Anonymous wrote:The public will get frustrated and will demand that rates go down to below 5-6%, especially in the election year.

That's not how the Fed works.

Interest rates will be over 7% for years.

So are you going to pay 10%?

Anonymous wrote:The public will get frustrated and will demand that rates go down to below 5-6%, especially in the election year.

And the public always gets what it wants. Like gun control, abortion rights, low prescription prices... Yeah. That'll happen.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:40 percent of homes have zero mortgage on the United States. So what is their reason for not moving?

Many of that 40% is retirees/near-retirees who intend to age in place anyways (which is fine, it’s what I will want to do in the future).

In the past a lot of the housing turnover comes from people in the 30-50 age range who in the past have moved up the property ladder from condo-townhouse-SFH. This is the group that is not moving right now, because it’s nuts to go from that townhouse at 3% into a SFH at 7.4%

A poster above claims it is only 2020-2022 buyers locked in with the golden handcuffs of ultra-low rates, but they forget that so many existing homeowners refinanced in that timeframe.

This is us. When we bought in 2020, the SFHs were 100-200k more than our townhouse, which we thought we could work up to in a few years, so we tried to buy the financially conservative smaller home to be responsible. Oops! Now the SFHs are 300k more and with the higher interest rates they would be almost triple our monthly payment even with our savings and equity. I definitely wanted this TH to be a starter house, but I definitely don't have the disposable income to make the kind of shift it would require now.

The public will get frustrated and will demand that rates go down to below 5-6%, especially in the election year.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We bought in 2021 at 3.8% interest rate and we will never leave the house. I feel badly for people trying to buy now.

We bought in 1996 at over 8% and still live here. People shouldn’t move very often once they have purchased a house.

Bought in 2002 at 5.375% and still here. Will sell and buy next year because I am downsizing.

Anonymous wrote:40 percent of homes have zero mortgage on the United States. So what is their reason for not moving?

And home prices really only shot up the last three to ten years. My section very few homes turn over and even the 60 percent with mortgages most of my neighbors have smaller mortgages.

I myself am down to $385k on a $1.5 million home.

Only people trapped by rates are 20-22 peak buyers with little down who locked in generational low rates. My neighbor who bought a fixer upper my block in 2016 is hardly locked in. Already paid 8 years of mortgage and bought it cheap,

They aren't moving from their paid off houses because they can't afford to downsize.

We could sell our house and make money, but just enough to pay cash for a smaller house in worse condition in a worse neighborhood. Or maybe an out of date condo in a decent neighborhood.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Captain Obvious strikes again.

Really? We were told in 2020 just wait...there's a deluge of properties coming to market

You should’ve bought in 2021 or 2022. It’s too late now.

Already taken care of

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Captain Obvious strikes again.

Really? We were told in 2020 just wait...there's a deluge of properties coming to market

You should’ve bought in 2021 or 2022. It’s too late now.

Refinanced in April 2022, 30 year 2.875%. Never leaving.

I think rates will come down by Spring but maybe only to 6%. I mean it takes awhile to lower. Not like we start at 7 and 3 months lower a whole percentage point. It's just not how rates work!

I agree 2-3% rates are not norm. BUT I also think US will be in for a more bumpy econ experience over the next few years. Based not just on political events but combo of factors incl climate change and natural disasters likely impacting food and material costs and population making for more inflation aka greed. I think as a result, it may not be as certain that we need to wait another 40 years before rates change. In fact I think it will fluctuate more than ever. I think it takes only a yr to go up to a 1.5-2% difference in extreme cases so it's very possible we will be up and down quite a bit.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:40 percent of homes have zero mortgage on the United States. So what is their reason for not moving?

Many of that 40% is retirees/near-retirees who intend to age in place anyways (which is fine, it’s what I will want to do in the future).

In the past a lot of the housing turnover comes from people in the 30-50 age range who in the past have moved up the property ladder from condo-townhouse-SFH. This is the group that is not moving right now, because it’s nuts to go from that townhouse at 3% into a SFH at 7.4%

A poster above claims it is only 2020-2022 buyers locked in with the golden handcuffs of ultra-low rates, but they forget that so many existing homeowners refinanced in that timeframe.

I work at a bank most of refinance crowd were into 15 year mortgages or even 10 year. They have quick principal pay downs. Which means they become mainly principal pretty quick.

Anonymous wrote:40 percent of homes have zero mortgage on the United States. So what is their reason for not moving?

Many of that 40% is retirees/near-retirees who intend to age in place anyways (which is fine, it’s what I will want to do in the future).

In the past a lot of the housing turnover comes from people in the 30-50 age range who in the past have moved up the property ladder from condo-townhouse-SFH. This is the group that is not moving right now, because it’s nuts to go from that townhouse at 3% into a SFH at 7.4%

A poster above claims it is only 2020-2022 buyers locked in with the golden handcuffs of ultra-low rates, but they forget that so many existing homeowners refinanced in that timeframe.

40 percent of homes have zero mortgage on the United States. So what is their reason for not moving?

And home prices really only shot up the last three to ten years. My section very few homes turn over and even the 60 percent with mortgages most of my neighbors have smaller mortgages.

I myself am down to $385k on a $1.5 million home.

Only people trapped by rates are 20-22 peak buyers with little down who locked in generational low rates. My neighbor who bought a fixer upper my block in 2016 is hardly locked in. Already paid 8 years of mortgage and bought it cheap,