Anonymous
Post 01/13/2025 22:15     Subject: What happened to the stock market rally?

Stock market about to take a dive.
Anonymous
Post 01/13/2025 17:01     Subject: What happened to the stock market rally?

Move money into Fidelity SPAXX?
Anonymous
Post 01/13/2025 16:47     Subject: What happened to the stock market rally?

The trump fizzle?
Anonymous
Post 01/13/2025 16:43     Subject: What happened to the stock market rally?

Anonymous wrote:Here’s my opinion, it’s all about interest rates, they have moving up since before X-mas and Friday jobs report was hotter than expected. 10 yr Treasury yields 4.7%, which is competition for stocks.

I am not selling stocks, but I bought a treasury on Friday that yields 4.5%, matures 5/29, with new money so I am happy that. I will buy another at the end of the month b/c have another that matures.

Budget deficit was 1.8 Trillion in 2024, total debt is 36 Trillion, w/no real end in sight. (Both Parties have caused this.) Bond market may finally be taking notice. I saw a projection for 5.5% 10 year in 2025, and commentator said that may be conservative, reminded everyone that it was double digits in 80s.

Appreciate all serious comments, (absent the political BS).


To get to normal, long-rates should probably go higher. Frankly, you’re still getting almost no time premium for locking up your money for 5,20,30 years over T-bills. If T-bills are 4.25, it’s totally reasonable/historically average that the 30-year be 6.75, or a 2.5% spread.
Anonymous
Post 01/12/2025 19:29     Subject: What happened to the stock market rally?

Here’s my opinion, it’s all about interest rates, they have moving up since before X-mas and Friday jobs report was hotter than expected. 10 yr Treasury yields 4.7%, which is competition for stocks.

I am not selling stocks, but I bought a treasury on Friday that yields 4.5%, matures 5/29, with new money so I am happy that. I will buy another at the end of the month b/c have another that matures.

Budget deficit was 1.8 Trillion in 2024, total debt is 36 Trillion, w/no real end in sight. (Both Parties have caused this.) Bond market may finally be taking notice. I saw a projection for 5.5% 10 year in 2025, and commentator said that may be conservative, reminded everyone that it was double digits in 80s.

Appreciate all serious comments, (absent the political BS).
Anonymous
Post 01/12/2025 16:23     Subject: What happened to the stock market rally?

[twitter]
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:When people see their 401k in four years they will finally understand what a charlatan Trump is. I'm glad that in addition to retirement that we invested in real estate and own three properties that we owe a total of $80K cumulatively on. So even if the world goes to sh$t my soon to be adult children will have a place to live. The future is bleak.


These are the same hysterics you people trotted out when he was first elected. And yet the market went up an average of 18% per year under his term—I think most people would be happy seeing their 401(k) grow 18% per year (not counting new contributions) for four straight years.

Try again.


Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Try again
Anonymous
Post 01/12/2025 16:21     Subject: What happened to the stock market rally?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Are you all dumping your stocks now?


I'm buying some treasuries for sure 5% is nothing to sneeze at.

Tariffs + putting roadblocks and deportations on immigration is not a winning combination. Especially with a demographic cliff only a couple years away. Nativists are completely not ready to govern.

https://www.npr.org/2025/01/08/nx-s1-5246200/demographic-cliff-fewer-college-students-mean-fewer-graduates


NP, but that wasn't the question. If you believe what you are saying, you urgently need to not only sell all of your stocks, but to use the funds to take short positions. Are you doing so?
Anonymous
Post 01/12/2025 15:43     Subject: What happened to the stock market rally?

Anonymous wrote:Are you all dumping your stocks now?


I'm buying some treasuries for sure 5% is nothing to sneeze at.

Tariffs + putting roadblocks and deportations on immigration is not a winning combination. Especially with a demographic cliff only a couple years away. Nativists are completely not ready to govern.

https://www.npr.org/2025/01/08/nx-s1-5246200/demographic-cliff-fewer-college-students-mean-fewer-graduates
Anonymous
Post 01/12/2025 13:44     Subject: What happened to the stock market rally?

Are you all dumping your stocks now?
Anonymous
Post 01/12/2025 13:35     Subject: What happened to the stock market rally?

Anonymous wrote:When people see their 401k in four years they will finally understand what a charlatan Trump is. I'm glad that in addition to retirement that we invested in real estate and own three properties that we owe a total of $80K cumulatively on. So even if the world goes to sh$t my soon to be adult children will have a place to live. The future is bleak.


These are the same hysterics you people trotted out when he was first elected. And yet the market went up an average of 18% per year under his term—I think most people would be happy seeing their 401(k) grow 18% per year (not counting new contributions) for four straight years.

Try again.
Anonymous
Post 01/12/2025 12:56     Subject: What happened to the stock market rally?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So why did the stock market rise right after the election? It isnt any as though Trump’s rhetoric has changed since winning.


It was euphoria and also short covering (shorts need to buy stock to exit their shorts). Folks thought Trump was full of St about tariffs. Currently, he hasn't backed down. Look at the mortgage rates, they keep going up after the Fed cut interest rates! Big funds/pensions buying bonds for risk free return and selling their stocks. To all that think stocks never go down, you are going to learn something in 2025.


+1 anyone who voted for Trump because of the economy and ignored everything distasteful about this awful man is about to enter the “FO” phase of FAFO


Cope harder, losers. Bill Ackman, a DEMOCRAT hedge fund manager, recently said that the incoming Trump administration was “the most pro-growth administration in [his] lifetime.”

Or, if you prefer looking back instead of looking forward, during Trump’s first term, the S&P 500 was up 70%. It’s clear to everyone except the Trump Derangement Syndrome losers who hang around DCUM that Trump is very likely to be beneficial for the stock market.


We'll see in 1.5 weeks. Message board rants like this will be irrelevant. Let's see the effect of chaos and tariffs on the markets.


The funniest part about that rant is saying that Ackman is a Democrat. He endorsed Trump for the election! Same as Liz Cheney endorsing Harris. She may have been a Republican in the past, but isn't anymore.
Anonymous
Post 01/12/2025 11:34     Subject: What happened to the stock market rally?

When people see their 401k in four years they will finally understand what a charlatan Trump is. I'm glad that in addition to retirement that we invested in real estate and own three properties that we owe a total of $80K cumulatively on. So even if the world goes to sh$t my soon to be adult children will have a place to live. The future is bleak.
Anonymous
Post 01/12/2025 08:19     Subject: What happened to the stock market rally?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I don't understand what kind of dipshit voted for Trump based on the economy. Any halfway sane person knows he's going to be sh!t for inflation, the stock market, and the US economy. Seriously baffled how any moron could have voted for him.


I didn't vote for Trump but you are being all doom and gloom and need to calm down a little bit.

My issue isn't necessarily Trump and I would love for those who understand economics better than I do to argue against the point I will make below.

The United States cannot sustain a 3% economic growth not now not tomorrow. Without 3% real GDP growth I don't think many of the promises the GOP are making are going to materialize.


The greatest dishonest salesman will be able to package nominal GDP figures into real GDP figures and bombard the airwaves with these figures until we actually believe them. He is not going to lose the narrative around that no way. I trust our civil servants to present the true economic picture whatever it may be. But politicians not technocrats communicate economic data. And politicians are rent seekers who will say and do whatever as long as it begins them.
Anonymous
Post 01/12/2025 07:50     Subject: What happened to the stock market rally?

Anonymous wrote:I don't understand what kind of dipshit voted for Trump based on the economy. Any halfway sane person knows he's going to be sh!t for inflation, the stock market, and the US economy. Seriously baffled how any moron could have voted for him.


I didn't vote for Trump but you are being all doom and gloom and need to calm down a little bit.

My issue isn't necessarily Trump and I would love for those who understand economics better than I do to argue against the point I will make below.

The United States cannot sustain a 3% economic growth not now not tomorrow. Without 3% real GDP growth I don't think many of the promises the GOP are making are going to materialize.
Anonymous
Post 01/12/2025 07:29     Subject: What happened to the stock market rally?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So why did the stock market rise right after the election? It isnt any as though Trump’s rhetoric has changed since winning.


It was euphoria and also short covering (shorts need to buy stock to exit their shorts). Folks thought Trump was full of St about tariffs. Currently, he hasn't backed down. Look at the mortgage rates, they keep going up after the Fed cut interest rates! Big funds/pensions buying bonds for risk free return and selling their stocks. To all that think stocks never go down, you are going to learn something in 2025.


+1 anyone who voted for Trump because of the economy and ignored everything distasteful about this awful man is about to enter the “FO” phase of FAFO


Cope harder, losers. Bill Ackman, a DEMOCRAT hedge fund manager, recently said that the incoming Trump administration was “the most pro-growth administration in [his] lifetime.”

Or, if you prefer looking back instead of looking forward, during Trump’s first term, the S&P 500 was up 70%. It’s clear to everyone except the Trump Derangement Syndrome losers who hang around DCUM that Trump is very likely to be beneficial for the stock market.


We'll see in 1.5 weeks. Message board rants like this will be irrelevant. Let's see the effect of chaos and tariffs on the markets.