Anonymous wrote:TR will finally close the 4th Street building and try to make a go of it with just the new campus.

It's a past due decision. They have no plan to update the 4th street campus, any update still has major downsides (it is really obnoxious to have an elementary campus split between building that are across the street from each other, near a VERY busy intersection with a confusing traffic pattern -- add in the unique challenges caused by having Planned Parenthood next door and it's just an unacceptable cluster) and the school lacks the funding or financial health to invest in a new NoMA/Old City campus right now.

Moving to using Young exclusively is going to really change the school though. Would be a huge boon for JO Wilson though, especially if it happens within the next few years with JOW's new campus launching.

TR will finally close the 4th Street building and try to make a go of it with just the new campus.

Anonymous wrote:MacArthur will be the top public high school in the city 10 years from now.

Better than Walls? BASIS? Latin? They have a ways to go.

Anonymous wrote:I think 10 years after it opens, Euclid might be marginally acceptable. Frances EC and several charters will still be substantially better.

Any thoughts on MacFarland?

MacFarland is on a long-term trend toward gentrification because of its neighborhood. In ten years it will look like Bancroft, BMPV, or Powell. Right now, if you were in MacFarland, you would see the number of white (or white-appearing, e.g., including White Hispanic and mixed background) students is significant, and their parents are engaged in the school. Ten years from now, that will mean a full-on money-raising PTO and all of that. There will be much fewer English-language learners with very little English, and there will be less Black students.

Long-term, the neighborhoods of Petworth/16H/Upper Ward 1 that support MacFarland are becoming much more expensive. As it is I am surprised at how long Spanish speakers have persisted. Rents cannot be good compared to say just east of DC in Chillum or Hyattsville or wherever. Given its housing stock I think of this neighborhood long-term turning into another version of the WOTP rowhouse areas: expensive starter homes for families that later move out of DC.

In addition, Wells is becoming popular and unavailable for many. For those who can't get into DCI, Wells, etc., at least some will come to MacFarland.

A downside will probably be wariness of Roosevelt, which I think will persistently not be able to focus resources on students who don't need remedial assistance to get to minimal high school competence. Coolidge is further along in this regard, and I would be surprised if there isn't another citywide high school with advanced programming in 10 years (along with McKinley Tech growing into a third 'high income family choice.')

Anonymous wrote:I'm not really sure what is driving your predictions here. The births in DC was rising, hit a high in 2016 and is now at nearly its lowest ever. The waitlists are shorter now for many reasons but mostly because there are significantly less kids entering the lottery and a lot of upper middle class people leaving DC.

My prediction: Over the next 5 years -- some charters will be forced to close (looking at you CMI), most WOTP DCPS schools will get worse not better, as a lot of the middle/upperclass people flee dc in the next 3.3 years of this administration. MacArthur and JR will get even better -- due to financial uncertainty a lot of people WOTP that would have maybe stretched for private will opt into public options. in 5-7 years (hopefully with a positive administration change) -- things will start to shift and you will see things start to shift back to the incline from a decline...

While the birth rate has declined, a lot of that decline was in Wards 7 and 8, which probably won’t impact as many of the schools DCUM is focused on. Overall, the population of DC (so far) has been growing since COVID. This year is certainly different, but as a PP said, not all the people impacted by federal cuts reside in DC, have school aged kids/kids in DCPS, etc. I also think as the schools across the city have generally improved compared to 10 years ago, a higher proportion of kids being born in the city will stay for some or all of K-12. The PK frenzy has slowed, and there may not need to be as many charters filling those slot gaps in the future, but families are more frequently choosing to attend their in-bounds school (when that is possible).

^ should say too much time on Chromebooks

Anonymous wrote:I'm not really sure what is driving your predictions here. The births in DC was rising, hit a high in 2016 and is now at nearly its lowest ever. The waitlists are shorter now for many reasons but mostly because there are significantly less kids entering the lottery and a lot of upper middle class people leaving DC.

My prediction: Over the next 5 years -- some charters will be forced to close (looking at you CMI), most WOTP DCPS schools will get worse not better, as a lot of the middle/upperclass people flee dc in the next 3.3 years of this administration. MacArthur and JR will get even better -- due to financial uncertainty a lot of people WOTP that would have maybe stretched for private will opt into public options. in 5-7 years (hopefully with a positive administration change) -- things will start to shift and you will see things start to shift back to the incline from a decline...

I do not think CMI will close. It's still filling its seats, for now. If anything it may have to give up middle school grades. The closure of one or more Rocketship locations in the area may make it easier for CMI to fill elementary seats.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My prediction: The list of the best schools in the city, at every level, will be increasingly dominated by charters.

Only for middle school.

DCPS is by far the leader for elementary. High School is split.

No for elementary EOTP. It’s the immersion charters. Families that don’t get in then settle for DCPS.

I assume you are talking about Brookland because it's definitely not true for Capitol Hill and EOTR has a different dynamic (broad dissatisfaction with both DCPS and charters, including immersion charters, EOTR, a lot of family's first choice is a Hill DCPS and the charters preferred are more diverse than what DCUM deems acceptable).

However, I actually think the charter obsession in Brookland is declining, as I now know four families who went through DCI feeders (two YY, one MV, one DCB) who have decided against DCI. Yep, I was also shocked. Two these families went private, one moved to NW for Deal/J-R, one moved to MoCo.

The complaints against DCI include: waaaaaaay too much time on Chrome, serious staffing issues, dissatisfaction with Chinese track generally. Also issues with culture/behavior but those are from the families that went private and I think ultimately they will never be happy in a public school.

I've also seen less enthusiasm for YY generally among the families I know, though I don't entirely understand why. People seem to really love DCB. MV seems to have gotten over the major issues they had a few years ago but I still hear about families leaving in 4th or 5th, which again I think reflects a decline in enthusiasm for DCI.

Also, among the families I know who really value immersion, I've seen increasing interest in DCPS immersion schools, especially for families who want immersion but really look at and care about test scores. People seem very high on Chisolm on the Hill, and Marie Reed in NW. Also know happy families at Oyster and an increasing attitude that O-A is the best option for immersion MS in the city (yes, prefer it over DCI even without an immersion HS option, but O-A is simply not an option for most families because the boundary is so hard to buy into and it's basically impossible to lottery into.

I'm not really sure what is driving your predictions here. The births in DC was rising, hit a high in 2016 and is now at nearly its lowest ever. The waitlists are shorter now for many reasons but mostly because there are significantly less kids entering the lottery and a lot of upper middle class people leaving DC.

My prediction: Over the next 5 years -- some charters will be forced to close (looking at you CMI), most WOTP DCPS schools will get worse not better, as a lot of the middle/upperclass people flee dc in the next 3.3 years of this administration. MacArthur and JR will get even better -- due to financial uncertainty a lot of people WOTP that would have maybe stretched for private will opt into public options. in 5-7 years (hopefully with a positive administration change) -- things will start to shift and you will see things start to shift back to the incline from a decline...

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Euclid will be a moderate success. The number of upper elementary students in central city (shaw, bloomingdale, eckington) is way up. Proximity will entice some of them to stay and try it.

Agree. But still, Cardozo will be a no for high school. Eastern and Coolidge will continue to improve slowly, but maybe faster if they hit a growth spurt.

The city will reboundary and maybe zone some kids out of Coolidge, CHEC middle, and other more crowded schools. Total enrollment decline will mitigate this but not entirely solve it. The huge number of elementary schools in Ward 8 will taper a bit due to lower enrollment. Having a clear process for mergers and acquisitions will help with that.

BASIS will continue to plod along with its boosters, and will at long last get its elementary school started in a high income area.

Stokes will go through a more obviously rocky time but as the only French school, people will rally and save it. Sojourner Truth will continue to impress. Latins will Latin and DCI will DCI. MV P St will sort out its issues but the lack of a DCI guarantee will continue to put people off in the upper grades.

I don't think "plod" means what you think it means.

P.S. This is one of those DCUM moments where any reply taking issue with that strange characterization will be declared "boosterism". The structure of the approach by PP is actually kind of genius. Take a shot at something. If anyone objects they are "boosters".

I was referring to its progress on opening an elementary school. So far not much to show for it.

I think BASIS will switch to a K-12 and it will actually change the school system -- it will stop being a backup for people with bad IB schools and start being a school that's just for people who specifically want the BASIS model.

BASIS will become more successful, and possibly the bad IB schools will get better because the kids who used to consider BASIS will stay.

I do not think ther are enough such people to make a noticeable difference. It is one factor among many. In the context of the whole public system, BASIS just isn't that big a school.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Euclid will be a moderate success. The number of upper elementary students in central city (shaw, bloomingdale, eckington) is way up. Proximity will entice some of them to stay and try it.

Agree. But still, Cardozo will be a no for high school. Eastern and Coolidge will continue to improve slowly, but maybe faster if they hit a growth spurt.

The city will reboundary and maybe zone some kids out of Coolidge, CHEC middle, and other more crowded schools. Total enrollment decline will mitigate this but not entirely solve it. The huge number of elementary schools in Ward 8 will taper a bit due to lower enrollment. Having a clear process for mergers and acquisitions will help with that.

BASIS will continue to plod along with its boosters, and will at long last get its elementary school started in a high income area.

Stokes will go through a more obviously rocky time but as the only French school, people will rally and save it. Sojourner Truth will continue to impress. Latins will Latin and DCI will DCI. MV P St will sort out its issues but the lack of a DCI guarantee will continue to put people off in the upper grades.

I don't think "plod" means what you think it means.

P.S. This is one of those DCUM moments where any reply taking issue with that strange characterization will be declared "boosterism". The structure of the approach by PP is actually kind of genius. Take a shot at something. If anyone objects they are "boosters".

I was referring to its progress on opening an elementary school. So far not much to show for it.

I think BASIS will switch to a K-12 and it will actually change the school system -- it will stop being a backup for people with bad IB schools and start being a school that's just for people who specifically want the BASIS model.

BASIS will become more successful, and possibly the bad IB schools will get better because the kids who used to consider BASIS will stay.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Euclid will be a moderate success. The number of upper elementary students in central city (shaw, bloomingdale, eckington) is way up. Proximity will entice some of them to stay and try it.

Agree. But still, Cardozo will be a no for high school. Eastern and Coolidge will continue to improve slowly, but maybe faster if they hit a growth spurt.

The city will reboundary and maybe zone some kids out of Coolidge, CHEC middle, and other more crowded schools. Total enrollment decline will mitigate this but not entirely solve it. The huge number of elementary schools in Ward 8 will taper a bit due to lower enrollment. Having a clear process for mergers and acquisitions will help with that.

BASIS will continue to plod along with its boosters, and will at long last get its elementary school started in a high income area.

Stokes will go through a more obviously rocky time but as the only French school, people will rally and save it. Sojourner Truth will continue to impress. Latins will Latin and DCI will DCI. MV P St will sort out its issues but the lack of a DCI guarantee will continue to put people off in the upper grades.

I don't think "plod" means what you think it means.

P.S. This is one of those DCUM moments where any reply taking issue with that strange characterization will be declared "boosterism". The structure of the approach by PP is actually kind of genius. Take a shot at something. If anyone objects they are "boosters".

I just think you’re overreacting to one word. The PP was just saying that BASIS is what it is. No one thinks it will disappear, but no one thinks it will change much either. For the purpose of a conversation about change, there’s not very much to say about Basis.

This. It will be how it is. It may become slightly easier to get into, as will most schools, as the high school age population declines. The only thing that could really change it is developing an elementary school enough to have 4th graders taking up 5th grade seats. And even then, it would probably not be that different.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Euclid will be a moderate success. The number of upper elementary students in central city (shaw, bloomingdale, eckington) is way up. Proximity will entice some of them to stay and try it.

Agree. But still, Cardozo will be a no for high school. Eastern and Coolidge will continue to improve slowly, but maybe faster if they hit a growth spurt.

The city will reboundary and maybe zone some kids out of Coolidge, CHEC middle, and other more crowded schools. Total enrollment decline will mitigate this but not entirely solve it. The huge number of elementary schools in Ward 8 will taper a bit due to lower enrollment. Having a clear process for mergers and acquisitions will help with that.

BASIS will continue to plod along with its boosters, and will at long last get its elementary school started in a high income area.

Stokes will go through a more obviously rocky time but as the only French school, people will rally and save it. Sojourner Truth will continue to impress. Latins will Latin and DCI will DCI. MV P St will sort out its issues but the lack of a DCI guarantee will continue to put people off in the upper grades.

I don't think "plod" means what you think it means.

P.S. This is one of those DCUM moments where any reply taking issue with that strange characterization will be declared "boosterism". The structure of the approach by PP is actually kind of genius. Take a shot at something. If anyone objects they are "boosters".

I just think you’re overreacting to one word. The PP was just saying that BASIS is what it is. No one thinks it will disappear, but no one thinks it will change much either. For the purpose of a conversation about change, there’s not very much to say about Basis.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Euclid will be a moderate success. The number of upper elementary students in central city (shaw, bloomingdale, eckington) is way up. Proximity will entice some of them to stay and try it.

Agree. But still, Cardozo will be a no for high school. Eastern and Coolidge will continue to improve slowly, but maybe faster if they hit a growth spurt.

The city will reboundary and maybe zone some kids out of Coolidge, CHEC middle, and other more crowded schools. Total enrollment decline will mitigate this but not entirely solve it. The huge number of elementary schools in Ward 8 will taper a bit due to lower enrollment. Having a clear process for mergers and acquisitions will help with that.

BASIS will continue to plod along with its boosters, and will at long last get its elementary school started in a high income area.

Stokes will go through a more obviously rocky time but as the only French school, people will rally and save it. Sojourner Truth will continue to impress. Latins will Latin and DCI will DCI. MV P St will sort out its issues but the lack of a DCI guarantee will continue to put people off in the upper grades.

I don't think "plod" means what you think it means.

P.S. This is one of those DCUM moments where any reply taking issue with that strange characterization will be declared "boosterism". The structure of the approach by PP is actually kind of genius. Take a shot at something. If anyone objects they are "boosters".

I was referring to its progress on opening an elementary school. So far not much to show for it.

Anonymous wrote:Dunbar will be closed and reconstituted like Eastern, or there will be a new high school in or around Eckington.

What the heck? McKinley Tech is in Eckington and I don't know where a new school would fit.