Anonymous wrote:It really feels eerily simple molar to the few months leading up to COVID. People noted prepping abroad and asking what we were doing here in DCUMlandia. If these countries are telling the general populace to prepare, are they canaries in the coal mine for us?

The possibilty seems to ratcheted up for a few years but the lead up feels like it is shrinking.

Are countries like Poland warning people too?

Friends and family in Poland have been "prepping" all their lives given their geography. Now some have left for more western countries but not everyone is able to relocate to another part of Europe or world.

So, are the messages to the Swedish and Finnish people more a warning message to Russia?

If Trump manages to pull the US out of NATO, will there be a serious effect on the situation? At a minimum it seems a renegotiation is in order given Europe’s newest members and increased wealth vs the US.

Anonymous wrote:I’m a bit cloudy on this, but wasnt there some deal struck with the USSR to maintain a buffer between it and NATO states. Do we consider that agreement null and void since the USSR is no more or does it persist with the new Russia but we chose to let NATO chip away at that buffer?

When Finland joined NATO, Russia gained a 1000 mile long direct border with NATO. I wonder if the geniuses in the Kremlin envisioned that their invasion of Ukraine would lead to NATO expansion. NATO is considerably stronger now than it was four years ago due both to the inclusion of the Nordic countries and a significant increase in defense spending in nearly every member country. Poland alone is set to spend 7.5 percent of GDP on defense this year. That's insane. That is war levels of spending. After Ukraine, Poland will be the most powerful military in Europe. Which is probably not what the Russians want after their miltary was destroyed by three years of fighting in Ukraine. The west is much, much stronger since the invasion.

There was a non-aggression agreement between Russia and Ukraine in 1993. Ukraine gave up the nukes that were in their country at the time the Soviet Union collapsed in exchange for security guarantees. Obviously, treaties and agreements mean nothing to Russians. They have no honor and obey no law. Their word is useless. If Ukraine had kept the nuclear weapons, there never would have been an invasion. By allowing Russia to keep its gains in Ukraine, we are incentivizing the rest of the world to make the leap to nuclear weapons.

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in a Western European country where all families received civil defense preparedness handbooks and many homes and all apartment buildings had bomb shelters as a matter of course. All males served and still serve a period of compulsory military service, and keep their service weapons at home in case of mobilization. Memories of two world wars have resulted in a least a degree of preparedness. That's merely prudence, not an indication that WWIII is imminent.

Grüezi! I don't think Switzerland needs to worry about a land invasion. The Russians will be coming at most to retrieve their cash hidden in the numbered accounts.

Nuclear fallout -- well, that would be different.

I’m a bit cloudy on this, but wasnt there some deal struck with the USSR to maintain a buffer between it and NATO states. Do we consider that agreement null and void since the USSR is no more or does it persist with the new Russia but we chose to let NATO chip away at that buffer?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nobody is concerned bout Russia opening up a war against multiple militaries. They are at their max recruiting soldiers and their Cold War stock of equipment is down significantly (although nobody know exactly how much). Even missiles, they fire them as soon as they make them. Of course they still have a large stock of the big ICBMs, so can still do damage to any country.

They had their best month in Ukraine in over 2-years and took .08% of the country (at that rate they get 1% per year). What do you think happens if they add more countries and fronts to the war? They don’t have the personnel or equipment to stock hundreds of of miles of additional frontline.

This. Russia has enough capability to continue this stalemate/war of attrition in Ukraine and obviously little else if they are bringing in North Korean troops as reinforcements. It’s in the interests of both Ukraine and Russia to settle this war quickly through negotiation and then move on.

The idea of a Russian land invasion of Finland right now is farcical. The only border incursion that Finland has to worry about are refugees. But they built their fence so they are good.

No, Ukraine really shouldn't accept anything other than a Russian withdrawal, otherwise they've shown they're just going to come back.

We should have admitted Ukraine to NATO years ago. Or we should have encouraged them to hold on to USSR's nukes during thr breakup.

Meanwhile anti-Russian sentiment is blowing up in Georgia and Abkhazia now. Putin needs to wake up from his revanchist fever dream of retaking the former Soviet sphere.

I grew up in a Western European country where all families received civil defense preparedness handbooks and many homes and all apartment buildings had bomb shelters as a matter of course. All males served and still serve a period of compulsory military service, and keep their service weapons at home in case of mobilization. Memories of two world wars have resulted in a least a degree of preparedness. That's merely prudence, not an indication that WWIII is imminent.

Russia can't get by without help from a couple of third world countries (North Korea & Iran). They are no match for the Swiss or Finns.

Anonymous wrote:Nobody is concerned bout Russia opening up a war against multiple militaries. They are at their max recruiting soldiers and their Cold War stock of equipment is down significantly (although nobody know exactly how much). Even missiles, they fire them as soon as they make them. Of course they still have a large stock of the big ICBMs, so can still do damage to any country.

They had their best month in Ukraine in over 2-years and took .08% of the country (at that rate they get 1% per year). What do you think happens if they add more countries and fronts to the war? They don’t have the personnel or equipment to stock hundreds of of miles of additional frontline.

This. Russia has enough capability to continue this stalemate/war of attrition in Ukraine and obviously little else if they are bringing in North Korean troops as reinforcements. It’s in the interests of both Ukraine and Russia to settle this war quickly through negotiation and then move on.

The idea of a Russian land invasion of Finland right now is farcical. The only border incursion that Finland has to worry about are refugees. But they built their fence so they are good.

Anonymous wrote:You chicken littles all know the real war will be with Iran not the Russians. Good luck with 7 dollar gas four years from now. You better buy a bicycle

I guess I’d just finally buy an electric car.

Problem?

They updated their civil preparedness guide, that’s it. Trump’s daddy and the Chinese are over there waving missiles around and cutting communications lines underwater, so it’s just like preparing for hurricane season. Get batteries, have an emergency supply, know where the shelters are, etc.

However, they are NATO members now, it would be pretty stupid to attack them directly.

https://apnews.com/article/sweden-finland-norway-denmark-russia-nato-war-9ebe1ca0d714cacd8ec279945598d6c1

Why would Sweden and Finland try to induce anxiety into the country?

Anonymous wrote:You chicken littles all know the real war will be with Iran not the Russians. Good luck with 7 dollar gas four years from now. You better buy a bicycle

Why not both? Why not NK? China? …?

You chicken littles all know the real war will be with Iran not the Russians. Good luck with 7 dollar gas four years from now. You better buy a bicycle