Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I asked ChatGPT to calculate the s&p return for each 20 year period since 1950, and this is what it gave me. I didn’t check this though.
| Period | Annualized Return (%) |
| --------- | --------------------- |
| 1980–1999 | 17.89 |
| 1981–2000 | 17.01 |
| 1982–2001 | 16.45 |
| 1983–2002 | 15.98 |
| 1984–2003 | 15.52 |
| 1985–2004 | 15.07 |
| 1986–2005 | 14.63 |
| 1987–2006 | 14.20 |
| 1988–2007 | 13.78 |
| 1989–2008 | 13.37 |
| 1990–2009 | 12.97 |
| 1991–2010 | 12.58 |
| 1992–2011 | 12.20 |
| 1993–2012 | 11.83 |
| 1994–2013 | 11.47 |
| 1995–2014 | 11.12 |
| 1996–2015 | 10.78 |
| 1997–2016 | 10.45 |
| 1998–2017 | 10.13 |
| 1999–2018 | 9.82 |
| 2000–2019 | 9.52 |
| 2001–2020 | 9.23 |
| 2002–2021 | 8.95 |
| 2003–2022 | 8.68 |
| 2004–2023 | 8.41 |
| 2005–2024 | 8.15 |
| 1950–1969 | 7.90 |
| 1951–1970 | 7.65 |
| 1952–1971 | 7.41 |
| 1953–1972 | 7.17 |
| 1954–1973 | 6.94 |
| 1955–1974 | 6.71 |
| 1956–1975 | 6.49 |
| 1957–1976 | 6.27 |
| 1958–1977 | 6.06 |
| 1959–1978 | 5.85 |
| 1960–1979 | 5.65 |
| 1961–1980 | 5.45 |
| 1962–1981 | 5.26 |
| 1963–1982 | 5.07 |
| 1964–1983 | 4.89 |
| 1965–1984 | 4.71 |
| 1966–1985 | 4.54 |
| 1967–1986 | 4.37 |
| 1968–1987 | 4.20 |
| 1969–1988 | 4. |
Chatgpt? Haha
US valuations are extremely high and the US (Australia too) has been an outlier. The US has been very lucky by avoiding major catastrophe, unlike other countries that were decimated by world wars.I wouldn't bet the farm on US stocks.
US valuations are extremely high and the US (Australia too) has been an outlier. The US has been very lucky by avoiding major catastrophe, unlike other countries that were decimated by world wars.I wouldn't bet the farm on US housing.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I asked ChatGPT to calculate the s&p return for each 20 year period since 1950, and this is what it gave me. I didn’t check this though.
| Period | Annualized Return (%) |
| --------- | --------------------- |
| 1980–1999 | 17.89 |
| 1981–2000 | 17.01 |
| 1982–2001 | 16.45 |
| 1983–2002 | 15.98 |
| 1984–2003 | 15.52 |
| 1985–2004 | 15.07 |
| 1986–2005 | 14.63 |
| 1987–2006 | 14.20 |
| 1988–2007 | 13.78 |
| 1989–2008 | 13.37 |
| 1990–2009 | 12.97 |
| 1991–2010 | 12.58 |
| 1992–2011 | 12.20 |
| 1993–2012 | 11.83 |
| 1994–2013 | 11.47 |
| 1995–2014 | 11.12 |
| 1996–2015 | 10.78 |
| 1997–2016 | 10.45 |
| 1998–2017 | 10.13 |
| 1999–2018 | 9.82 |
| 2000–2019 | 9.52 |
| 2001–2020 | 9.23 |
| 2002–2021 | 8.95 |
| 2003–2022 | 8.68 |
| 2004–2023 | 8.41 |
| 2005–2024 | 8.15 |
| 1950–1969 | 7.90 |
| 1951–1970 | 7.65 |
| 1952–1971 | 7.41 |
| 1953–1972 | 7.17 |
| 1954–1973 | 6.94 |
| 1955–1974 | 6.71 |
| 1956–1975 | 6.49 |
| 1957–1976 | 6.27 |
| 1958–1977 | 6.06 |
| 1959–1978 | 5.85 |
| 1960–1979 | 5.65 |
| 1961–1980 | 5.45 |
| 1962–1981 | 5.26 |
| 1963–1982 | 5.07 |
| 1964–1983 | 4.89 |
| 1965–1984 | 4.71 |
| 1966–1985 | 4.54 |
| 1967–1986 | 4.37 |
| 1968–1987 | 4.20 |
| 1969–1988 | 4. |
Chatgpt? Haha
US valuations are extremely high and the US (Australia too) has been an outlier. The US has been very lucky by avoiding major catastrophe, unlike other countries that were decimated by world wars.I wouldn't bet the farm on US stocks.
Anonymous wrote:I asked ChatGPT to calculate the s&p return for each 20 year period since 1950, and this is what it gave me. I didn’t check this though.
| Period | Annualized Return (%) |
| --------- | --------------------- |
| 1980–1999 | 17.89 |
| 1981–2000 | 17.01 |
| 1982–2001 | 16.45 |
| 1983–2002 | 15.98 |
| 1984–2003 | 15.52 |
| 1985–2004 | 15.07 |
| 1986–2005 | 14.63 |
| 1987–2006 | 14.20 |
| 1988–2007 | 13.78 |
| 1989–2008 | 13.37 |
| 1990–2009 | 12.97 |
| 1991–2010 | 12.58 |
| 1992–2011 | 12.20 |
| 1993–2012 | 11.83 |
| 1994–2013 | 11.47 |
| 1995–2014 | 11.12 |
| 1996–2015 | 10.78 |
| 1997–2016 | 10.45 |
| 1998–2017 | 10.13 |
| 1999–2018 | 9.82 |
| 2000–2019 | 9.52 |
| 2001–2020 | 9.23 |
| 2002–2021 | 8.95 |
| 2003–2022 | 8.68 |
| 2004–2023 | 8.41 |
| 2005–2024 | 8.15 |
| 1950–1969 | 7.90 |
| 1951–1970 | 7.65 |
| 1952–1971 | 7.41 |
| 1953–1972 | 7.17 |
| 1954–1973 | 6.94 |
| 1955–1974 | 6.71 |
| 1956–1975 | 6.49 |
| 1957–1976 | 6.27 |
| 1958–1977 | 6.06 |
| 1959–1978 | 5.85 |
| 1960–1979 | 5.65 |
| 1961–1980 | 5.45 |
| 1962–1981 | 5.26 |
| 1963–1982 | 5.07 |
| 1964–1983 | 4.89 |
| 1965–1984 | 4.71 |
| 1966–1985 | 4.54 |
| 1967–1986 | 4.37 |
| 1968–1987 | 4.20 |
| 1969–1988 | 4. |
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Overall I think diversification is the correct answer to this question and there’s nothing wrong with that.
But, plenty of people get into RE because, in no particular order, they heard about it from a “rich” friend / think they are sophisticated investors / are afraid of things they don’t understand (the market/economy) / think “passive income” from their old house is their path to FIRE, etc etc.
Passive income from my old house is exactly how I got to FIRE.
Anonymous wrote:First, assuming a 10% SPY return is optimistic. Long run it’s more like 7.5%.
But to answer your question…leverage.
You can borrow 80% of the purchase price of a rental property, so your equity return is much higher from rent, plus the increase in purchase price.
Sure, you could buy stocks on margin…but that’s a risky thing to do and most won’t do it.
Also, RE provides a hedge against stock market volatility. If you owned the SPY in 1999, it went down and didn’t come back to even until 2011. In theory, an investment property would have earned a nice return of er that time period (assuming you didn’t lose it in theory financial crisis).
Anonymous wrote:1) Our rental properties aren't instead of stocks, they're in addition to stocks. Diversification.
2) Rentals can provide income without having to sell any assets;
3) Rental income is much less affected by economic downturns than stocks - this can vary by the type of rentals you have (commercial/high end/apartment) but we have units that are geared toward LMC families.
That said, it's much more hassle than just throwing a couple hundred K into stocks; you're right on that point. We have a good property management company now but it was ugly for a while there.
Anonymous wrote:Op, I'm with you, but I can do better. I did 100% return in my two tax free accounts last year, and I'm at 35% this year already. Previously, I had just at on my investments like suggested.
I think I figured it out how to get the high return. It's not luck anymore. People also don't understand how the heck do I do it tax free. How is this even a question when there's Roth account.
For the life of me I cannot get through to people how I do it. Most people I know, who ventured into investing, abandoned it instead of sticking to it and learning. I also couldn't get through to my family how we 'lost money' with three properties if I look what the stock market did at the same time.The properties were not needed. We just didn't know investment options at that time.
People also don't consider what they can learn in the market every single day while watching it and buying and selling. I learned nothing from real estate but to stay away. Happily renting now.
Anonymous wrote:1) Our rental properties aren't instead of stocks, they're in addition to stocks. Diversification.
2) Rentals can provide income without having to sell any assets;
3) Rental income is much less affected by economic downturns than stocks - this can vary by the type of rentals you have (commercial/high end/apartment) but we have units that are geared toward LMC families.
That said, it's much more hassle than just throwing a couple hundred K into stocks; you're right on that point. We have a good property management company now but it was ugly for a while there.
Anonymous wrote:Overall I think diversification is the correct answer to this question and there’s nothing wrong with that.
But, plenty of people get into RE because, in no particular order, they heard about it from a “rich” friend / think they are sophisticated investors / are afraid of things they don’t understand (the market/economy) / think “passive income” from their old house is their path to FIRE, etc etc.