've done for every other crash, and it's worked out fine. Money I need in the nearterm (529 plan for high schooler, emergency fund) is already in cash equivalents, and I have a job, so it doesn't matter.

Unfortunately, not everyone understands that is exactly what you need to do. If you need it in next 2-3 years, it should be in cash equivalents. Otherwise let it ride the market and don't check too often and DCA in and take advantage of the lower prices.

Yes. That’s a typical investing mistake - sell low. There is no catastrophic event on the market right now. US , Saudi Arabia and China will benefit big time from this war and will end it if things go ugly
My portfolio is only 2% down and I’ll only sell if it goes 7% down (each individual stock is set to sell if it drops below 7% of purchase price).
Otherwise, I just DCA each month

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My guess is around 47k, but I will continue to DCA

Me too. It's what I've done for every other crash, and it's worked out fine. Money I need in the nearterm (529 plan for high schooler, emergency fund) is already in cash equivalents, and I have a job, so it doesn't matter.

Unfortunately, not everyone understands that is exactly what you need to do. If you need it in next 2-3 years, it should be in cash equivalents. Otherwise let it ride the market and don't check too often and DCA in and take advantage of the lower prices.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the war last longer than 6 months yes

We were at war for 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan and the market did great.

Yes, but those wars didn’t threaten world oil supply. Without oil, no modern economy works. And, with high oil prices, the prices of all goods inflate. And as prices inflate, so do interest rates. And, as interest rates inflate, the present value of future income falls. And, lower earnings PV equals lower stock prices. If the Administration cannot secure the world’s oil supply and get oil prices down, the market WILL tank.

I think you are unaware who will make MAD money from Iranian and Gulf oil leaving the market.

This helps Trumps buddies, and his handlers.



This isn’t the 70s.

Yep, defense cyber security some renewables stocks were growing whole last week. On Friday green leafs appeared in software, airlines, some developing countries and high quality dividend stocks.
This is a regulated crisis which won’t have as much impact as prior ones

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the war last longer than 6 months yes

We were at war for 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan and the market did great.

Yes, but those wars didn’t threaten world oil supply. Without oil, no modern economy works. And, with high oil prices, the prices of all goods inflate. And as prices inflate, so do interest rates. And, as interest rates inflate, the present value of future income falls. And, lower earnings PV equals lower stock prices. If the Administration cannot secure the world’s oil supply and get oil prices down, the market WILL tank.

The stock market is propelled by tech companies, their data centers and software and are way less dependent on oil inputs.

Energy to power data centers is the only crux, but it’s easier to switch to renewables or nuclear (and look how Microsoft is building a nuclear plant) for data centers, than retooling a smelter or plane to run on electricity.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the war last longer than 6 months yes

We were at war for 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan and the market did great.

Yes, but those wars didn’t threaten world oil supply. Without oil, no modern economy works. And, with high oil prices, the prices of all goods inflate. And as prices inflate, so do interest rates. And, as interest rates inflate, the present value of future income falls. And, lower earnings PV equals lower stock prices. If the Administration cannot secure the world’s oil supply and get oil prices down, the market WILL tank.

I think you are unaware who will make MAD money from Iranian and Gulf oil leaving the market.

This helps Trumps buddies, and his handlers.



This isn’t the 70s.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the war last longer than 6 months yes

We were at war for 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan and the market did great.

Yes, but those wars didn’t threaten world oil supply. Without oil, no modern economy works. And, with high oil prices, the prices of all goods inflate. And as prices inflate, so do interest rates. And, as interest rates inflate, the present value of future income falls. And, lower earnings PV equals lower stock prices. If the Administration cannot secure the world’s oil supply and get oil prices down, the market WILL tank.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Folks pay attention to the credit market. It's another quite crisis unfolded

Duh The Fed had been handing cash with a bazouka post COVID. And now the new Fed Chair an even greater fan of Wall Street will hand over the cash machine to Wall Street so they can print as much money as they need. So ridiculous.

What are you talking about? The Fed had nothing to do with COVID funds. That’s Congress. The Fed controls interest rates. While lower interest rates help induce more borrowing, it’s up to lending institutions and investors to vet borrowers.

It will def go below 40000 because I don't think folks realize yet how the conflict that has recently started is extremely complicated with various interests and differences on everything from culture to religion etc.

I think the market right now is acting as if the best case scenario of a quick resolution is the likely outcome.

And there is also the hubris and arrogance of always downplaying a down market by pointing out to history.

I don't know I think the market is a reflection of our complaisance, arrogance and hubris.

Dow at 52000 on Dec 31 2026. I foresee a decade of sub 10% year after year of market return due to population aging, workers shortage in critical industries, less jobs available overall, universities and colleges closing and merging due to lower and lower enrollment, cut in the education sector etc etc

The era of 10%+ growth is over for a long time