Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 15:59     Subject: Is the dc re market shifting?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Checked a few Nova listings today, and was surprised to see one back on the market after being under contract for two weeks. Two others had dropped their prices by $50K.


Why are you surprised?! You all must be delusional. There are mass layoffs and job loss in the region. There is no way this doesn’t massively affect the housing market. It’s likely someone who was under contract either got spooked, lost their job, or might lose their job.

I feel bad for a lot of DMV residents because for years the story line was that this area is recession proof and real estate can only go up. Well now we are experiencing massive changes to the federal government and fewer government employees in the region.

Housing prices will likely drop 20-30% in the region.


People have been saying that on this board since it came into existence, and it's never happened. Never will happen, either.


Yes, it did -- from 2006 to 2009:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS47894Q


Close in DMV didn’t drop that much, but the reality is that home prices have never dropped very much without a huge financial crisis combined with a recession.

People forget the S&L crisis in the late 1980s fueled a big real estate bubble in CA and TX (and somewhat in DC) which then burst and combined with the early 90s recession caused home prices to decline as well as many bank failures.

Same and of course worse with the 2007/08 financial crisis.

The only other examples are places like Youngstown, OH where the population declined by like 40% over a 50 year period.

Now, if you believe the nuts tariff and other policies will cause a financial crisis…you may be correct, though banks are very well capitalized these days.


There have never been mass government and contractor layoffs like the administration is threatening/enacting, so this is unpredicted. DC will likely be in a recession by late Spring according to Bloomberg and DC is forecasting that it will take 3-4 years to return to trend growth. I don’t know if that means that GDP and job numbers will climb back to peak 2025 numbers by 2029 or if it will take longer but it’s a pretty bleak forecast for region and the housing market.

https://www.dcfpi.org/all/dc-expected-to-lose-1-billion-in-revenue-through-the-financial-plan/#:~:text=Federal%20workforce%20reductions%20will%20have,disproportionately%20represented%2C%20such%20as%20retail.


Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 15:58     Subject: Is the dc re market shifting?
There is quite a bit more inventory hitting the MLS now than there was a year ago, but at the same time there has been such a housing shortage for so long, especially in desirable locations within the beltway, that it is unlikely to depress prices and things will still sell quickly.

I think I heard an expert on WTOP this week talking about how the DMV real estate market could easily absorb a 20 to 30 % increase in inventory hitting the MLS without tipping out of a seller's market into a buyer's market.
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 08:12     Subject: Is the dc re market shifting?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Checked a few Nova listings today, and was surprised to see one back on the market after being under contract for two weeks. Two others had dropped their prices by $50K.


Why are you surprised?! You all must be delusional. There are mass layoffs and job loss in the region. There is no way this doesn’t massively affect the housing market. It’s likely someone who was under contract either got spooked, lost their job, or might lose their job.

I feel bad for a lot of DMV residents because for years the story line was that this area is recession proof and real estate can only go up. Well now we are experiencing massive changes to the federal government and fewer government employees in the region.

Housing prices will likely drop 20-30% in the region.


People have been saying that on this board since it came into existence, and it's never happened. Never will happen, either.


Yes, it did -- from 2006 to 2009:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS47894Q


Close in DMV didn’t drop that much, but the reality is that home prices have never dropped very much without a huge financial crisis combined with a recession.

People forget the S&L crisis in the late 1980s fueled a big real estate bubble in CA and TX (and somewhat in DC) which then burst and combined with the early 90s recession caused home prices to decline as well as many bank failures.

Same and of course worse with the 2007/08 financial crisis.

The only other examples are places like Youngstown, OH where the population declined by like 40% over a 50 year period.

Now, if you believe the nuts tariff and other policies will cause a financial crisis…you may be correct, though banks are very well capitalized these days.
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 07:26     Subject: Is the dc re market shifting?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Checked a few Nova listings today, and was surprised to see one back on the market after being under contract for two weeks. Two others had dropped their prices by $50K.


Why are you surprised?! You all must be delusional. There are mass layoffs and job loss in the region. There is no way this doesn’t massively affect the housing market. It’s likely someone who was under contract either got spooked, lost their job, or might lose their job.

I feel bad for a lot of DMV residents because for years the story line was that this area is recession proof and real estate can only go up. Well now we are experiencing massive changes to the federal government and fewer government employees in the region.

Housing prices will likely drop 20-30% in the region.


People have been saying that on this board since it came into existence, and it's never happened. Never will happen, either.


Yes, it did -- from 2006 to 2009:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS47894Q
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 07:01     Subject: Is the dc re market shifting?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Checked a few Nova listings today, and was surprised to see one back on the market after being under contract for two weeks. Two others had dropped their prices by $50K.


Why are you surprised?! You all must be delusional. There are mass layoffs and job loss in the region. There is no way this doesn’t massively affect the housing market. It’s likely someone who was under contract either got spooked, lost their job, or might lose their job.

I feel bad for a lot of DMV residents because for years the story line was that this area is recession proof and real estate can only go up. Well now we are experiencing massive changes to the federal government and fewer government employees in the region.

Housing prices will likely drop 20-30% in the region.


People have been saying that on this board since it came into existence, and it's never happened. Never will happen, either.
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 05:30     Subject: Is the dc re market shifting?
Anonymous wrote:Checked a few Nova listings today, and was surprised to see one back on the market after being under contract for two weeks. Two others had dropped their prices by $50K.


Why are you surprised?! You all must be delusional. There are mass layoffs and job loss in the region. There is no way this doesn’t massively affect the housing market. It’s likely someone who was under contract either got spooked, lost their job, or might lose their job.

I feel bad for a lot of DMV residents because for years the story line was that this area is recession proof and real estate can only go up. Well now we are experiencing massive changes to the federal government and fewer government employees in the region.

Housing prices will likely drop 20-30% in the region.
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 01:26     Subject: Is the dc re market shifting?
Checked a few Nova listings today, and was surprised to see one back on the market after being under contract for two weeks. Two others had dropped their prices by $50K.
Anonymous
Post 04/29/2025 22:21     Subject: Is the dc re market shifting?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:If you don't have to sell now, don't. Too much uncertainty and people are waiting to see about jobs and whether there's going to be a recession.


Disagree. List it ASAP or wait for the economy to recover.

This is my thought too. Sell right now or be prepared to wait a few years. Of course, it depends where you are moving to and how that market is impacted.
Anonymous
Post 04/29/2025 21:49     Subject: Is the dc re market shifting?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:A friend sold their home in a week. Received four offers over asking. 22101


I owned a house in California in 2008. You would be astonished how quickly home values can collapse.


What's that same house worth today? More, I bet.

Anonymous
Post 04/29/2025 21:47     Subject: Re:Is the dc re market shifting?
I'm selling a house in Bethesda and received multiple offers within a week. The short term is scary for some. At the same time, people have a lot of money around here and short-term market issues aren't a big issue for everyone. Some parents are willing and able to help their adult kids purchase a home, so that generational wealth helps, too.





Anonymous
Post 04/29/2025 11:49     Subject: Is the dc re market shifting?
"shifting" yea, no nothing is selling.
Anonymous
Post 04/29/2025 11:47     Subject: Is the dc re market shifting?
Anonymous wrote:NP. We listed our house second week of April. It's still on the market. We listed it at a price that would have been compelling two months ago. Other lower priced homes have sold but not ours. We're not sure if it makes sense for us to sell it at a lower price given the amount of equity we have. Have had a couple offers to rent it, which is what we're leaning towards, and will probably go for the 10 year plan, give or take.


It may not be a bad idea to lower the price and sell.

Run tour numbers. See how much you actually make net after all cost. Then see what you can get by putting your equity in US treasury.

If both are close then either way is fine, but I suspect rental yield will be much lower after you take account of all cost.
Anonymous
Post 04/29/2025 11:41     Subject: Is the dc re market shifting?
NP. We listed our house second week of April. It's still on the market. We listed it at a price that would have been compelling two months ago. Other lower priced homes have sold but not ours. We're not sure if it makes sense for us to sell it at a lower price given the amount of equity we have. Have had a couple offers to rent it, which is what we're leaning towards, and will probably go for the 10 year plan, give or take.
Anonymous
Post 04/29/2025 06:30     Subject: Is the dc re market shifting?
Vienna PP - these were older homes in the 1.2-1.6 range. The new builds over 2 mil are sitting.
Anonymous
Post 04/29/2025 06:29     Subject: Is the dc re market shifting?
For the NOVA posters, FCPS is also flirting with major boundary changes. This might not be on your radar if you don’t have school aged kids, but trust me that it is top of mind for potential buyers looking at the schools the house is zoned for.

I live in Vienna in a neighborhood unlikely to be affected by boundary changes, and three houses in my neighborhood all just sold within a week.