Anonymous wrote:The mean is not the most trust worthy of descriptive statistics, it is easily influenced by outliers. The mode or median would give us a far better idea of what scores looked like. We know 3/4 of the kids in-pool are accepted into AAP and all of those kids, in the report that you have, scored 132 or higher on the exams given.
The stats you are using are older, I think close to 10 years old now. The in-pool test score today from a good number of schools is in the high 130’s to the mid 140’s. The parent referal scores from those schools are going to be in the 130s. That is true for at least three pyramids, McLean, Langley, and Oakton. I would not be surprised if the scores from Madison and Chantilly are in the high 130s to low 140s.
The 118 and 120s we hear about are outliers and outliers drive down the mean. I would guess the kids not in-pool today were more likely to be in the 125-135 range on their test scores, although we have pretty much zero data from the new exam to speculate about.
That said, a kid coming from a private school is likely to get into AAP with a WISC in the 129 range. That is not a score that is going to get an FCPS student during the first round or on appeal. A 129 is a great score but it is not a score that gets you into AAP in FCPS without some explanation or extenuating circumstances.
The screener tests are easily prepped. A lot of kids have very inflated scores due to prep, but they're not true 99th percentile kids. Fairfax is not that special and does not have 10x the number of statistically expected gifted kids. Most of the 132+ on CogAT/NGAT kids would have IQs in the 120s if they were tested with the WISC.
Or, to put things a different way, FCPS has around 2000 kids per grade level in AAP. They also have around 800 kids earn National merit commended and NMSF combined. This is after poaching the top kids from Loudoun, Arlington, etc. So, maybe 700 of those kids are true FCPS kids. Probably 100 of those were deemed "not good enough" for AAP (like my DD, who was a NMSF but not AAP worthy). So, let's assume that around 600 former AAP kids earn a national merit award. That's set at the national 97th percentile. This means that around 70% of the former AAP kids are not even in the national top 3%, even with all of the AAP programming and all of the PSAT prep.
A 129 WISC would put OP's kid above the median in AAP if they IQ tested all of the kids. But I agree that it's not a score that gets one into AAP, since they aren't especially focused on test scores.