At our HS, two students who got in RD were the ones who applied ED and got deferred.

My unhooked wanted Yale or Brown. Applied Yale SCEA due to wanting to see all options in March including merit offers elsewhere. They were deferred and eventually rejected at Yale. Got into Brown during RD amongst other top schools.

ED dramatically increases your chances outside of HYPSM at T20 schools. If you are borderline at these schools, ED would increase your chances 3-4x.

Anonymous wrote:I would not send an early app to the SCEA schools if unhooked - donor, athlete, first generation and so on. Save those apps for RD.

For unhooked, choose a different school besides HYPS in the early round.

In RD, things tend to be very difficult. Both Vanderbilt and Duke are below 4 percent. Penn and Cornell are below 6 percent. And so on.

What?? Cornell was 10% 2 yrs ago, the lates data is 8.9% inclusive of ED and RD, class of 2029, up from prior year 8.4%.

Duke is under 5% overall, not under 4%. Duke Pratt (Engin) is also just under 5%.
Penn overall is also under 5%, Penn RD is under 4%. Penn SEAS overall is 3%, RD is 2%.

Vanderbilt is also just under 5% (4.7%) overall with TWO ED rounds. Not comparable to top schools with two ED rounds.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Very common if oversubscribed major.

+1 1580 SAT, 4.0 gpa, 4.92 gpa from a magnet. CS major. Shut out 5 of the 6 T20, wait listed for 1. Ended up at state flagship with merit.

Similar outcome, 1580 SAT, 3.94 ugpa, shut out of T25, business major.

Anonymous wrote:Valedictorians and salutatorians can get shut out too, if they don’t do REA anywhere, don’t get into their ED school, and then apply to a bunch of reaches RD. It’s a sign of the mess college admissions has become. Kids ranked at the top of their their class should not feel pressured to settle for an ED1 or ED2 school they don’t love, solely out of fear of being shut out in RD.

My kid! Did not get into a single RD, nor did the salutatatorian or any of their friends. Everyone went to SCEA, ED or EA school

Valedictorians and salutatorians can get shut out too, if they don’t do REA anywhere, don’t get into their ED school, and then apply to a bunch of reaches RD. It’s a sign of the mess college admissions has become. Kids ranked at the top of their their class should not feel pressured to settle for an ED1 or ED2 school they don’t love, solely out of fear of being shut out in RD.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm Op. I realized my question wasn't clear - sorry. What I meant is if a top student follows CC advice to go for a T10 during SCEA, if she doesn't get in and applies more broadly during RD, what are the change that this applicant would get shutout by other T30 colleges due to yield management? The ones she would apply in RD include schools like Swarthmore, Harvey Mudd, Rice, Pitt, GA Tech, Brown, Lehigh. This is a science major. The ones she really wants would be HM and Brown. Thx

Sounds like counselor steering. If you love Brown, just ED . Counselor doesn’t want you to ED Brown because then they can’t honestly say the other weaker ED applicants are the best of the best. This happens every year. RD is a lot more difficult.

Also true; perhaps another T10 is the ED choice?

I would recommend Penn, but OP is in love with Brown.
Counselor steering is a real thing, sometimes messes up the high stats kids. But I think Penn non-wharton RD is a better shot than Brown RD. Cornell CAS RD is another option.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm Op. I realized my question wasn't clear - sorry. What I meant is if a top student follows CC advice to go for a T10 during SCEA, if she doesn't get in and applies more broadly during RD, what are the change that this applicant would get shutout by other T30 colleges due to yield management? The ones she would apply in RD include schools like Swarthmore, Harvey Mudd, Rice, Pitt, GA Tech, Brown, Lehigh. This is a science major. The ones she really wants would be HM and Brown. Thx

"Yield management" isn't a thing. Someone here cooked it up.

You mean "yield protection" and that's when a less-selective school waitlists someone who never showed interest. They realize that you're using them as a backup.

You are right that OP means “yield protection,” but “yield management” is a very real thing, in higher ed and in other areas as well.

Anonymous wrote:My kid was admitted to Harvard and MIT, applied to both RD because no connections or whatever. Who knows why but DC was waitlisted at a couple of lesser Ivies. Admitted to all other RD and EA schools including two from your list.

We know another kid also admitted to Harvard REA, MIT EA and rejected from Stanford RD but she was from a feeder. We know lots of kids who got into Harvard and Stanford — RD. Those two schools might be looking for similar kids.

lol so sorry I assumed HM meant Harvard and MIT from HYPMS. Good luck anyway.

My kid was admitted to Harvard and MIT, applied to both RD because no connections or whatever. Who knows why but DC was waitlisted at a couple of lesser Ivies. Admitted to all other RD and EA schools including two from your list.

We know another kid also admitted to Harvard REA, MIT EA and rejected from Stanford RD but she was from a feeder. We know lots of kids who got into Harvard and Stanford — RD. Those two schools might be looking for similar kids.

Anonymous wrote:I'm Op. I realized my question wasn't clear - sorry. What I meant is if a top student follows CC advice to go for a T10 during SCEA, if she doesn't get in and applies more broadly during RD, what are the change that this applicant would get shutout by other T30 colleges due to yield management? The ones she would apply in RD include schools like Swarthmore, Harvey Mudd, Rice, Pitt, GA Tech, Brown, Lehigh. This is a science major. The ones she really wants would be HM and Brown. Thx

"Yield management" isn't a thing. Someone here cooked it up.

You mean "yield protection" and that's when a less-selective school waitlists someone who never showed interest. They realize that you're using them as a backup.

It happens. But rare. Kids who are real candidates for HYPMS almost always land somewhere great (typically Cornell, Duke, or Georgetown from our school). That said, I can think of a handful that got unlucky and kind of fell through the cracks.

She should have applied to Pitt early. If she hasn’t applied yet, chances aren’t great.

The student will be fine as long as they have a good application strategy - if your HS counselor (not private) is telling you to REA/SCEA HYPS, it means they know who else is applying and that you at least have a shot, however remote. But I would do it only if it is your absolute first choice - at our HS, SCEA/REA to those schools is considered binding, which is the only reason they offer a slight admissions boost for uhooked students. This student would likely get into a highly selective school ED2 if they were interested in UChicago, WashU, Emory, Vanderbilt, HM. But I also think they would fare well in RD as long as the applications are very strong. Every year we have a very small number of top GPA/score kids (4.0, 1600) who get shut out of the Top20 schools they want (HYPSM+), and end up at Cornell, Georgetown, or WASP (those are schools that do not yield protect at all from our HS). The Naviance from your own HS will help a lot in finalizing your student's list. GL!