Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The DCPS lottery will automatically skew toward lower income because high income families will either do private (including being able to afford private preschool), can afford to live in an area where they don't need to do the lottery as their in-bound school is sufficient, etc.

DCPS lottery absolutely does not represent all DC kids

Sure, but the lottery definitely represents the vast majority of kids in this city.

Nope, there are about 100,000 kids age 3-18 in DChttps://datacenter.aecf.org/data/tables/6747-population-by-age-group-by-ward#detailed/3/any/false/1095,2048,574,1729,37,871,870,573,869,36/3933,214,838,123,2750/13833 and about 23,000 lottery applicants. It might be true that most kids do the lottery at some point, but I am not even sure about that.

y

I play the lottery every year for both my kids.

Well, I don't. Just until they are in an acceptable school. So, you know, some people do play the lottery every year and some don't.

Anonymous wrote:What do we think the equity spots will mean for how the waitlists move?

If you look at last year's data, you will see the equitable access seats are completely separate from the regular lottery. So one would assume the EA wait-list is completely separate.

Okay, sorry for availability bias. In both our previous school and our current school, our kid was friends with someone who was one of four sibs, and also made friends with a kid from DPR class who was one of four.


(I also know an DC upper class family with four kids, not trying to imply it's only poor families that are large)

Anonymous wrote:https://dcps.dc.gov/page/dcps-glance-enrollment

47% of students are at risk, which means either poor or held back a year. Those of you who are questioning, remember that it's not uncommon that poor families have four, five or six kids.... There are the kids being raised by grandparents, and don't forget all the new arrivals from Venezuela etc., who may not even have work authorization.

It's not that common. 1.7 percent of households in Washington DC have more than six members, per the city.

What do we think the equity spots will mean for how the waitlists move?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are in DC now more students in families that qualify for TANF/SNAP benefits post-pandemic than there were pre-pandemic.

Has the qualification process for TANF/SNAP tightened up? Ten years ago if was pretty easy to game. (A professional, full employed neighbor signed up by showing an empty bank account). If not, maybe it's a backdoor to the school lottery

This is DC. Nobody checks anything.

SNAP was particularly easy to (incorrectly) qualify for a few years ago. Not sure if that's changed or if it's the new cheat code for the school lottery.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:BASIS classes are going to be even smaller. No way at-risk kids make it through that system.

I'm not naive: They are likely less prepared and will need help catching up, and will probably drop out at a higher rate than average. But assuming failure is just wrong, both factually and morally. Honestly, part of the attraction of Basis is the lower share of higher need students. We came from an elementary school where the administration's attitude, sometimes explicitly stated, was "We're going to have to give your kids less attention because they are going to be OK anyway, and there are kids with higher needs." But adding a couple of at-risk students per element is not going to be a drag on the rest of the students.

DP. I'm not sure naive is the right word since you seem to have gathered the pieces but not put them together. Any true data will have to be gathered over time, but I suspect, as you mentioned, that at-risk students will likely move out at a higher rate (though obviously the hope is that there are some who will stick it out and receive any help catching up that they receive). The tyranny of the pipeline math is that if Basis doesn't up the size of the incoming class (if they can even support a larger 5th grade) or figure out a way to on-ramp kids after 5th to anticipate this, then a subset with at reduced rate of return will translate into even smaller HS classes in the future (possibly combined with a few who are "stranded" in a poor match unless they maintain better options to transfer later with at-risk status). I'm not arguing against at-risk admissions. It just needs to be properly considered.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:BASIS classes are going to be even smaller. No way at-risk kids make it through that system.

I'm not naive: They are likely less prepared and will need help catching up, and will probably drop out at a higher rate than average. But assuming failure is just wrong, both factually and morally. Honestly, part of the attraction of Basis is the lower share of higher need students. We came from an elementary school where the administration's attitude, sometimes explicitly stated, was "We're going to have to give your kids less attention because they are going to be OK anyway, and there are kids with higher needs." But adding a couple of at-risk students per element is not going to be a drag on the rest of the students.

Would be very interesting to see data. Anecdotally, the at-risk kids are disruptive, don't want to be there, don't do the work, and we don't expect them to return after 6th.

Anonymous wrote:https://dcps.dc.gov/page/dcps-glance-enrollment

47% of students are at risk, which means either poor or held back a year. Those of you who are questioning, remember that it's not uncommon that poor families have four, five or six kids.... There are the kids being raised by grandparents, and don't forget all the new arrivals from Venezuela etc., who may not even have work authorization.

DC has an extremely broad definition of who is "at risk."

https://dcps.dc.gov/page/dcps-glance-enrollment

47% of students are at risk, which means either poor or held back a year. Those of you who are questioning, remember that it's not uncommon that poor families have four, five or six kids.... There are the kids being raised by grandparents, and don't forget all the new arrivals from Venezuela etc., who may not even have work authorization.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The DCPS lottery will automatically skew toward lower income because high income families will either do private (including being able to afford private preschool), can afford to live in an area where they don't need to do the lottery as their in-bound school is sufficient, etc.

DCPS lottery absolutely does not represent all DC kids

Sure, but the lottery definitely represents the vast majority of kids in this city.

Nope, there are about 100,000 kids age 3-18 in DChttps://datacenter.aecf.org/data/tables/6747-population-by-age-group-by-ward#detailed/3/any/false/1095,2048,574,1729,37,871,870,573,869,36/3933,214,838,123,2750/13833 and about 23,000 lottery applicants. It might be true that most kids do the lottery at some point, but I am not even sure about that.

y

I play the lottery every year for both my kids.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are in DC now more students in families that qualify for TANF/SNAP benefits post-pandemic than there were pre-pandemic.

Has the qualification process for TANF/SNAP tightened up? Ten years ago if was pretty easy to game. (A professional, full employed neighbor signed up by showing an empty bank account). If not, maybe it's a backdoor to the school lottery

This is DC. Nobody checks anything.

There is a big uptick in lottery applicants for ECE, 5th, 6th, and 9th. Less participation for other years.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The DCPS lottery will automatically skew toward lower income because high income families will either do private (including being able to afford private preschool), can afford to live in an area where they don't need to do the lottery as their in-bound school is sufficient, etc.

DCPS lottery absolutely does not represent all DC kids

Sure, but the lottery definitely represents the vast majority of kids in this city.

Nope, there are about 100,000 kids age 3-18 in DChttps://datacenter.aecf.org/data/tables/6747-population-by-age-group-by-ward#detailed/3/any/false/1095,2048,574,1729,37,871,870,573,869,36/3933,214,838,123,2750/13833 and about 23,000 lottery applicants. It might be true that most kids do the lottery at some point, but I am not even sure about that.

Anonymous wrote:BASIS classes are going to be even smaller. No way at-risk kids make it through that system.

I'm not naive: They are likely less prepared and will need help catching up, and will probably drop out at a higher rate than average. But assuming failure is just wrong, both factually and morally. Honestly, part of the attraction of Basis is the lower share of higher need students. We came from an elementary school where the administration's attitude, sometimes explicitly stated, was "We're going to have to give your kids less attention because they are going to be OK anyway, and there are kids with higher needs." But adding a couple of at-risk students per element is not going to be a drag on the rest of the students.